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Impending property doom?
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sharter



Joined: 25 Jun 2008
Posts: 878
Location: All over the place

PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2011 4:53 am    Post subject: Impending property doom? Reply with quote

According to a long-term resident of Polska who also happens to be a millionaire businessman, the property market is about to tank. Any evidence of this in 'your' city?
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scottie1113



Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 351
Location: Gdansk

PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2011 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a similar thread on Poishforums which has been going on for several years. Some prices have gone down a little in Gdansk, most of which have been in newer flats, but nobody here is prediciting a crash.
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PierogiMonster



Joined: 17 Jun 2010
Posts: 136

PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm no millionaire businessman, but I have bought and sold a flat in Krakow before (2008/2011; bought at the peak and sold at a 5% loss).

With prices already having levelled/dropped slightly over the last few years, the Polish economy holding up rather well and being safely out of the Euro, I don't see why prices should fall at all, let alone tank.
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simon_porter00



Joined: 09 Nov 2005
Posts: 454
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 4:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In my humble and totally uneducated opinion the idea that the housing is meant to tank is a load of guff.

It was meant to tank in the first crisis when all the Irish/Spanish/Portuguese property investors were meant to have flooded the market with all the flats and properties they owned to recover monies. It didn't happen then and it hasn't happened in the few years since.

In Warsaw, flat prices seem to be holding steady at a few percent lower then the boom (which is of course when I bought my flat grrrrr). In fact, land prices on the outskirts of Warsaw seem to have picked up a bit.
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maniak



Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 194

PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought it was realized long ago that property prices in Poland are not crashing but undergoing a massive form of correction after boom prices, which is entirely normal. Most hit were severely overvalued properties found in crumbling communist blocs, whose only retaining value was being located close to the city center and "prestigious" (not luxurious) flats/houses found in certain districts/neighborhoods/streets. Going with this were owners severely over-inflated opinions on their own properties, which is still seen today, i.e., those flats/houses that haven't been sold for over 2-3 years.

Other properties that are maintaining their value or raising in value are: houses/land located outside of a city center but very well connected, farm land, vacation houses/land (especially those in "historically prestigious" locations).
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scottie1113



Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 351
Location: Gdansk

PostPosted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="maniak"] Most hit were severely overvalued properties found in crumbling communist blocs, whose only retaining value was being located close to the city center

And these owners have chosen to sit on their flats-sometimes empty-rather than accept a fair market offer. Sometimes they wait for years until they come to their senses, but more often than not they continue with their stubbornness.

Ah, Poland!
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simon_porter00



Joined: 09 Nov 2005
Posts: 454
Location: Warsaw, Poland

PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 5:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't see how holding onto your flat because the market is low is "ah, Poland".

Being on a crammed tram, arriving at a crammed tram stop where 50 people want to get off and on at exactly the same time is "ah, Poland" but having possession of a flat (presumably paying little as they bought it out 15 years ago for 20% of the value or something) and waiting for prices to get better is something I'd consider to be completely normal.

Everyone knows that they're not making flats in certain areas any more and some time in the future, prices will increase.

My flat has lost 5-7% of it's value so I'm not going to sell it as in 5 years time it'll sit between two underground stops on the new line (500 mtrs to both) and hopefully the price will recover. Even if that doesn't work, the rental income will cover the mortgage if not the czynsz.

I'm assuming scottie1113 you tried to buy such a flat and had no luck.
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scottie1113



Joined: 25 Oct 2004
Posts: 351
Location: Gdansk

PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

simon_porter00 wrote:


I'm assuming scottie1113 you tried to buy such a flat and had no luck.


Not true.

Sitting on an empty flat for years with potential buyers offering less than what they're asking simply doesn't make sense to me. Losing the opportunity cost of cash in hand vs getting e few more zl in a few more years also doesn't make sense to me. That's what I meant.
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maniak



Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 194

PostPosted: Sat Oct 22, 2011 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think scottie is in a way correct. I wont consider fixed expenses since theyd probably be quite low, but when you factor in the cost of "lost opportunity" and the risk potential of the flat truly increasing in value enough to cover inflation... but in most cases the place is so overvalued that the seller wont ever see that kind of money. My favorite are the communist semiattached homes located in a nice part of the city that need a full blown renovation that are for sale for over 1.5 million or more.

This is even more pronounced with rental properties, Ive seen some flats and houses for rent which have been empty for months. The math is easy, it'll take someone years if not decades to recoup the money lost not due to not immediately renting it out for a lower price.

Not very financially savvy.
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delphian-domine



Joined: 11 Mar 2011
Posts: 533

PostPosted: Sun Oct 23, 2011 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I bought a place not so long ago, and the vast majority of sellers were just utter jokers. It's especially pronounced with those who bought their commie-era flat for peanuts - they seem to think "I think it's worth that and that's that" - and I think it's actually one reason why there's still such a shortage of flats.

I'm also seeing quite a lot of young people who are trying to sell Babcia's flat - instead of taking a lower offer and getting rid of it now, they'll hang on (and pay the czynsz) for months/years instead.

Unsurprisingly, my place was bought from someone who bought it themselve a few years ago.
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sharter



Joined: 25 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:59 am    Post subject: erm.... Reply with quote

It's definitely a weird one and there are lots of regional differences. Right now in Portsmouth UK you can buy a two-bedroom house with a lounge and diner...and garden for that matter.... for 500,000Zl....you'd struggle to do that in Poznan.

