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Feeling the $ Pinch?
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Cleopatra



Joined: 28 Jun 2003
Posts: 3657
Location: Tuamago Archipelago

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2003 12:26 pm    Post subject: Feeling the $ Pinch? Reply with quote

This own't be relevant to those of you from American, but I'm wondering if teachers who come from Britain of the Eurozone countries are beginning to feel the negative effects of the dollar's slide? (As far as I know - correct me if I'm wrong - all of the Gulf Cooperation countries have their currencies pegged to the $)

After all, the $ has fallen against the euro and other major currencies by over 10% in the past year. All the indicators are that it will continue to do so. Does this encourage any of you re-consider your stay in the Gulf from a financial point of view?
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ntropy



Joined: 11 Oct 2003
Posts: 671
Location: ghurba

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2003 2:38 pm    Post subject: ouch Reply with quote

It's even worse if you're Canadian working in the ME being paid in US funds.

Given the incredible rise of the CAD vs the USD, my salary decreased by over 20% in 2003 by the time I turned into coin of the realm at home.
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veiledsentiments



Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17633
Location: USA

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2003 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Cleo,

This is a scenario that has come around various times with different effects. We Americans weren't as affected (except in terms of travel costs during leaves), but currency fluctuations have always been around. I can recall many discussions in faculty rooms bemoaning the rise and fall of various currencies against their pay in the Gulf. (and yes, they are all pegged to the dollar at this time, though there is always discussion of changing this --)

Long term people with financial savvy used to do their savings in various currencies - to help smooth out fluctuations over the years. I never got into it much, but at the time many of the offshore banks in the UK area allowed accounts in various currencies. I did a bit of it between Pounds and Dollars - moving the money back and forth between accounts as the values changed. I stopped because this was pre-internet and it was too difficult to stay current and make the transfers.

Just be glad that it hasn't been like what happened in Turkey a few years back when everyone paid in Lira suddenly had their salary go down over 50% - many did have to leave because they suddenly couldn't pay their education loans back home.

VS
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Cleopatra



Joined: 28 Jun 2003
Posts: 3657
Location: Tuamago Archipelago

PostPosted: Tue Dec 23, 2003 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem for us Eurozoners right now is that the $ seems almost certain to sink still further for at least the short-term (read, until after Dubya's "re" election!) and possibly beyond.

In the summer of 2002, the $ and euro were on a par, now the $ is trading at 1.24 euro, and analysists say it could well go as low as 1.35. That's a considerable change. Of course, financial predictions are made to be broken, but it seems like a worrying trend for people like me who wnat to work in the Gulf.

I too, have heard talk of some of the GU countries peggin their currencies to the euro instead of the $. However, to do that, they'd probably have to start pricing oil in euros too. That has been mooted, but I'd say it's a long way off yet.
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scot47



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Posts: 15335

PostPosted: Thu Dec 25, 2003 3:05 am    Post subject: euro and dollar Reply with quote

I was getting 1000 Euro for 3500 Saudi Riyals. Now it costs me 4760 Saudi Riyals
Catastrophic !
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Stephen Jones



Joined: 21 Feb 2003
Posts: 4124

PostPosted: Thu Dec 25, 2003 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They aren't all pegged to the dollar. The Kuwaiti dinar is begged to a basket of currencies which basically reflect the balance of their exports. Pre-euro days the yen and the German Mark were the two most important, followed at some distance by the dollar,

When the euro started it was worth $1.19, so all that has happened is that it has got back to its normal position.

When I started working in Saudi in the in the early nineties the was SR7.9. It quickly dropped to SR6.4 which has been the most common rate over the last fifteen years or so.

The dollar was at an unnaturally high point three or four years ago; it's extremely rare that the pound goes below SR6.2. Also the euro was ridiculously low.

Incidentally one of the reasons given for the rise of the euro has been thet transfer of Saudi capital from the US because Saudis have become worried, rightfully, about arbitrary seizure of their assets.
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Mark100



Joined: 05 Feb 2003
Posts: 441

PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2003 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well you should be all thankful you are not Australian as we have lost out big time of late.
The Australian dollar has increased from just over 50cents to the US dollar a year back to 75cents to the US dollar.
I am no mathematical genius but that makes a 50% decrease in salary.
I am not remitting any money at the moment as i am keeping everything in US dollars until the pendulum swings back again.
It could be a long wait thou!
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Cleopatra



Joined: 28 Jun 2003
Posts: 3657
Location: Tuamago Archipelago

PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2003 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the scary thing is that $ weakness is likely to persist and indeed, increase, over the near future and beyond. I'm anything but a financial whizz, but this definately seems to be more than a mere 'blip'.

It's true that the $ has been overvalued for years, and that in a sense it's only now returning to its "true" value. However, that inflated $ was the one I was used to and had based my calculations on. Worse, if Dubya is "re" elected, then it's likely he will persist with his weak $ policy, whatever he might say.
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veiledsentiments



Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17633
Location: USA

PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2003 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Cleo,

Perhaps I have been around the Middle East and its conspiracy theories too long, but in watching the currency markets through the years, 'valuation' seems to be pretty much arbitrary. It almost looks as if the various currencies take turns - or perhaps that the people who are in the business of making money from currency fluctations decide the time is right. It is completely cyclical and seemingly only marginally related to actual economic fundamentals. I watch the business channel almost daily and listen to them try to justify this up or that down - smoke and mirrors!! Smile You are right that Bushie will do nothing to bring it up - his filthy rich buddies in international businesses are rolling in the dough with cheap exports - he will try to keep them happy and bankrolling his re-election campaign.

Mark100 - if you can afford to hold on, the wheel will likely turn. Just look at what the Japanese yen has done over the last ten years - wild fluctuations - yet their economy has continued to be mired in recession.

When the international currency traders have a nice tidy supply of 'cheap' dollars, they will start pushing it up so that they can cash in their profits. It is just 'when' that is hard to predict.

VS
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manonatrain



Joined: 06 May 2003
Posts: 88

PostPosted: Sat Dec 27, 2003 5:14 pm    Post subject: for MARK100 Reply with quote

mark100

Your correct...we should all be grateful those of us who are
not Australian...crap accents, red necks and thick as kangaroo skin.. Rolling Eyes

Have yet to meet an Australian whom i like in person.
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scot47



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Posts: 15335

PostPosted: Sun Dec 28, 2003 5:14 am    Post subject: train passengers Reply with quote

Manonatrain's level of intellectual sophistication can be measured by the fact that he cannot distinguish between "your" and "you're".

Is he an English teacher or a bartender who just stumbled into the classroom ?
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Mark100



Joined: 05 Feb 2003
Posts: 441

PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2003 4:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

manonatrain
The point of your post was........ ?
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Cleopatra



Joined: 28 Jun 2003
Posts: 3657
Location: Tuamago Archipelago

PostPosted: Mon Dec 29, 2003 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

VS,

As you know (!) I usually respect your judgement and common sense!

I hope you are right this time.

BTW, let's all treat manonatrain with the contempt he deserves and utterly ignore his trolls.
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scot47



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Posts: 15335

PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2003 2:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This whole thing is quite clearly a vile conspiracy launched by the forces of Imperialism and Reaction.

I intend to tell my employer that I wish in future to be paid in gold bullion, viz in "specie".
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veiledsentiments



Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17633
Location: USA

PostPosted: Wed Dec 31, 2003 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scot

Good idea - the problem is lugging around those heavy bars!!

VS
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