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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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 Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:08 am Post subject: |
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I don't mean a daily pullback...they have tough comps. E&P and integrateds likely the ones to pullback, services might be the place to be.
I am well versed in peak oil. Nobody knows what the reserves of the M.E. are.
I say it's time to get back into uranium, I bought some more UUU (formerly SXR) and am just about to buy some Cameco calls. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:11 am Post subject: |
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Here ya go.
Oil going higher.
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...Crude oil prices hit a series of record highs in the past month... after OPEC announced it would increase production by 500,000 barrels a day. The sharp spike went against post-Labor Day tradition...
Goldman Sachs raised its year-end price forecast... to $85 a barrel
What's behind the recent surge in crude oil prices?
The OPEC supply increase was too little, too late. The market is in a significant deficit... Non-OPEC supply has been extraordinarily disappointing... The second factor is... extraction costs are rising and have been since 2001.
So how high will prices climb?
Our high-risk scenario is in the $90 to $95 a barrel range.
Why hasn't OPEC increased supply?
First and foremost, domestic demand is strong in the entire Gulf region. Exports from the Middle East are lower today than they were in 2000, but production is up two million barrels a day... |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 5:18 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| I am well versed in peak oil. Nobody knows what the reserves of the M.E. are. |
If you are well-versed in Peak Oil but think oil is overpriced by a third, then I take it you either A. don't think the issue has legs or B think it's not imminent or C think solutions will prevent any or most negative effects?
There are very good guesses regarding the ME. The guess was that most of the claimed reserve raises in the '80's were bunk. WE have found out that in two cases, that was correct. There is no reason to think the other cases aren't equally false.
I don't want to turn this into a PO thread, but the two threads must necessarily cross over on occasion.
Oh, I agree about services. Manpower is low, need is high, so it's a sellers market for those selling services. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:09 am Post subject: |
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Gotta remember oil is denominated in U.S.$. Good interview with Dennis Gartman on CNBC just now. He said oil could trade down into the 60s. Dude knows a lot more than me and most people.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=553807452&play=1 |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Wed Oct 10, 2007 10:37 pm Post subject: |
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Great discussion - Oil, Energy & Iran
Art Laffer "... when oil comes down to $40 a barrel"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=554445311&play=1
Laffer $40s, Dennis Gartman $60s...maybe my $10-$30 lower prediction ain't so far off. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:09 am Post subject: |
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Maybe, but there are two sides to every discussion. In the end, only one can be right. Did they say how long they expect it to be at those prices? I'm thinking not. If it does go so low, it won't stay there long.
I'll hazard a guess: both persons mentioned have little or nothing to say about Peak Oil? If so, their analyses are already suspect in that they are incomplete. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:26 am Post subject: |
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Some dots get connected.
WE ARE IN A BAD FIX
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By Mathew Maavak
This is a planet in denial. While the existential question gets a red hot "apocalypse now" for an answer, our stock markets seem to have regained paradise lost.
We are witnessing nothing less than history's first confluence of unsustainable "peaks."
Perhaps we are incapable of piecing them all, for when crude oil reached an all-time intra-day high of $84.10 per barrel on Sept 20, its entitlement to a front pager screamer was conceded to the tale of a few thousand empty -- or emptying -- American homes.
It was like the Butterfly Effect, with a twist. The flapping rooftops of confiscated homes were now whipping up an economic tsunami worldwide.
Here is how it works.
US mortgage lenders, voracious as ever for "more," had extended loans to the default-income group, who, were in turn hit by bad economic management. Credit card issuers followed suit to bloat consumer fantasies, and banks tightened the noose with additional loans for cars, tuition and businesses.
In the world of finance, debt is ironically regarded as an "asset."... |
Cut due to it being covered here extensively already.
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Bull in the China Shop
The biggest economic success story of our times was the product of Western consumerism. It created a real supply and demand situation, which forced the relocation of factories to the Third World of cheap labor.
China was the champion recipient. Demand for toys, screws, machinery...
Factories, coal-fired plants, superhighways, skyscrapers were springing up at breakneck speed to fulfill the export craze...
What mattered were prestige, kickbacks and $1.2tr in hard currency-based reserves. It did not matter that China's domestic consumption vis a vis its GDP was actually decreasing...
Uncle Sam sneezed.
Global finance began hemorrhaging, and it had to be resuscitated through an intravenous flow of taxpayer money.
Western consumers finally realized that girths had to be tightened, and what to better way than to curb spending...
An entire supply chain leading to China's factories are in danger of folding up...
China is in a bad fix...