Eco 101-the cobweb effect-I guess demand is still relatively buoyant....god knows why or how....most of my friends there are flat broke.
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sharter



Joined: 25 Jun 2008
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Location: All over the place

PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 7:22 am    Post subject: Polish bond yields... Reply with quote

I've noticed Polish bond yields have been rising...currently at 5.8-9 %; are they in the shite? Also noticed the Zloty has weakened against Sterling; start of something bigger? Yeah or nay? 2012 waddya reckon?
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delphian-domine



Joined: 11 Mar 2011
Posts: 533

PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:37 pm    Post subject: Re: erm.... Reply with quote

sharter wrote:
It's definitely a weird one and there are lots of regional differences. Right now in Portsmouth UK you can buy a two-bedroom house with a lounge and diner...and garden for that matter.... for 500,000Zl....you'd struggle to do that in Poznan.


It's a sign of how many good, well paying jobs there are in Poznan. I know someone who is a senior web developer, and his salary is 3500 Euro a month - paid in Euro, not in Zloty. Sure, he's in demand, he has significant real world experience and so on - but still, it's by no means uncommon. I know for a fact that Allegro has been offering very good salaries to attract the best to come from Warsaw.

Poznan just simply isn't a poor city anymore with anyone with a "qualified" job. Even a friend of mine who manages a language school takes home nearly 4k netto these days.

Quote:
Eco 101-the cobweb effect-I guess demand is still relatively buoyant....god knows why or how....most of my friends there are flat broke.


Again, you're not taking into account that many people earn quite a bit on the side. Take your average garage owner for instance - the ones that do the car technical checks. They can take 120zl (or whatever it is at the minute) and get someone to do it properly, or they can take a quick look, stamp the papers and spend about 10 minutes on the job. What do you think most independent owners are actually doing?

Then there's all the scams - I'm still hearing isolated stories of school owners getting people to sign paperwork saying that they earnt 60zl an hour, yet they get 30zl in the hand and the owner is pocketing the difference. The list goes on...

And to be fair, there's a nasty habit for Poles to absolutely load themselves up with credit - you'll often see them buying huge houses that they can barely afford.

Quote:
I've noticed Polish bond yields have been rising...currently at 5.8-9 %; are they in the shite? Also noticed the Zloty has weakened against Sterling; start of something bigger? Yeah or nay? 2012 waddya reckon?


Weakening against Sterling means nothing, it's the Zloty/Euro rate that matters. That's weakening, but again, most commentators are agreed that it's not based on anything fundamental and it's no reason to worry.

The real question will be what will happen if they introduce the new law demanding that mortgages are lent on the basis of being paid over 25 years (though repayment terms can be longer) - it will hurt a lot of the first time buyers.

So far, the only concrete development is that new-build cardboard flats simply aren't shifting in most locations outside of the centre.
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sharter



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 20, 2011 4:42 am    Post subject: yeah Reply with quote

I hate those flats...really cheap and nasty;actually Poznan is getting slightly cheaper I think.....but the rynek needs a facelift.......except for Borwaria day time and the Lizard late night I think it looks really drab and naff at the mo. It would be nice if someone could restore Harry's to it's mid 90's glory days!! Miss that place. Don't know if you know Newsham (the face) and Lythgow (Cocko Grande).....but they were 2 of the few that are still left from then........
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delphian-domine



Joined: 11 Mar 2011
Posts: 533

PostPosted: Thu Nov 24, 2011 12:59 am    Post subject: Re: yeah Reply with quote

sharter wrote:
I hate those flats...really cheap and nasty;actually Poznan is getting slightly cheaper I think.....but the rynek needs a facelift.......except for Borwaria day time and the Lizard late night I think it looks really drab and naff at the mo. It would be nice if someone could restore Harry's to it's mid 90's glory days!! Miss that place. Don't know if you know Newsham (the face) and Lythgow (Cocko Grande).....but they were 2 of the few that are still left from then........


There's a slight fall in the price of "old" property, but I reckon those who overreached themselves to buy a "new" place are going to get absolutely burnt. They're the ones who won't be earning on the side, and it wouldn't shock me if some of those guarded osiedle's become ghost towns in the next couple of years. I know City Park is struggling really badly at the minute, too. Who the hell thought it was a good idea to build a "residence" in the dump that is Lazarz is beyond me.

What's more interesting is that the price of beer seems to have gone down drastically this winter - I notice there's a place selling beer for 4zl (or was it 5? either way) on the Rynek now, which is absolute madness. 0,5 too, allegedly...

I think the real problem with the Rynek is that it's geared up for summer, and it loses its way in winter. That place that used to be Dom Wikingow is doing well, but as you say, not much else is happening on it. There's that awful 22 club/van diesel place, but - it's full of kids. In fact, that place is everything that's wrong with Poznan. But I guess it's more aimed towards foreigners who want something safe and predictable than those of us who know the city, unlike Wroclaw.

To tell a story about this place - I've noticed The Vikings is doing pretty well at the minute, and it's all because Hania appears to be one of the few people in Poznan...no, Poland - who actually looks after the people who come there.

And yeah, I know Newsham, though the other name doesn't ring a bell (though I probably know the face, I don't know much of that crowd very well). Good guy, though.

I definitely wouldn't recommend any newbie coming here though - I now know several people struggling to put together a decent weekly schedule. I wouldn't even say demand is falling, it's just that there's more than enough decent teachers here. And living on 2000zl (what a newbie can realistically expect here) just wouldn't be fun, unless you were young enough to live with students.
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