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veiledsentiments · Joined: 20 Feb 2003 Posts: 17644 Location: USA

I don't know if I would leave or not... especially as it would be abandoning one's pay check and most of one's possessions. Speaking only for myself, I would probably wait it out.

VS

tatsuo1 · Joined: 11 Jun 2009 Posts: 75

johnslat · Posted: Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:30 pm Post subject:

It's a tough call - according to some reports, the Muslim Brotherhood has started to take part in the protests. And the members of that organization are not too fond of "Westerners."
It reminds me a lot of the "Islamic Revolution" in Iran, back in '79. Many of the protesters thtere weren't "Islamists" - there were a lot of "Communisdts" and "Democrats," too. But look who ended up in charge.

I didn't get out of Shiraz in time and ended up spending a couple of months there since all the airports had been closed down. I never felt really "threatened" during that time, but it was rather uncomfortable going out to get groceries. Occasionally, I'd get some "harsh words" from some locals, but, if they spoke English, we'd always end up talking, and then I'd get invited home for dinner.

I don't think that any Westerners in Iran were injured/killed from January of 1979 up to the hostase taking at the embassy (I think that was in November of '79.) And even then, as I recall, all the hostages were released essentially unharmed.

Regards,
John

beenthere96-2005 · Joined: 01 Aug 2010 Posts: 79 Location: St Louis

veiledsentiments · Joined: 20 Feb 2003 Posts: 17644 Location: USA

The Muslim Brotherhood is very different from the Mullahs of Iran. I wouldn't consider them equivalent. The two situations are so different, the two cultures are so different.

VS

johnslat · Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2011 3:56 pm Post subject:

Dear veiledsentiments,

Well, I hope you're right. But I'd say that "fundamentalists," no matter what their religion, are all pretty much the same, especially in this regard: It's either their way or the highway.

(And, considering the "checkered history" of the "Brotherhood," leopards and spots also come to mind.)

Regards,
John

veiledsentiments · Joined: 20 Feb 2003 Posts: 17644 Location: USA

http://chronicle.com/article/At-American-U-in-Cairo/126174/

johnslat · Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 1:06 pm Post subject:

""I don't know what kind of news they're relaying in the United States," said Raquel Miller, a study-abroad student from Mercy College. She said she had attended a protest on Sunday. "We took pictures with them. It was fine. It felt like a regular street gathering. You wouldn't even know it was a protest, except for the slogans and posters."

OK, I'm sure I'm going to be accused (perhaps rightly) of making "facile comparisons," but the scenario above is exactly the same as I experienced in Shiraz, Iran in 1979. Many of the teachers at what was then called "Pahlavi University" attended just such student protests.

Regards,
John

veiledsentiments · Joined: 20 Feb 2003 Posts: 17644 Location: USA

It would be impossible not to make parallels.

This morning when I catch up on the news, it sounds/looks like Mubarak has organized "supporters" to try to take over Tahrir and punish the demonstrators. It looks like the army is going to be pushed to take sides.

VS

johnslat · Posted: Wed Feb 02, 2011 3:40 pm Post subject:

Dear veiledsentiments,

According to some reports, the army may have already "taken sides":

"A military spokesman appeared on state TV Wednesday and asked the protesters to disperse so life in Egypt could get back to normal. The announcement could mark a major turn in the attitude of the army, which for the past two days has allowed protests to swell, reaching their largest size yet on Tuesday when a quarter-million peacefully packed into Cairo's central Tahrir Square."

However, that might not mean much - the army also "took sides," at least initially, with the Shah. In Shiraz, I was living right across from a big military base. When the revolution really took off, I saw a large crowd of people come from downtown Shiraz (where the smoke from burning tires
was rising) towards the base. When they arrived and tried to break down the gate, the army fired on them at first; a good number were wounded /killed. But, after about twenty minutes, the firing stopped, the gates were thrown open, and the people rushed in and embraced the soldiers.

That same day, the "Immortals," the Shah's "personal bodyguard" (about 10,000 men) surrendered. I still have the issue of the English language Al Kayan with the headline; "IMMORTALS SURRENDER."

Regards,
John

ntropy · Joined: 11 Oct 2003 Posts: 671 Location: ghurba

HOw about Egypt Fan? Are you there now and able to comment? Away elsewhere but cognizant of the situation?

veiledsentiments · Joined: 20 Feb 2003 Posts: 17644 Location: USA

I've been offline all day due a major power cut in my neighborhood, but had heard that the internet was up in Cairo now. I had hoped that someone would have showed up here and posted. It doesn't look good.

VS

redsnapper · Joined: 01 Jul 2010 Posts: 60

Prof.Gringo · Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2011 3:29 pm Post subject:

johnslat · Posted: Fri Feb 11, 2011 5:25 pm Post subject:

What really worries me is that "popular uprisings"/revolutions have this tendency to get hijacked.

The French Revolution got hijacked twice: first by Marat, Robespierre, Danton, etc. and then by Napoleon.
The Russian Revolution also got hijacked twice: first by Lenin (whose Bolsheviks hijacked Kerensky and the Mensheviks) and then by Stalin (who hijacked it from Trotsky.)
The Iranian revolution was hijacked from Mehdi Barzagan, a liberal and a democrat and Bani-Sadr, (ditto) by the fundamentalists.

And once the hijackers, who usually grab the power because they're utterly ruthless (unlike the "nice guy" democrats and liberals,") they never let go willingly.

Regards,
John