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The other 2012 Election.
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disraeli123



Joined: 12 May 2012
Posts: 143
Location: San Luis Potosi, Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:04 am    Post subject: Tefl Educator............................................... Reply with quote

I brought some funds with me from the U.S. but I've been here in San Luis for 4 months now and I've been paid every 2 weeks like clock work and I've always been able to pay all my bills. I have also had some money left over for extras and some savings so maybe Mexico City is not where you need to be in order to make a living in Mexico. Again thanks for your concern and support.
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EFLeducator



Joined: 16 Dec 2011
Posts: 595
Location: NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:23 am    Post subject: Re: Tefl Educator........................................... Reply with quote

disraeli123 wrote:
I brought some funds with me from the U.S. but I've been here in San Luis for 4 months now and I've been paid every 2 weeks like clock work and I've always been able to pay all my bills. I have also had some money left over for extras and some savings so maybe Mexico City is not where you need to be in order to make a living in Mexico. Again thanks for your concern and support.


Great news TEFLer!! Give it six to eight more months and let me know if that streak has been broken. Hopefully not. Perhaps it's a Mexico City thing.

de nada!
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disraeli123



Joined: 12 May 2012
Posts: 143
Location: San Luis Potosi, Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:15 pm    Post subject: EFL Educator............................................... Reply with quote

I'll keep in touch hopefully it is a Mexico City thing. San Luis seems to be a nice city where you can live the way you choose to live and people seem to want to help newcomers as well Smile
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BadBeagleBad



Joined: 23 Aug 2010
Posts: 1186
Location: 24.18105,-103.25185

PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:32 am    Post subject: Re: EFL Educator............................................ Reply with quote

disraeli123 wrote:
I'll keep in touch hopefully it is a Mexico City thing. San Luis seems to be a nice city where you can live the way you choose to live and people seem to want to help newcomers as well Smile


Not really a Mexico City thing either. In 20 years I have never been paid more than a couple of days late, and have NEVER not been paid. And I have done it all, private elementary school, chain schools, business institutes even a government institution. Never paid late. And occasionally even paid a day early.
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geaaronson



Joined: 19 Apr 2005
Posts: 948
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 11:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Disraeli

I welcome the discourse with you. First I agree with you that Reagan was considerably to the right of Obama. I remember that election well as it was my third to vote. So I have been around the block and used to read the NYTimes before I was a teenager, (yes, believe it or not) so my political memories go back to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

As for the Clinton vs. Obama points on the political spectrum, I do believe that there were differences between the two in emphasis. Obama had a better idea of where he wanted to lead the US vis a vis the rest of the world, whereas Clinton�s focus was in economic expansion. Obama�s economics are a bit shakier than Clintonian�s.

As for Reagan, he was interestingly somewhat progressive on some issues, such as he was personally in favor of some marijuana legalization. However at the time that was not a salient issue. Nevertheless he followed Tip O�Neil�s strong suggestion and come down hard on other drugs. When it comes to politics, there is no such thing as a straight up and down conservative or liberal and people are so many shades in between. I�ve met segragionists who were anti-Vietnam War, so how does the classic ideological line apply throughout? We have to be careful about the liberal-conservative "dialectic". There are conservatives who applauded Miranda and liberals who supported the Iraqi incursion (Liebman). So be careful about your overgeneralization. I tried to address this issue several years ago with Thelmadatter, whose views I find to be anethema, as she does mine, and I believe the two of us came to that understanding there is no such thing as a pure liberal or conservative stance among almost anyone.

