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Mexico vs Iraq!
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Prof.Gringo



Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 4:49 pm    Post subject: Mexico vs Iraq! Reply with quote

How does the drug war in Mexico compare with the insurgency in Iraq?

Just take a look:

"The killings reached their highest level in 2010, jumping by almost 60 percent to 15,273 deaths from 9,616 the previous year."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110113/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_drug_war_mexico

"According to an AFP tally based on figures from the three ministries released over the course of 2010, a total of 3,605 Iraqi civilians, police and army personnel were killed last year -- 124 more than the 3,481 who were killed in 2009."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110101/wl_mideast_afp/iraqunresttoll

Looks like Iraq is safer than Mexico.

The trend is that Iraq has been reducing it's violence and in Mexico, it's on the rise.
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TeresaLopez



Joined: 18 Apr 2010
Posts: 601
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just for the sake of balance how about this article:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2010/1229/How-once-feared-Mexico-City-has-become-the-country-s-safest-spot
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Prof.Gringo



Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TeresaLopez wrote:
Just for the sake of balance how about this article:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2010/1229/How-once-feared-Mexico-City-has-become-the-country-s-safest-spot


I am all about fair and balanced.

But the numbers speak for themselves.

Far more dead in Mexico in 2010 than in Iraq.
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LH123



Joined: 13 Jun 2010
Posts: 61

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The figures speak for themselves, assuming they are accurate (and there is no reason to doubt they are).

And yet, Iraq seems to be more on people's consciences than Mexico does. I suspect that this is because the situation in Iraq is much juicier, geopolitically speaking, than that of Mexico - or, at least, it is perceived to be.

Does this mean, though, that Iraq is "safer" than Mexico? There are more factors at work determining a country's safety (as a foreign visitor, presumably) than tallying up how many murders there are in each place.
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Prof.Gringo



Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LH123 wrote:
The figures speak for themselves, assuming they are accurate (and there is no reason to doubt they are).

And yet, Iraq seems to be more on people's consciences than Mexico does. I suspect that this is because the situation in Iraq is much juicier, geopolitically speaking, than that of Mexico - or, at least, it is perceived to be.

Does this mean, though, that Iraq is "safer" than Mexico? There are more factors at work determining a country's safety (as a foreign visitor, presumably) than tallying up how many murders there are in each place.


Thanks for the post. Mexico has a well developed tourism industry and there are monetary interests at work to try and keep that going. Same goes for EFL. There is a need for a constant influx of native-speaker newbies for Mexico but the wages are simply not worth it. Mexico is NOT safe right now.

I think that Mexico can still go either way, but it seems to be going downhill. I wonder how long the cartels will allow themselves to be attacked before they unite and try to actually topple the Mexican govt.?
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LH123



Joined: 13 Jun 2010
Posts: 61

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I wonder how long the cartels will allow themselves to be attacked before they unite and try to actually topple the Mexican govt.?


Much as (almost) happened in Colombia a few years back?

I suspect that the United States would be keen to avoid that. Not out of any moral or humanitarian concern, rather as a result of it preferring a politically stable neighbour.

I'm with The Economist on this one, the only real solution to this issue would be the legalisation of drugs (which itself is far from a panacea, admittedly). But, that is such a distant possibility that even mentioning it is quite academic.

I'd tentatively predict that, as happened with Colombia a few years ago, the United States will begin flexing its muscles militarily in Mexico to a far greater extent, for better or worse.
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9650
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Mexico vs Iraq!


Mexico would win, hands down. Are we talking football? Wink

Quote:
I'm with The Economist on this one, the only real solution to this issue would be the legalisation of drugs (which itself is far from a panacea, admittedly). But, that is such a distant possibility that even mentioning it is quite academic.


This has come up in the media here in Mexico from time to time and both the people and government come out strongly against it. Mexican president Calderon had some strong words when California's drug legalization proposal was up late last year. The argument here was that if Mexico is doing so much to clamp down on cartels, legalization mocks the effort.