Events in Myanmar are not proving helpful. China enjoys a near monopoly over Myanmar's estimated 2.46 trillion cubic meters of gas and 3.2 billion barrels of crude oil...
The quid pro quo was arms supply and support at the UN for Myanmar's military junta...
The IAF recently destroyed a Syrian installation that was purportedly an embryonic nuclear facility, but may well turn out to be a Kolchuga-type passive radar system, ideal for downing B2 stealth bombers...
If a wider conflagration breaks out in the Middle East, there will be no oil flowing from the Straits of Hormuz to China, either through Sitte, or through the Straits of Malacca.
The best option for Beijing will be to lock its oil and gas grid to the Russian Far East at a breakneck speed, and clean up some level of air pollution in time for the 2008 Olympics...
The Peak Crises and its plural
...With crude oil hovering above $80 per barrel, the various subsidies built into national economies are bound to burst at the seams, and precipitate price increases for basic necessities.
There is however a unique solution -- falling consumer demand worldwide. That would crimp industrial demand for fossil fuel...
...Oil and other commodities are traded in dollars, and dollar-denominated assets outnumber assets weighed in other currencies. Beijing can dump its hundreds of billions in dollar reserves for euros, only to trade them back into dollars to buy crude oil, gold and other assets.
The dollar blackmail will not work...
Doomsday theorists are however predicting another Great Depression ahead, where the value of the dollar may mean little in the event of a global financial meltdown.
If this occurs, a global depression will have to deal with the following phenomena that was absent in the 30s.
Peak Urbanization: More than half of the world's population will live in urban areas in just... a few months, according to a United Nations Population Fund report. That translates to 3.3 billion people
...Close human proximity also leads to petty competitiveness and conflict. That is why "civilization" is held at gunpoint; by the police, by the army and by "treaties."
The urban life is delicate and vulnerable to all sorts of hazards, from plagues to a breakdown in the utilities, communications and transportation services. And political upheavals. A disaster will grind down traffic to a gridlock, far from the escapist countryside.
What if an energy warfare broke out? What if a global depression hits us? Can three billion people grow a patch of greens on their balconies?
When it comes to greens, the outlook is not at all verdant...
Peak Grain: Global grain stockpiles are down to their tightest levels in three decades... Global wheat stockpiles will fall to a 34-year low by June 2008... U.S. stockpiles will fall to lowest level since 1951-52. Wheat futures in Chicago reached $9.3925 a bushel late September... The price of a bushel has more than doubled in the past year.
The bushel of woes includes rice, barley, soybeans, sorghum, oats and lentils as well, and they are all sagging under record prices. The grapes of wrath have gone on to stalk eggs, cheese, milk, meat and the a la carte menu.
There may come a point when the industrial food chain has little choice but to pass the rising costs to consumers in a dramatic fashion.
Creeping upticks in the price of milk and bread are turning Europeans livid. Milk is now dubbed as the "new white gold."
It is not just bad weather to blame. Rising demand from China is pushing up prices...
The current biodiesel craze is inducing farms to purpose-plant their crops for the profitable bioenergy industry...
"It is high time to realise that the world community is approaching a food crisis in 2008 unless usage of agricultural products for biofuels is curbed or ideal weather conditions and sharply higher crop yields are achieved in 2008," it added
Peak Water: There is not enough freshwater around to sustain the planet's inland ecosystem and its human population... growth is already straining the capacities of water treatment plants worldwide... According to the Pacific Institute: "Over 1 billion people don't have access to clean drinking water; more than 2 billion lack access to adequate sanitation; and millions die every year due to preventable water-related diseases. Water resources around the globe are threatened by climate change, misuse, and pollution." It estimates that "over 34 million people might perish in the next 20 years from water-related disease...
As early as 1974, Iraq reportedly mobilized its army to target Syria's al-Thawra dam on the Euphrates. Israel has cast its own eyes on Lebanon's Litani River.
According to Former UN Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, "The next war in the Near (Middle) East will not be about politics, but over water."
Peak Fish:..."Ecologists worry that entire fisheries will collapse as... 'junk fish' are used up." Aquaculture, which substitutes marine catches to an extent, comes with its own environmental problems. [4]
The Times of London paints a similar gloomy scenario. According to some experts, 90% of fish around British waters "will disappear within 20 years"...
With 75% of fish stocks fully exploited, declining numbers across species worldwide hint at a collapse point by 2048, beyond which replenishment is not possible.
...Since the 1950s an estimated 60 per cent of stocks in British waters have collapsed..."
