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Zloty
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Master Shake



Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2007 9:55 am    Post subject: Zloty Reply with quote

I just flew back into Gdansk and I've got a few US dollars I earned over the Summer that need converting.

Should I wait or convert now? the exchange rate is definitely lower than when I was last here in June. It's about 2.82 currently.

Is the exchange rate expected to go lower due to an expected slump in the US economy?
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Master Shake



Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can anyone offer some advice here? Convert now or wait?
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the new guy



Joined: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 127

PostPosted: Sun Sep 02, 2007 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

US economy in an expected slump?? what rock have u been living under?

just convert it. It hasn't flexed around too much for the last year.

If anything.... the USD is in freefall against all world currencies.

just ask yourself, what do you lose/gain if you do/don't.

its YOUR money.

and if its a few bucks..... whats the risk?
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Master Shake



Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 8:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last Winter I remember the exchange rate being as high as almost 3 zlotys per dollar - those were the days. Now its down to 2.57.

if youre converting $500, This amounts to a difference of 230zl. So the rate has changed a lot in the last year for a difference of more than just "a few bucks."
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misteradventure



Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Posts: 243

PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2007 2:38 pm    Post subject: best deal on zloty Reply with quote

The PLN is one of the most stable currencies in the world. Take it from my tutors at WSH and NBP. The only way the zloty is going to climb up to PLN 3.00:1.00USD is if they install Lepper as PM.

You can convert now and eat the difference. The ironic thing is that YOU know the currency is going into the toilet, while Mister Rich Guy in the States is blissfully unaware that the Fed just robbed him of 25% of his wealth.

You can hold onto them for the next time you go home. They will use funny money in the States for the forseeable future.

You can buy a different currency that *might* appreciate against the dollar (Euro, Ukranian Hrvnia, British Pound, any of the Scandinavian currencies) That is, they aren't tanking as fast as the USD.

You can exchange them for currency in the land you wish to visit next holiday break.

Aren't you glad you are travelling and learning the ways of the world?
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Master Shake



Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:15 pm    Post subject: Re: best deal on zloty Reply with quote

misteradventure wrote:

Aren't you glad you are travelling and learning the ways of the world?


I'm glad I dont have much more than 500 USD to convert.

My plans are to head for Japan this Spring. I should buy Yen.

But this huge school in Japan, Nova, just tanked and the job market over there is kind of crazy. Hope things settle down before March-April. I'v got a CELTA, damn it, which is more than you can say for the average ex-Nova teacher.
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YakTamer



Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 86
Location: Warszawa, Polska

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2007 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm guessing that you wished you'd converted originally rather than asking a bunch of renowned economists, aka english teachers, what to do?

Or you could wait a couple more months for the dollar to be worth 2 zloty so as to make the maths easier.

The Yen is weak due to the preference of Japanese investors to export their money into higher-yielding currencies as quickly as possible; there's no rush to buy Yen if you've already converted into Zloty. Given Bernanke's desire to turn USD into confetti however, I'd probably want to convert that into any_other_currency as soon as possible.

It could be worse - you could've been holding Zimbabwean $$$.
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Master Shake



Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2007 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

YakTamer wrote:
I'm guessing that you wished you'd converted originally rather than asking a bunch of renowned economists, aka english teachers, what to do?


Yea, well, thankfully this $500 isn't the same cash I came here with back in August.

But the 'economists' on this forum seem to know an awful lot more about currency than your's truely.

So what is the US going to do about this? Abandon the dollar? Have a revolution?
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MilesFerdinand



Joined: 19 Aug 2006
Posts: 21

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 1:28 pm    Post subject: Dollars Reply with quote

Im not an economist so dont know about telling you the right time to sell, sell sell..!!

But, when you do go to the exchange place, ask them for a better rate - for 500 dollars they might give you a few extra groszy which might pay for your next meal at least. Ive done this often when the amount Im changing is more than just a few euros/dollars... and theyve always given me a better rate.
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dynow



Joined: 07 Nov 2006
Posts: 985

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2007 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i've exchanged this much before, and it was with my cousin who is a polish native, meaning she did the talking, and if i remember correctly, we got maybe an extra grosze per dollar. you are lucky to even get that these days, but hell, give it a shot. 5 zlotych gets you another zywiec at the pub.
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YakTamer



Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 86
Location: Warszawa, Polska

PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2007 11:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update: USD rate is now 2.46.

The difference with the current market crisis is that people's first instinct is to sell the world's reserve currency rather than to buy it. When that happens, it's telling you that the dollar is rapidly losing its status as a reserve currency. Once that reserve status goes then all bets are off. I think that the shoe will finally fall off when China finds a way of unwinding its currency from the dollar. The fact that the Chinese central bank is now losing money on the money market operations designed to balance its purchases of USD instruments (due to the reversal of the interest rate differential between the two currencies) suggests that the day of reckoning can't be far off.

Apologies for this non-TEFL post but it is at least on topic!
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Master Shake



Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 858
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2007 10:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The dollar losing value is bad for Americans travelling abroad. But it is good for American exports and tourism. So a weakening dollar has its up side, yes?

Does anyone think the dollar will fall to the point where Poles come to America for a cheap vacation, instead of the other way around?
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misteradventure



Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Posts: 243

PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Assuming the US has anything to export beyond Native Speakers, I suppose you have a point, but to say that it is good for US tourism really is something not for the Fed Board to decide, but ICE (isn't that a friendly acronym? Makes me yearn for the days of the Gestapo- no, wait, there's someone at the door!)

When I learned that a tourist visa required a fee in the (several) hundreds of Zloty (non-refundable if they deny your application), I began to question the 'tourism' angle of your argument- even for Poles who are blindly pro-USA more often than not.

I'm waiting for the new administration to impose 'reflexive penalties' like Brazil- they charge what the US charges their citizens who apply for tourist visas.

Is this on-topic? I think so. Watch out for new, higher visa costs for US Passport holders to enter Poland and the EU countries. It could happen.

Here is an article indicating that there was a 90% implosive devaluation of USD possible in the next months:

http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2007/11/19/forecast_us_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/4876

It makes for an interesting discussion about the Polish housing market and the Tusk administration's desire to enter the Euro sooner than required.
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YakTamer



Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 86
Location: Warszawa, Polska

PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2007 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

90% devaluation against what?

Gold is currently $800/oz so a 90% devaluation against gold would have gold priced at $8000/oz, not the $2000 the article states.

The dollar can't devalue against the Yuan or the Gulf currencies since they are pegged directly to the dollar.

The Japanese central bank likewise has very powerful mechanisms in place to stop a runaway appreciation of the Yen (which they've used successfully to keep the Yen from appreciating markedly against USD over the period of the dollar's rapid decline).

That leaves the poor Eurozone to take all the pain (and, by proxy, Switzerland). I'd like to see Germany keeping a trade surplus with China if its export currency rose tenfold in value. The European export market would completely collapse under such a scenario so a 1930s style regime of competitive devaluations would be necessitated (all very nice for gold positions though).

Sterling is anybody's guess but given that the macroeconomic situation there looks even worse than the US it's probably also heading for a long walk off a short plank.
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YakTamer



Joined: 29 Mar 2004
Posts: 86
Location: Warszawa, Polska

PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2007 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Polish Zloty today moved to below 5 zloty to the British pound (4.99)

If I stay here long enough, I'll have a salary higher than what I can get in the UK!
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