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eleccion 2012
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periodista-masajista



Joined: 13 Jun 2005
Posts: 54
Location: Amarillo, Texas, USA

PostPosted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:08 pm    Post subject: eleccion 2012 Reply with quote

Hello folks. I'm very interested in what Dave's forum participants have to say about the upcoming elections in Mexico. Political discussion can be a bit contentious of course, but since this board is pretty closely moderated and posters are generally quite respectful of one another, I'm hoping that some informative discussion could occur without too much sangre being shed.

I have an ulterior motive. Not only am I interested just because I love Mexico, but also because I'm a journalist and I want to learn more for professional purposes. I'm not a political reporter...right now I'm an editor for a mid-sized daily newspaper in Texas. But my Spanish reading comprehension is inadequate for easy news-gathering from Spanish-language websites and political news in English about Mexico is pretty sparse.

To get things rolling, here's a blog post about the Mexican elections I made back in August. Any thoughts? Please feel free to be candid if you think something is incorrect, misleading or incomplete. This topic is far from a professional speciality of mine...mainly just a matter of personal interest at the moment.

http://amarillo.com/blog-post/mark-haslett/2011-08-16/haslett-mexico-force-past-eyes-future

Hopefully other posters will appreciate a thread devoted to this topic since it's obviously a big deal. I understand that foreigners are forbidden from particpating in Mexican politics, but hopefully people will feel comfortable offering their opinions, inisghts and questions in this format.
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Phil_K



Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 1818
Location: A World of my Own

PostPosted: Sun Oct 09, 2011 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apart from the absence of accents (Calderón) and tildas (Peña Nieto) - pendantic maybe, but I think it can jar with those who know Spanish - a pretty clear and precise summing up of the situation.

I take issue with Cordero as PAN candidate . I, and the polls, don't think he has a cat-in-hell's chance, and would say it's between Creel and Josefina Vázquez Mota.

Due to a lack of time today, I can't really add anything, but will be delighted to join the debate during the week, as this is one of my favourite topics!
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9395
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As much as I dislike the PRD, I would like to see Ebrard winning the presidency if he could lead through a fractured congress. It's rather chilling to think that Nieto is the frontrunner at the moment. Mexico has come so far since throwing off the shackles of the PRI, it would be a shame to roll back a century.
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Phil_K



Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 1818
Location: A World of my Own

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I would like to see Ebrard winning the presidency


Why? (...and my avatar seems appropriate is this case! Laughing)
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9395
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Ebrard has done very well in DF in bringing the right programs online and infrastructure improvements. AMLO was a slick populist whereas Ebrard is a consensus builder. That doesn't necessarily scale up to the national level of course, but I'd like to see him try.

I have yet to hear much out of Ebrard on foreign policy on major national issues, so I could change my mind quickly if slips into an AMLO-like campaign.
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BadBeagleBad



Joined: 23 Aug 2010
Posts: 824

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guy Courchesne wrote:
As much as I dislike the PRD, I would like to see Ebrard winning the presidency if he could lead through a fractured congress. It's rather chilling to think that Nieto is the frontrunner at the moment. Mexico has come so far since throwing off the shackles of the PRI, it would be a shame to roll back a century.


Really? I think Ebrard is about as out of touch with reality as the bozo at Hacienda who said a family of 4 could easily live on 6000 pesos a month, while paying for a home, a car and private school tuition. But, my God, if it was between him and Peña Nieto, I might have to back Ebrard, as much as it turns my stomach to even write it. Can´t we do any better than this?
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globalcitizen1968



Joined: 03 Oct 2011
Posts: 34

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 5:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BadBeagleBad wrote:
Can´t we do any better than this?


Nope. Mexico is too corrupt and backwards.
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Phil_K



Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 1818
Location: A World of my Own

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to agree with BBB. Ebrard would be a disaster. The infrastructure changes amount to a few Metrobús routes and roads, which, it is said, (admittedly I have no proof), were built using companies where Ebrard has a financial interest. The real infrastructure changes necessary are in the systems of policing and justice.

Another example of Ebrard's "good work" is the lack of funds for Panista delegations, such as mine (Benito Juárez). Hardly the act of an aspiring democratic president!

Another - the permission given to demonstrators to occupy Zócalo, right in front of the city government offices and in the heart of the tourist zone. A great image of Mexico!