Quote:
I'd tentatively predict that, as happened with Colombia a few years ago, the United States will begin flexing its muscles militarily in Mexico to a far greater extent, for better or worse.


Very tough sell here in Mexico...I can't see it happening beyond bilateral agreements that already exist such as Plan Merida involving training and equipment. Colombia faced an organized army that fights an ideological war and is backed by other countries...very political. Mexico faces cartels that fight each other and have no political ideology or state sponsors...no goal beyond moving drugs.

Tough to compare Iraq and Mexico on safety I think. Safe for whom is a starter question. Iraq's struggles are religious, political and subject to a lot of outside interference (Iran, Al-Qaeda, the West). Violence there is a bomb going off in a marketplace, or a mosque targeting innocents. Mexico's violence is more specific to drug cartel members, with innocents not targeted (though sometimes getting caught in the crossfire).

You can compare both countries on one factor easily though...both have regions of violence and regions of safety. I remember seeing ads for EFL jobs in Mosul and Kirkuk as early as summer 2003 before they even found Saddam, and those areas have been relatively safe all through the war. Baghdad and a few other locations have seen the brunt of random and sectarian violence. Mexico is similar, with some southern and coastal areas registering murders in the single digits for a year. You can track nearly all of the drug cartel violence to just 3 border states (of 31 states total).

Quote:
Just for the sake of balance how about this article:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2010/1229/How-once-feared-Mexico-City-has-become-the-country-s-safest-spot


Nice...something you learn when you live in Mexico City for a time but from outside, some ideas persist.
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TeresaLopez



Joined: 18 Apr 2010
Posts: 601
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Thu Jan 13, 2011 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prof.Gringo wrote:



Mexico is NOT safe right now.




How can you state that a whole country is not safe? So Chihuahua is no different from a small town in Zacatecas, which had only 10 drug related murders in the whole state last year. Or small towns all over Mexico who have one or two murders a DECADE?? That isn�t safe?


Last edited by TeresaLopez on Sat Jan 15, 2011 4:32 am; edited 1 time in total
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jpvanderwerf2001



Joined: 02 Oct 2003
Posts: 1117
Location: New York

PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LH123 wrote:
Quote:
I wonder how long the cartels will allow themselves to be attacked before they unite and try to actually topple the Mexican govt.?


Much as (almost) happened in Colombia a few years back?

I suspect that the United States would be keen to avoid that. Not out of any moral or humanitarian concern, rather as a result of it preferring a politically stable neighbour.

I'm with The Economist on this one, the only real solution to this issue would be the legalisation of drugs (which itself is far from a panacea, admittedly). But, that is such a distant possibility that even mentioning it is quite academic.

I'd tentatively predict that, as happened with Colombia a few years ago, the United States will begin flexing its muscles militarily in Mexico to a far greater extent, for better or worse.


Or for worse? How would that be?
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Prof.Gringo



Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!

PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TeresaLopez wrote:
Prof.Gringo wrote:



Mexico is NOT safe right now.




How can you state that a whole country is not safe? So Chihuahua is no different from a small town in Zacatecas, which had only 10 drug related murders in the whole year last year. Or small towns all over Mexico who have one or two murders a DECADE?? That isn�t safe?


But those so-called "safe" towns are not listed in some kind of guide. And what may be "safe" today could explode as the next hot-spot in the drug WAR.

I am sure there are some safe areas of Iraq (in the Kurdish controlled north, for example) but that doesn't mean folks are jumping on airplanes to go and have a look.
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9650
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 3:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I am sure there are some safe areas of Iraq (in the Kurdish controlled north, for example) but that doesn't mean folks are jumping on airplanes to go and have a look.


Good point to illustrate another difference between Iraq and Mexico. Iraq isn't exactly a tourist destination. Mexico continues to attract millions of tourist each year. The question of which is more dangerous is spelled out by the numbers as stated earlier.