As for Pelosi and Hatch being inside or outside, that is your position because you are considerably to the right. Your analysis is incorrect. She did not lose her Speakership because she was outside the political mainstream range but because Obama had not cured the economic situation and the voters took revenge and gave the nod to more Republican contenders for congressional positions.
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disraeli123



Joined: 12 May 2012
Posts: 143
Location: San Luis Potosi, Mexico

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 6:56 am    Post subject: Geaaronson.................................................. Reply with quote

Pelosi, Reid and Obama, couldn't fix the economic situation using left wing voodoo economics and Obamacare instead of consontrating on creating jobs. Pelosi led the charge to create Obamacare she also led the way to pass Obama's stimulus package this together is how Pelosi fell otside of the mainstream or boundries of American politics that is why she lost her Speakership because she was behind the stimulus and Obamacare. Obama is a dead duck he will lose mainly because he has put himself outside of the founders boundaries.
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kona



Joined: 17 Sep 2011
Posts: 188
Location: USA

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 9:58 pm    Post subject: Re: Geaaronson.............................................. Reply with quote

disraeli123 wrote:
Pelosi, Reid and Obama, couldn't fix the economic situation using left wing voodoo economics and Obamacare instead of consontrating on creating jobs. Pelosi led the charge to create Obamacare she also led the way to pass Obama's stimulus package this together is how Pelosi fell otside of the mainstream or boundries of American politics that is why she lost her Speakership because she was behind the stimulus and Obamacare. Obama is a dead duck he will lose mainly because he has put himself outside of the founders boundaries.


Here's my two cents: I've always felt like staunch republicans feel like they have a monopoly on fiscal issues, but it seems ironic to me that they hold those views and still supported GWB, who, during his presidency, expanded the national debt to astronomical levels and indirectly created a deregulated economic environment where revalued security assets could be sold as stable when in fact they were very risky, thus leading to the economic crash.

Romney economics scares me more than Obama economics, because with Romney economics the problem is regulation and taxes, and that's a very simplistic and overgeneralized platitude that doesn't hold water when taken into context of entirety of the US economy and its role in the world economy, or the origins and remedies to the economic down turn.

I think Obama is more likely to hold investors, bankers, and hedge fund managers feet to the fire than Romney will. The ability to take sub prime mortgage backed securities (or any high-risk asset) and repackage them into collateralized debt obligations to be sold as AAA stable security investments is dangerous in that it creates a climate of uncertainty in the world markets; that crisis of confidence is what makes credit so scarce right now. Right now, real reform of those markets hasn't take place, and I doubt Romney will do it.

Other issues that people have raised against Obama: healthcare bill. I don't see this as big of an issue either since Romney passed a practically identical bill in his home state. The CBO (which is considered non-partisan by both parties, except when their statistics don't line up with their ideological view points) has stated that it will reduce the deficit, and increase the deficit if its repealed. The Mckinsey report that countered their claims last year, done my mckinsey consulting, didn't even show the methodologies of their report until very recently, and it was found to be flawed by numerous independent oranizations.

Personally, I'd like to think I'm a social liberal, fiscally conscious green voter. I'm going for Obama again; he may win or he may lose. Frankly, I was astonished when Bush won in 2004, so crazier things have happened. Also, I'm a young un' (26), but I enjoy economics and geopolitics immensely so discussing these issues is always good fun for me. One thing I know I'm not is a socialist, marxist, or whatever other label conservative pundits like to label people that disagree with them.
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disraeli123



Joined: 12 May 2012
Posts: 143
Location: San Luis Potosi, Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:17 pm    Post subject: Kona thank you.............................................. Reply with quote

Kona, The simple facts are that yes GWB added 5+trillion to the national debt and for that conservatives didn't come out for John McCain in 2008, also he GWB did it over an 8 year period so far Obama has added 6+ trillion in just over 3.5 years so who is worse there both bad, but Obama certainly is worse than GWB. Secondly the Congresstional Budget Office is the authority on the cost of programs and they just came out with a new estimate for what Obamacare will cost over the next decade how about 2.3 trillion not 900 billion Obama says it will cost simple math even, if you like Obamacare we can't afford it with a 16+ trillion dollar national debt and a 1.3 trillion dollar deficit looming next year. As far as the mortgage crisis which you don't seem to know that it was a democrat law the Community Reinvestment Act passed in 1978 under Jimmy Carter which at first just encouraged banks to loosen the traditional 20% down on most mortgages, but in 1997 Bill Clinton enforced the law forcing banks to give mortgages to people with almost no money down and no proof of income. The bankers at first tried to fight it, but they then sold the mortgages to Wall Street and Fannie and Freddie and they created the mortgage derivitives and the mess mushroomed till it collapsed in the fal of 2008 by the way GWB and the republicans tried to pass a reform regulation bill in 2005 it was blocked by a filibuster lead by Harry Reid and company, so the republicans did try late, but did try to stop this. The Community Reinvestment Act has been repealed since then, but once again it was the government that started the problem not private business. Did the people on Wall Street take advantage of it YES, but they couldn't have taken advantage of it, if the law didn't exist.
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disraeli123