One thing that can be said in AMLO's favour is that he has a project, something lacking in current, and past, aspirants. Of course, no way am I advocating AMLO for president, but where is the candidate that actually addresses the real problems that Mexico faces?

In my humble opinion, the recovery starts with three things.

1) A restructuring of the police into a single national force, where a policeman is a policeman and is responible for crime prevention, investigation, traffic, etc. Not workable? It works in the UK!

2) A policy of zero tolerance. This starts with the very basics. What many people fail to grasp is the oak tree from acorns principle, where even the smallest crime is punished, thereby creating a culture of respect for the law, and the law-enforcers, which can only grow.

That means not relocating ambulantes, but banning them from doing their activities, and in the case of re-offending, jailing them.

That means recognizing the right of a motorist who knocks over a cyclist or pedestrian, when the cyclist or pedestrian is clearly the one to blame.

That means the power of citizens' arrest.

3) Make government and police accountable, giving the citizen the means to easily report and follow up any irregularities, without being inconvenienced in his daily life.

Just a few ideas to chew over. I could write a manifesto! But where is the candidate that can think radically, rather than spout the same old platitudes?

If you want to put me on the spot, and I were eligible to vote, I'd have to go with the PAN, for continuity, and preferably, Vázquez Mota, but I know I'd be looking forward to more of the same.
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9395
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Roads, 3 metrobus lines, eco-bici, ciclopista, the supervia, pedestrian only Madero and other streets al centro, and a new metro line are a considerable number of projects to undertake...considerably more than his predecessor who put up a predictably useless 01-800 line to see if people wanted a new second level or a metro line (early 2002, the beginnings of his presidential run). I wasn't aware of controversy on the companies used though...that's not a good sign.

For programs, I was thinking of Red Angel, Plan Verde, and Seguros Popular coming into play. For projects, I was definitely NOT thinking about silly artificial beaches and that Zocalo skating rink (waste of money). Not sure I care one way or another about legislation introduced on same-sex marriage. Changes to abortion laws addressed a critical issue here and demonstrate leadership on solving problems.

Quote:
2) A policy of zero tolerance. This starts with the very basics. What many people fail to grasp is the oak tree from acorns principle, where even the smallest crime is punished, thereby creating a culture of respect for the law, and the law-enforcers, which can only grow.


No willingness to give Ebrard credit on this one? The DF government has shown an attempt to apply a Broken Windows type agenda by focusing on quality of life issues (still a long way to go of course), such as strengthening the Ley de Comodidad y Convivencia (sp?), tackling ambulantes in certain areas, and strengthening the vehicle emissions inspection regime. A great next step here would be to fund an increase in the tow truck system to tackle parking issues. It could pay for itself quite easily on fines and help alter the culture of poor driver habits.

Quote:
If you want to put me on the spot, and I were eligible to vote, I'd have to go with the PAN, for continuity, and preferably, Vázquez Mota, but I know I'd be looking forward to more of the same.


For the moment, I'd agree with that at the federal level. Ebrard can't win at the national level unless he goes AMLO to rapidly bring his profile up. The things that have worked well in DF are not the same issues that a whole nation faces. PAN would represent continuity at least.
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Phil_K



Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 1818
Location: A World of my Own

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, for sure you've mentioned a few projects that I hadn't thought of, and I could be cynical and say, just like AMLO, he's buying his candidature! (But I won't, as it's a case of damned if you do, damned if you don't!) But my point about a "project", is a project for government. All the rest is just pan y circo. Giving people bikes to play with, (and without any educación vial) isn't going to solve the basics.
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BadBeagleBad



Joined: 23 Aug 2010
Posts: 824

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And, of course, there are two sides to every story. I live along the new Metrobus line. One whole street is closed all the way from Eduardo Molina to downtown. There happen to be more than a few stores that I (used to) patronize along this stretch. But you can´t get to them because even the sidewalks are closed in many places. A few business have already closed, just since July, when they started. Any idea how many families that is affecting? And I am not talking about ambulantes, that is another whole issue, but I will admit, I do have sympathy for them, they are, for the most part, just people trying to make a living. I am talking about established businesses. Why not do a stretch of the road at a time and then advance so that the businesses are effected for a short period of time and not for the whole construction period? This is good planning? And, how many people along this route will take the Metrobus, which is going to cost 6 pesos, instead of the 3 a micro costs, or the 2 a bus costs? I know lots of people who already wait for a bus to save one peso, so I know they will wait for one to save 4 pesos. Not me, no, but I would say a large percentage of the people who live along large parts of the route. I´ll give him that the Metrobus will be nice when it is done. For some people. But I don´t think the project was well planned. And if the ¨progress¨ I have seen since July is any indication, it is NOT going to be anywhere near done in January.
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notamiss