Here's a question...would you(anyone) take a job in Mosul? I am not sure I could.
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johnslat



Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA

PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The situation in Mexico reminds me of how it often is in the Middle East. It seemed like every year, as I was getting ready to go back from summer vacation, there'd be some major "disturbance" there (very heavily covered by the media) that would give me pause. I'd wonder, "Hmm, it looks pretty bad; should I go back?"

And, of course, every time it would turn out to be a non-issue. When I got back there, life was exactly the same (i.e. boring but quite safe) as when I'd left.

Watch too much TV news, read too many papers and you might end up never leaving your house.

Regards,
John


Last edited by johnslat on Fri Jan 14, 2011 4:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Enigma2011



Joined: 28 Dec 2010
Posts: 60

PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Prof.Gringo wrote:

There is a need for a constant influx of native-speaker newbies for Mexico but the wages are simply not worth it.


I agree, but I keep hearing that if one gets the qualifications, MA, CELTA, DELTA, things will turn around and one will make more money that what they see advertised.
I have yet to hear from one in Mexico who can make it ON THEIR OWN without the help of a spouse, SS or a Pension from the States. I only know of some who live off of their wives when their unrealistic ideas keep failing, or their husbands REAL job and his properties, or the total lack of experience from newbies who don't have a clue about Mexico.
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Prof.Gringo



Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 2236
Location: Dang Cong San Viet Nam Quang Vinh Muon Nam!

PostPosted: Fri Jan 14, 2011 10:17 pm    Post subject: 2011, Off to a GREAT start in Mexico! Reply with quote

The latest from the war in Mexico:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110114/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/lt_drug_war_mexico

"About 100 soldiers, marines and police located a drug gang safe house in the state capital of Xalapa and surrounded it late Thursday, said Veracruz state Public Safety Secretary Sergio Lopez Esquer.

The gunmen resisted fiercely and a standoff ensued, with authorities firing tear gas into the house and exchanging fire with those inside.

Other gunmen shot up homes and cars in surrounding neighborhoods, apparently to try to draw soldiers away from the safe house.
Security forces finally stormed the house early Friday and seized grenades, ammunition and vehicles, army Gen. Rene Aguilar Paez said. There were no arrests."

Nice to know that innocent people were having their homes and cars shot up to distract the Govt. Security Forces.

Also, being a town mayor is a deadly job as well: "Three mayors have been killed in Mexico so far this month, and more than a dozen were gunned down in 2010."

Notice that that 6 hour gunbattle took place in Xalapa, Veracruz. A long ways from the US border. So, violence can and does erupt anywhere in Mexico.
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9650
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Sat Jan 15, 2011 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Enigma2011 wrote:
Prof.Gringo wrote:

There is a need for a constant influx of native-speaker newbies for Mexico but the wages are simply not worth it.


I agree, but I keep hearing that if one gets the qualifications, MA, CELTA, DELTA, things will turn around and one will make more money that what they see advertised.
I have yet to hear from one in Mexico who can make it ON THEIR OWN without the help of a spouse, SS or a Pension from the States. I only know of some who live off of their wives when their unrealistic ideas keep failing, or their husbands REAL job and his properties, or the total lack of experience from newbies who don't have a clue about Mexico.


You should check out the Mexico forum for those people that have done well. There are quite a few helpful folk there that can point out where the better jobs are and where you should go for your CELTA or to locate the better jobs if you decide on higher qualifications. For example..

The ASF is running a local job fair tomorrow in DF, with the international job fair scheduled for Feb in the US and Canada. I see there are about 25 positions open this year.

I'm not sure as to the fairs for other schools in Mexico, but in Mexico City alone you'll have several hundred looking at staffing this month and forward for the 2011-12 period. Here's a list of the top 100 in Mexico City.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/46528015/Chilango-Escuelas-2011

That's in Spanish, sorry. In Mexico, local connections and Spanish abilities rule the roost. Enigma, learning some Spanish in Mexico and networking with others will help a lot as you get used to being here. You're not going to get much help from the snowbird or unemployed crowd you've been meeting I think.
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