Joined: 12 May 2012
Posts: 143
Location: San Luis Potosi, Mexico

PostPosted: Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:26 pm    Post subject: Kona........................................................ Reply with quote

Kona, If you say you don't consider yourself a socialist , but you vote for Obama after his stimulus package Obamacare and his wanting to raise taxes WHAT are you a fiscal conservative I think not. The founders created the U.S. political system and believe me to them Obama would be a person they would start another revolution in order too remove him from office, instead the people stopped Obama by giving the house to the republicans changing 63 seats and yes the republicans have obstructed Obama the last 2 years, because they were elected to do just that this year the Obama mistake will be fixed. If you want to know why I will vote against Obama just check out the federalist papers the the constitution which he has tried to rip up. Mad
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9650
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
and for that conservatives didn't come out for John McCain in 2008


Actually, McCain drew more conservative voters than any other GOP candidate in American history...even more than Bush in 2004 who pulled in a lot of the independent vote. McCain lost because Obama pulled in both the most left-leaning voters in history and the most independents (as well as over 95% of the African-American vote of course, another historical record).
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disraeli123



Joined: 12 May 2012
Posts: 143
Location: San Luis Potosi, Mexico

PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:40 am    Post subject: GUY......................................................... Reply with quote

McCain won the largest percentage of conservatives, but not the largest number of conservatives. You must also understand that McCain was one of the worst campaingners in U.S. history. You and others haven't touched my economic reasons for Obama's upcoming defeat Exclamation
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Guy Courchesne



Joined: 10 Mar 2003
Posts: 9650
Location: Mexico City

PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 2:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
McCain won the largest percentage of conservatives, but not the largest number of conservatives.


Check your numbers...

http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/pop_vote.html#.UB8mqmyoGSo

or Wiki, as I did, for the last 5 elections. McCain drew a hair under 60 million votes. Only Bush in 2004 did better with almost 62 million votes. Since independents swung Obama in 2008, McCain attracted more conservative voters in whole numbers than anyone else in history. They didn't stay home as you said, they just got beat by bleeding too many independents to Obama and by record numbers of liberals and African-Americans voting - 69 million. Obama's challenge is to retain those voting blocs. Romney's is to swing them to his side or make them stay home. He doesn't need to worry about the conservative vote so much. The oft-repeated line is that independent voters decide elections and that means you play the middle.
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kona



Joined: 17 Sep 2011
Posts: 188
Location: USA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 4:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll try and take these points one by one:

-Drawing a straight line from the Community Reinvestment Act to financial collapse is a stretch. The recession was not caused by taking away down-payments on houses or making credit available for low-income communities, although it was a part of it in the sense that it did make mortgage backed securities more risky. Having sub-prime mortgages is, in of itself, not a bad thing actually. There are actually quite a few high-risk assets other than sub-prime mortgages that people can invest in, and the fact they are there is a good thing in a sense, because high risk assets also tend to have high yields, and it keeps the economy dynamic. The problem is really the lack of transparency in the valuation of investment assets, and that was really a critical component of the financial meltdown.

The second critical component was that banks who were dealing with these high-risk "AAA" investment securities were also trading in credit default swaps; essentially "insurance" (I use quotes because legally they can't be called "insurance", but they are basically an agreement that says "I'll cover your losses if this thing goes bust"; the reason why they didn't want to call it insurance is because by federal law that would require them to have enough liquidity on tap to pay off all CDS's they hold) against the default of those assets. AIG was heavily leveraged against these, and that's really the reason they went under after there was a run on the banks.