Joined: 20 Jun 2007
Posts: 853
Location: El 5o pino del DF

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The horrifying events in San Juan Ixtayopan, Tlahuac on November 23, 2004 happened under Ebrard's watch when he was Secretario de Seguridad Pública. It's not just that the townspeople beat and burned 3 police officers, 2 of whom died, but that the dozens of police troops sent in to deal with the situation stood around the perimeter of the crowd and watched… helpless to interfere? colluding with the townspeople? I've never heard a clear accounting of why they were unable to act to stop the violence.

To believe in Ebrard, I'd have to believe that he's matured vastly as a leader over the last 7 years, so that when faced with a crisis he would not be paralyzed by… indecision? incompetence? whatever it was that stayed his hand that night.
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Phil_K



Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 1818
Location: A World of my Own

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
And I am not talking about ambulantes, that is another whole issue, but I will admit, I do have sympathy for them, they are, for the most part, just people trying to make a living


Hmm, I'm just trying to make a living as well, and it's a lot of hard work. The difference is that I have to go through the proper channels and pay my taxes and expenses. If I don't, I'll likely end up in jail. At the same time, I don't affect the lives of anyone else in a negative way and I contribute to the well-being of the country instead of making it an eyesore.

Just a thought: how would you feel if you had to make your progress in a wheelchair or electric invalid carriage, and had that progress impeded by impromptu outdoor restaurants?

I'm just the same. If I don't do business, I don't have money, I don't eat properly...

What's the difference?
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9395
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

notamiss wrote:
The horrifying events in San Juan Ixtayopan, Tlahuac on November 23, 2004 happened under Ebrard's watch when he was Secretario de Seguridad Pública. It's not just that the townspeople beat and burned 3 police officers, 2 of whom died, but that the dozens of police troops sent in to deal with the situation stood around the perimeter of the crowd and watched… helpless to interfere? colluding with the townspeople? I've never heard a clear accounting of why they were unable to act to stop the violence.

To believe in Ebrard, I'd have to believe that he's matured vastly as a leader over the last 7 years, so that when faced with a crisis he would not be paralyzed by… indecision? incompetence? whatever it was that stayed his hand that night.


Whole thing swept under the rug I imagine. I remember this story well but not if anything ever came of it later. Remember, those officers were lynched because they were photographing children in that neighbourhood and the immediate suspicion was that they were part of a kidnap gang working that area. Angry parents and neighbours took the law into their own hands.

Then president Fox tried to intervene but I think the feds and city were gunshy after what happened at Texcoco when they planned to put an airport there.
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BadBeagleBad



Joined: 23 Aug 2010
Posts: 824

PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have the advantage of having education and skills that enable you to earn a living. Having gotten to know some of these people, as well as a lot of people who clean houses for a living, I have found that a lot of them have no way to pay taxes, even if they wanted to. That is, they are people without a state. They have no birth certificate, no papers, no way to get an official job. I am not saying that is the case with all of them, but I know it is with a lot of them. My BIL´s houseboy, or whatever you want to call him, as well as his partner (they can´t get married because neither of them are people) are one such case. He knows he was born in Veracruz, he was dropped off in Mexico City when he was 12 or 13, lived on the streets for a while, my MIL took him in. He worked for her running errands in return for room and board. They tried without success to find his family or get him some kind of papers. This was around 25 years ago. No luck. About 5 years ago there was some kind of program to try to help people in his situation, but he was not able to fulfill any of the requirements, so again, no papers. He is barely literate. The woman´s story is pretty much the same. They work for my BIL for room and board and a small salary. And there are lots of people like that. My husband employs a couple of people like that as well. It is a huge problem. So while I can understand not wanting to be ¨bothered¨ as you are walking down the street, try putting yourself in their shoes. What are they to do, then? Become criminals?
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