Job Discussion Forums

Sashadroogie · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 5:27 am Post subject:

Causation vs correlation. Always an excellent point.

johnslat · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 1:51 pm Post subject:

The fallacy responsible for a good number of other superstitions: Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL_vHDjG5Wk

Regads,
John

johnslat · Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2014 8:37 pm Post subject:

And now for a little comic relief:

http://tallguywrites.livejournal.com/148012.html

Regards,
John

Sashadroogie · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:40 am Post subject:

Dear Johnslat

It would be comical if it wasn't so tragically dangerous. There is no relief from this sort of ignorance. Just the release that comes from death.

With Communist greetings

Sasha

johnslat · Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2014 12:25 pm Post subject:

It's not just ignorance; it's also deliberate misinformation:

http://violentmetaphors.com/2014/03/25/parents-you-are-being-lied-to/

Regards,
John

Sashadroogie · Posted: Tue Apr 01, 2014 3:59 am Post subject:

Dear Johnslat

What can I say? I'm an optimist, and I try to see the best in people. I prefer to see them as acting due to not knowing, rather than willfully wishing ill unto their fellow man. As soon as the latter becomes indisputable, with signed confessions etc. then it is off east they go, for some re-education. Just don't like my better nature being taken advantage of, you know?

With Communist greetings

Sasha

Daveric · Joined: 03 Jan 2014 Posts: 37

HLJHLJ · Joined: 06 Oct 2009 Posts: 1218 Location: Ecuador

The vast majority of outbreaks are in children who have been vaccinated because the vast majority of children in urban areas have been vaccinated.

If you read up a little on logical fallacies you will be less susceptible to this sort of error, and wouldn't find these things so scary.

Vaccines are not 100% effective, but they are still far far more effective than not vaccinating. Even when they haven't taken entirely, they usually confer some benefit, as evidenced by the rarity of deaths from measles in people who are vaccinated. Without vaccines measles outbreaks wouldn't even make the press because they would be so common

Finally, people who have been vaccinated can still be measles carriers, just like people who haven't been vaccinated can. Which is why the herd immunity figure is relatively high for measles (85%).

Sashadroogie · Posted: Fri Apr 04, 2014 9:05 am Post subject:

Sorry, HLJHLJ. That is far too logical. Won't wash with the truthers...

Daveric · Joined: 03 Jan 2014 Posts: 37

HLJHLJ · Joined: 06 Oct 2009 Posts: 1218 Location: Ecuador

johnslat · Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:55 pm Post subject:

Useless - but what the heck:

A few days ago, I wrote an article discussing how antivaccination trope inventors could not understand the most basic elements of mathematics in reading a vaccine label. They misinterpreted some simple math like that the toxic level of a substance is several million times higher than what is injected. I suppose in the minds of vaccine deniers, 1=1 billion. Or 1 trillion. Or 4783.2226. It just depends.

And if they can’t understand the simplest of math principles, assuming that they would understand population level statistics might be a really bad assumption.

Recently, I was pointed to an antivaccination article, on the Political Blindspot website, which is dedicated to finding news articles swept under the rug by mainstream media. My skeptical radar always goes into full energy mode whenever I see the word “mainstream.”

Basically, the article disputes the notion that vaccine exemptions have lead to outbreaks of measles in New York City and Orange County, CA by asking:

If the measles outbreaks in California, and particularly in and around Orange County, as well as New York City are because of non-vaccinators, then why aren’t we seeing outbreaks of everything not being vaccinated for? Why just measles and why all of a sudden, when the number of people opting out of vaccinations has actually steadily dropped in the last few years – after an initial wave of people not doing it?

To answer their questions, 1) because the vaccination rate is still high enough for most vaccine preventable diseases that the herd effect may still protect those who are not vaccinated; 2) Why measles? Because it is a highly infectious and contagious respiratory disease. Without oversimplifying it, the measles virus, because it is passed from one person to another through coughing or sneezing, if one person carries it, the virus seems to search for all of those individuals who are not immune. The disease spreads faster when there are pockets of unvaccinated individuals.

To back up their claim, Political Blindspot put up a graphic, from the CDC, as if that supported the contention that vaccine exemptions don’t lead to vaccine preventable disease outbreaks."

For more, please use the link below:

http://www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalraptorblog.php/hey-vaccine-deniers-its-simple-math-part-deux/

Regards,
John

johnslat · Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2014 12:58 pm Post subject:

And this:

"During January 1–August 24, 2013, a total of 159 cases were reported to CDC from 16 states and New York City (Figure 2). Patients ranged in age from 0 days to 61 years; 18 (11%) were aged <12 months, 40 (25%) were aged 1–4 years, 58 (36%) were aged 5–19 years, and 43 (27%) were aged ≥20 years. Among the 159 cases, 17 (11%) persons required hospitalization, including four patients diagnosed with pneumonia. No deaths were reported.

Among the 159 cases, 157 (99%) were import-associated, and two had an unknown source. Forty-two (26%) importations (23 returning U.S residents and 19 visitors to the United States) from 18 countries were reported, and 21 (50%) of the importations were from the WHO European Region. Genotypes identified to date are D8 (47 cases), B3 (six), H1 (four), D9 (three), and D4 (two).

Most cases were in persons who were unvaccinated (131 [82%]) or had unknown vaccination status (15 [9%]). Thirteen (8%) of the patients had been vaccinated, of whom three had received 2 doses of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. Among 140 U.S. residents who acquired measles, 117 (84%) were unvaccinated, and 11(8%) had unknown vaccination status. Of those who were unvaccinated, 92 (79%) had philosophical objections to vaccination, six (5%) had missed opportunities for vaccination, 15 (13%) occurred among infants aged <12 months who were not eligible for vaccination, and for four (3%) the reason for no vaccination was unknown (Figure 3). Among the 21 U.S resident patients who traveled abroad and were aged ≥6 months, 14 (67%) were unvaccinated, five (24%) had unknown vaccination status, and two had received 1 dose of MMR vaccine.

To date in 2013, eight outbreaks have accounted for 77% of the cases, and outbreaks have ranged from three to 58 cases. The largest outbreak occurred in New York City (4). None of these patients had documentation of vaccination at the time of exposure, including 12 (21%) who were aged <12 months. Of those who were eligible for vaccination, 31 (67%) had objected or had parental objection to vaccination because of religious or philosophical beliefs (4). The second largest outbreak, in North Carolina (23 cases, including a California resident), occurred mainly among persons not vaccinated because of personal belief exemptions (5). In an ongoing outbreak in Texas, 20 confirmed cases have been reported as of August 24 among members of a church community. Nineteen (95%) cases were in patients aged >12 months, and 17 (85%) of the patients were unvaccinated. The index patient was an adult with unknown measles vaccination history who traveled to Indonesia."

For more, please use the link below:

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6236a2.htm

Not sure why I bother, though. Some people are impervious to facts.

Regards,
John

Sashadroogie · Posted: Tue Apr 08, 2014 1:12 pm Post subject:

...and logic. But full marks for sheer persistence.