Two rules one should remember in investing: 1. There ain't no free lunch, and 2. Don't keep all your eggs in one basket. The banks missed these two fundamentals by a mile, but luckily, when you got Henry Paulson at the helm of the ship, you can get away with anything (and basically get bailed out of a mess that you created). But in any case, that's neither here nor there, because the bailout probably was ultimately necessary in the grand scheme of things. Unfortunately, America has a short memory and now there is little political will to reign in the "renegade" investing (where you can leverage "your" assets 32 to one; I use quotations on that because they are actually people's 401ks) of the banks. No I forgot government is the problem here. Not what is tantamount to someone selling you a coca-cola with arsenic in it.

As far as the debt goes, GWB had the debt above $10 trillion before Obama took office. Most economists agree that his tax cuts were a serious contributor to that (we basically instantaneously threw out the surplus when he did that). In much the same way that conservatives would say "more taxes does not equal a balanced budget" (which is true to a certain extent), "less taxes doesn't necessary mean a balanced budget either".

Here's an article that may illuminate the source of the public debt. I know, I know, it's from the fanatically liberal New York Times, but I thought I'd show it to you just in case of the slight chance you might be interested. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/opinion/sunday/24sun4.html?_r=1

The founding fathers I think would be proud that we are having a such a spirited and civil debate. Hopefully, the moderators will be tolerant of this too (bit off course from TESOL, but global economics does effect are career prospects).
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kona



Joined: 17 Sep 2011
Posts: 188
Location: USA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 4:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll try and take these points one by one:

-Drawing a straight line from the Community Reinvestment Act to financial collapse is a stretch. The recession was not caused by taking away down-payments on houses or making credit available for low-income communities, although it was a part of it in the sense that it did make mortgage backed securities more risky. Having sub-prime mortgages is, in of itself, not a bad thing actually. There are actually quite a few high-risk assets other than sub-prime mortgages that people can invest in, and the fact they are there is a good thing in a sense, because high risk assets also tend to have high yields, and it keeps the economy dynamic. The problem is really the lack of transparency in the valuation of investment assets, and that was really a critical component of the financial meltdown.

The second critical component was that banks who were dealing with these high-risk "AAA" investment securities were also trading in credit default swaps; essentially "insurance" (I use quotes because legally they can't be called "insurance", but they are basically an agreement that says "I'll cover your losses if this thing goes bust"; the reason why they didn't want to call it insurance is because by federal law that would require them to have enough liquidity on tap to pay off all CDS's they hold) against the default of those assets. AIG was heavily leveraged against these, and that's really the reason they went under after there was a run on the banks.

Two rules one should remember in investing: 1. There ain't no free lunch, and 2. Don't keep all your eggs in one basket. The banks missed these two fundamentals by a mile, but luckily, when you got Henry Paulson at the helm of the ship, you can get away with anything (and basically get bailed out of a mess that you created). But in any case, that's neither here nor there, because the bailout probably was ultimately necessary in the grand scheme of things. Unfortunately, America has a short memory and now there is little political will to reign in the "renegade" investing (where you can leverage "your" assets 32 to one; I use quotations on that because they are actually people's 401ks) of the banks. No I forgot government is the problem here. Not what is tantamount to someone selling you a coca-cola with arsenic in it.

As far as the debt goes, GWB had the debt above $10 trillion before Obama took office. Most economists agree that his tax cuts were a serious contributor to that (we basically instantaneously threw out the surplus when he did that). In much the same way that conservatives would say "more taxes does not equal a balanced budget" (which is true to a certain extent), "less taxes doesn't necessary mean a balanced budget either".

Here's an article that may illuminate the source of the public debt. I know, I know, it's from the fanatically liberal New York Times, but I thought I'd show it to you just in case of the slight chance you might be interested. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/24/opinion/sunday/24sun4.html?_r=1

The founding fathers I think would be proud that we are having a such a spirited and civil debate. Hopefully, the moderators will be tolerant of this too (bit off course from TESOL, but global economics does effect are career prospects).
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kona



Joined: 17 Sep 2011
Posts: 188
Location: USA

PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 4:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry about the double post. The browser was glitching out on me.
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