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[MaiPenRai]

Latest reports from last nights fighting claim that 15 are dead and over 600 injured. With that many injured, the death toll could still rise.

After hearing initial comments from both the red shirt leaders and the PM, it does not sound as if they are willing to back down and fighting could easily erupt again within the next day or 2.

The are different factions within the protesters. Some are hoping to keep things peaceful while others came to Bangkok looking for a fight and are ready to keep the fight going. THis is quite obvious as there are reports and pictures of grenades, rifles, molotov cocktails, bamboo spears, etc. being used. One leader publicly called for the protesters to get revenge for the deaths of their "brothers" and have called for the PM to leave the country.

There are also different factions within the government, army and police. Some are avid supporters of the current government, while others quietly or openly support the protests. THere has been a lot of talk about the passivity of the army in thier handling of the protests this last week and the PM even publicly chastised the army for this. Some, including me, think that there is a chance that the army may turn and basically create another coup, IF things continue to go badly.

THis has been brewing for decades now, but really heating up since 2006 coup. I can see the argument from both sides. The problem is that both sides are proven liars, deceivers, manipulators, greedy, fear mongerers, etc,etc.

For people coming to Thailand in the next week or so, please be informed of the situation. There have been bloody battles often in Thailand for the past 70 years.

I think it will take a while for many to get over what has happened thus far and unless there are major changes implemented, we can expect more violence and death soon or in the future (could be months or years). IN a growing and weak democracy with the majority of the population being uneducated or undereducated and poor, there will always be problems. Throw in an extremely strong military precence and involvement in politics and its always going to be messy IMO.

For those living here with some experience, what are your thoughts?
Stay safe


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[MaiPenRai]

Death toll reported at 18 as of 9:30 am April 11, 2010.

10:20 am April 11, 2010: 19 dead and 750+ injured

[Zanada]

Thanks MaipenRai. Interesting to hear from within.
Any other first hand accounts?
There's a British Teacher (Paul) that was witness to the gruesome events. (story in BBC)
Not on this board Paul?

On the same night of the shootings the president declared that Troops would only have shot in self defense. If he thought he had pressure now he's got himself International attention.
Echoes of Tienanmen.

[pest2]

Without saying too much, it seems like Thailand is following the model of political and economic development of most of its East Asian neighbors... except in Thailand its happening alot later and there are some additional barriers that hinder progress. Usually, as MPR said, democratizing countries with weak economies have alot of problems with factions, coups, and power struggles... Vietnam, China, Cambodia, Korea, Indonesia, and Burma are some East Asian counterparts that seem to be following this path. Korea is alot further along; in the 1960s and 70s, it was going through this phase of unrest... After a period of authoritarian government and restriction of rights and liberties as well as massive economic restructuring, the economy got stronger. The strengthened economy provided people there with a better quality of life which in turn restored confidence in the government... that allowed the country to re-democratize and give people back the liberty they once had.

I think Thailand is in the early stages of this... it has yet to see the authoritarian-style government the other examples have already had... the kind of government that, corruption and justice notwithstanding, will be able to pull the people together toward one common goal, regardless of the given consent of those people to do this.

So if I had to guess, I'd say there will be some hardships for people here in the not so distant future... but then maybe things will get better.

[MaiPenRai]

Zanada,

you tube has some great footage already.

also try "breaking news bangkok post" or "breaking news nation" for English newspapers here.

thaivisa.com also has a good Thai news forum which will have good links.

Sorry dont have the time to provide all the links now.

Best of luck

[MaiPenRai]

April 11, 2010 at 7:00 pm

Death toll at 21

Injured at 800+

Fairly peaceful day so far with both sides regrouping, restnig and stating their claims to the media. Everyone is finger pointing and blaming the other for starting the fighting.

Protesters are still in the same spots as before the fighting. Army still looks ineffective, weak and lacking any heart.

PM's coalition is getting antsy and wants someone done one way or the other. PM not likely to step down unless forced (asked) by the military.

I expect small factions of protesters to cause trouble again tonight. Let's see how the army respond. My guess is little hit and runs with molotov cocktails and such.

IMO, they should strike now while they have the gov on their heels. Not saying I agree with them in how they went about things, but it's started now and it needs to be finished or we will see the same thing from the other side again in 6 months to a year. It would make things REALLY interesting to see ol' squarehead (Taksin) back in the Land o' coups. It's just another corrupt politician and if he can keep his ego in check this time, he may be able to keep this place peaceful and prosperous.

