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Turkey election

 
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gregory999



Joined: 29 Jul 2015
Posts: 372
Location: 999

PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2015 3:56 pm    Post subject: Turkey election Reply with quote

The latest result of Turkey elections puts AK party on lead with 53% of the vote (after 40% of the vote counting). The main opposition CHP was on 20.7%, while the nationalist MHP and pro-Kurdish HDP were both on 11.0%, just above the 10% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Do you think the AK party might win the majority of the vote and forms the government without coalition with any other party?

Let's wait and see?
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Cosmixed



Joined: 11 May 2014
Posts: 11
Location: Istanbul

PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As of now the media is projecting that AKP has won enough votes that they will not need to form a coalition. I guess that some MHP voters went with AKP this election. And it looks like HDP is back in at 10%, although lower than their 13% win last time around. IDK if those lost votes went to CHP or what.
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gregory999



Joined: 29 Jul 2015
Posts: 372
Location: 999

PostPosted: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indeed, as I expected, the AK party will get at least 325 seats in the 550-seat of the parliament, and will form a government on its own.

Well done AK party! Very Happy
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JohnRambo



Joined: 06 Mar 2008
Posts: 183

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The AKP won a majority of seats, though not the majority of votes. 49% is a very good feat considering the economical situation, deteriorating lira, loss of human rights etc... We saw something similar in the US, though the Republicans under George Bush won in 2004 despite his failed foreign policy, a worse human rights record, a worse economy. However, the Democrats had the legacy of Bill Clinton and a better economy to remind people of. Turkey has a more right wing population and the secular elements don't have a good economic track record.

The CHP is the only party that made gains out of the other three, but barely. The question is will they be able to keep the momentum going. Many people feel they inspire little enthusiasm to gain votes. They can only seem to criticize the AKP in the mind's eye of many critics. They need new blood, perhaps i.e. leadership, though they've steadily faired better in each election.

The MHP did horrible because they missed a chance to either have a coalition with the larger AKP or negotiate with the HDP and CHP. Their leader should resign. He handled things horribly. They have to find a way to come to the center and come to some kind of even minor understanding with the Kurds.

The HDP's a new party. Much of its constituency is Kurdish, though some of its votes come from liberal Turks. It passed the threshold twice, which is a major feat. I don't think there was much their leader could have done considering the political cards in front of him. However, the Kurds, who have long felt marginalized and have not seen much development have long been having many children like many people who feel oppressed and live in poverty. One can see that example say with the Shiites of Lebanon when they were marginalized under a formerly Maronite Catholic dominated country. The Kurds will increase in numbers. That means while it may be a little bit of a challenge to break that barrier. It's hard to say what will happen in say 8 years from now. During the next election, they could get 14%. It's conceivable. At any rate, many Turks believe whatever is said about the HDP and claim it is a cover for a certain organization.
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Dedicated



Joined: 18 May 2007
Posts: 972
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:26 pm    Post subject: Tough times for Turkey Reply with quote

The decisive victory of the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sunday's election - just five months after the last one - is a decidedly mixed blessing for Turkey, its neighbours and allies.

On the bright side, the result should bring stability to the country and its economy. The rule of the AKP party which he founded has benefited some poorer Turks in the provision of housing and public services. Further, the party's majority is fortunately not large enough for him to railroad new powers for the presidency through parliament without a referendum.

The bleaker aspects of Mr Erdogan's victory are more obvious: he is an authoritarian ruler whose Islamist politics have proved profoundly divisive. He has been confrontational in respect of the Kurds, one of the big losers in this election, meddlesome towards countries such as Kosovo and downright repressive when it comes to dissent on the part of writers, journalists and environmental groups. What's more, when it comes to the war in Syria, Turkey's neighbour, his policy gives every impression of being directed against the Kurds as well as against Islamic State; Turkey's long-standing opposition to the Assad regime further complicates current attempts to secure some kind of diplomatic settlement.

However, these are early days. Mr Erdogan is now talking the language of national unity. Let's see whether he can prove more conciliatory, at least in respect of the Kurdish question, than he has been to date.
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JohnRambo



Joined: 06 Mar 2008
Posts: 183

PostPosted: Tue Nov 03, 2015 5:40 am    Post subject: Re: Tough times for Turkey Reply with quote

Dedicated wrote:
The decisive victory of the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sunday's election - just five months after the last one - is a decidedly mixed blessing for Turkey, its neighbours and allies.

On the bright side, the result should bring stability to the country and its economy. The rule of the AKP party which he founded has benefited some poorer Turks in the provision of housing and public services. Further, the party's majority is fortunately not large enough for him to railroad new powers for the presidency through parliament without a referendum.

The bleaker aspects of Mr Erdogan's victory are more obvious: he is an authoritarian ruler whose Islamist politics have proved profoundly divisive. He has been confrontational in respect of the Kurds, one of the big losers in this election, meddlesome towards countries such as Kosovo and downright repressive when it comes to dissent on the part of writers, journalists and environmental groups. What's more, when it comes to the war in Syria, Turkey's neighbour, his policy gives every impression of being directed against the Kurds as well as against Islamic State; Turkey's long-standing opposition to the Assad regime further complicates current attempts to secure some kind of diplomatic settlement.

However, these are early days. Mr Erdogan is now talking the language of national unity. Let's see whether he can prove more conciliatory, at least in respect of the Kurdish question, than he has been to date.


I think you're spot in many ways. There are so many variables to consider.

The Kurds did not do well, but they made it through that barrier twice. It's not something that can be ignored. It does send a message - those speaking for Kurdish rights have a visible presence in parliament. That said, many Kurds do vote for the AKP, otherwise the HDP would have done better.
The Kurds don't all simply vote along ethnic lines, though most of them do.

As far as Syria, Turkey's designs will be limited, I think. The US and Russia seem to be keen to end the conflict. If Erdogan's seen to be in the way, that would not be in Turkey's interest. One reason why Erdogan has been essentially not bothered so much by Europe and the US is because it's stable, and there's the conflict in both Iraq and Syria. That's the US and Europe's main concern. It's a massive regional fire that we're talking about.

Erdogan's election does mean stability for now. It's good for the lira. However, it's hard to say what will happen.

It's clear authoritarianism, arbitrarily arresting journalists, shutting down media centers and what not is not that important to Turkish voters, and they're not concerned that much in terms of inquiring as to what exactly occurs in the East and how the Kurds are faring. That's how the Kurds feel, at least.

The people essentially believe certain myths regarding the government's policies and the economic growth between 2003-2007. Many countries were growing at that time, and Turkey was already put on a program after the IMF crisis by Kemal Dervis. That said, many Turks associate economic progress only with them.

And last but not least, the MHP blew its chance to be part of a coalition. The leader was trying to act very principled or to appear that way when Turks are not that concerned about claims regarding corruption and this or that scandal. It does happen. Just as for a long time, Italians ignored Berlusconi's scandals until they got to be too much.
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