Rally is planned for Monday with no further details. Should be skirmishes if the government stand by their word to not allow the protesters to disrupt Bangkok or cause violence.

Small victory for the protesters as they got their TV satelite (sp) feed turned on again. At least the sound, but no picture last I heard.

Not much news today as reporters are being accused of bias by the protesters and they are not allowing them in at this time. Makes me think they are planning something to go down soon. There are no more nicities (sp) like before when the protesters told the gov everywhere they would be going and when.

Best of luck to all and stay safe

[Zanada]

So some of Taskin's policies favor the poor and that's why they like him.
But from what I've read, with him it isn't weather he is or not corrupted. Its weather he's among the group of worst Corrupted Governments there is; or if he's at the top of that list.
I don't think this point is disputed and it is popular knowledge, so why do the Reds see past this?
Corruption is something that if so commonplace it becomes accepted?

Thanks for the links

[roguegrafix]

Attempts by the media and some "seasoned old timers" (who write to the Bangkok Post) to portray the Red Shirts as simple, dumb farmers are over-simplifying the complex situation. The Red Shirts are not stupid peasants -- they can see how corrupt Thaksin was in the past. And yes, corruption is endemic and expected in Thailand BUT he was the only one that helped them. And I'm not just talking about the million baht per tambon scheme or the 30 baht medical coverage. His administration actually streamlined a lot of procedures at the district, local and village levels which made the life of these so-called dumb farmers a lot easier. Much of this has been reversed since he lost power and much of the local administration has reverted to its old inefficient ways.

I'm not a fan of Thaksin and never have been since he claimed he could solve Bangkok's traffic problems in 6 months way back in the mid-1990s, but he has become the champion of the poor. Whether he deserves this or not is another question. However, his support his absolutely huge outside of Bangkok. He will be coming back sometime, maybe not soon but he will be back. Guaranteed unless he is assassinated. And even if he is, leaders will arise from within the Red Shirt movement (Nattawut is already seen by many as a future PM).

I see the current situation as more of a power struggle between the haves and the have-nots. I think there is a serious attempt by certain powerful institutions (which I cannot name in public) to hang onto power at whatever the cost. They see Thaksin as the Antichrist and will do anything they can to stop him. If you read a certain book (which is banned in Thailand) you will get an idea of what I mean.

Thai attitudes to many social institutions are changing quickly. Sometimes I am shocked by what they say (sorry but I cannot give you examples in public). In the next few years, living in Thailand will be akin to Terry Pratchett's "Living in interesting times."

Anyway, that's my 2 bahts' worth.

[roguegrafix]

Here are a couple of articles which show that it's not a simple red-yellow equation. It is highly organized: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/home/2010/04/13/politics/Anti-riot-squad-cut-up-by-soldiers-in-black-30127131.html and http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/36020/red-shirts-take-tiger-by-the-tail

[Zanada]

Real interesting read Rogue. (1st post)

[Sleepwalker]

Hi

I was thinking of teaching in Thailand.

How far is the trouble affecting day to day life?

Should I defer a move?

[roguegrafix]

No. Away from the protest sites and everything is normal -- if Thailand can be described as normal. A coup could happen next week, but even then, away from the action, it should be no problem.

[MaiPenRai]

THings are heating up again in Bangkok.

Soldiers have surrounded main roads near the protesters main site.

Bangkok locals have gathered to taunt and thriow bottles, rocks, etc at the red-shirt protesters inciting scraps.

Puea Thai politicians are trying to get the monarchy involved.

The army chief has been given carte blanche to suppress th protests.

Yellow shirts (rememer the airport shut down in 2008) have given the govt 7 days (now 4 days i think) to do something or they will take matters into their own hands. Reds vs yellows, a civilian civil war.

Google "the nation thailand" or "breaking news bangkok post" to get updates on the situation.

Anywhere outside of the 1 km square protest site, you wouldn't know that anything was going on in Bangkok. It life as usual for most of us here.

Basically the whole thing (especially the police and army) has just become a farce for any expats here.

More than 10 times the fatalities occured due to drunk driving and speeding during the SONGKRAN "celebration", yet they dont call it "BLACK SONGKRAN". Get your priorities in line.

350+ killed and 4000 or so injured during Songkran "festivities" What a FARCE!!

[Zanada]

What's the expected fallout from from this recent turn of events?
It seams like things could easily escalate quickly from here.

[Asher]

If you have access to Facebook, Michael Yon is doing live updates from his hotel in Bangkok.