The full circle
What began as sub-prime woes in the US housing sector may ripple into something we cannot yet imagine. Will there be a severe global recession, or worse? If wars are yet contained, bidding wars will yet emerge over wheat, water, fish, medicines and oil. What will the future hold in this ecology of crises? |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:30 am Post subject: |
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Wow, peak oil is just a theory, there is no concrete evidence...hence the name Peak Oil THEORY. Why don't you watch the vids...open your mind brother. The futures are in backwardation as well. No they think it will stay down.
Nobody knows what the ME reserves actually are. 1-3 trillion barrels in oil sands.
Their comments are similar to mine, US $, substitutes, geopolitical premium, refiner capacity.
Gartman on CNBC again this morning.
It's very simple, if you think oil is going up, put every penny you have into it and you'll never have to worry about what the price is. I am confident in capitalism and innovation. Sure in the short term oil may go up but in the longer run it's coming down. That's my opinion, I have a couple of oil stocks but I am not aggresively buying here. Maybe the oil services or refiners but hopefully there will be a pullback. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:45 am Post subject: |
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Different spin on the same theme...
As the world burns
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by Richard Heinberg
...September is an equinoctial month�a time of momentary balance, instability, and change. Day and night are of equal length; however, the rate of change in the relative lengths of day and night is at its peak.
It�s been an unusually busy and stressful month for me personally...
The month was no less eventful for the rest of the world�though of course the scale of significance of the following items is approximately 6.7 billion times greater than for the preceding ones.
Maybe the best place to start is with a general comment. It�s getting pretty damn obvious that the world is sliding head-first into the abyss at an accelerating rate, with most Americans as oblivious as ever. The latest indication of impending doom is a festering credit crunch...
The deeper story is that this is just the last of a series of bubbles that the US Federal Reserve has inflated in order to sustain... a fundamentally unsound national financial condition.
As I explained in Chapter 2 of The Party�s Over, the US got rich exploiting its own resources and labor. Its most valuable resource�oil�went into decline forty years ago; since then, we Americans have tried to stay rich by exploiting other nations� labor and resources, using leveraged trade rules, dollar hegemony, and military threats.... The Chinese burned their coal and poisoned their workers and environment to make our stuff, enabling us to enjoy a cleaner environment by keeping our coal in the ground, while they loaned us the money to buy cheap Chinese stuff with. Such a deal!
Life in bubble world was grand while it lasted. First there was the Third World debt bubble of the �80s; then came the tech bubbles of the �90s; and finally the real estate bubble of the �00s...
But now we�re at the end of the line. At last the rest of the world is coming to realize that it doesn�t really need Americans: the Chinese can consume, too, after all. And the Asians can�t really justify loaning us more money; we�re not going to pay it back�or if we do, it will be in devalued dollars...
It�s also clear now that there are alternatives to the dollar, including the euro, the yen, and the yuan...
...The US can bomb to smithereens any country it chooses, but it can�t always count on forcing that country to hand over its resources at gunpoint.
The dollar is hitting record lows. Gold and silver are hot commodities�always a bad sign for the reigning paper currency. There are rumors of possible bank failures (following a run on one British bank). .
...Of course, another big event this month was oil�s nose-bleed ascent to record-high prices, over $82US per barrel. Part of the price hike resulted from the dollar�s weakness, but�as Goldman Sachs has pointed out�the main reason was simply that demand is up while supply is down. The May 2005 peak for the rate of production of regular crude and the July 2006 peak for all liquids are still holding....
As for Iran, �all options� are still on the table, and the pretext for a broad-scale air attack is apparently being patiently laid. Bush has vowed that he will not leave office with the Iran question unresolved...
But surely the single most important event of the month was the revelation that arctic sea ice is melting faster than even the most dire forecasts had predicted.... At this rate, the north polar region could be ice-free in summer by 2015.
Altogether, it was an extraordinary 30 days. Yet so far there�s been no instantaneous economic implosion, and there�s not much blood in the streets (except perhaps in Myanmar), and so the mainstream media can safely focus on the truly vital issues like O.J. Simpson�s current legal scrapes and Britney Spears�s performance at the MTV awards.
Many writers who discuss the sort of stuff that interests me (�reality� I think it�s called) wrap the unutterable sadness of it all in a crisp cellophane of cynicism. I�m guilty of that, too, from time to time�certainly in this little monthly summary. How else to make it somehow bearable? |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:04 am Post subject: |
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Richard Heinberg- "Peak Oil" fascist
Richard Heinberg's significance and his horrifying anti-humanism.
Richard Heinberg is a Stealth Fascist Who Epitomizes What the �Peak Oil� Philosophy is All About
... He currently speaks all around the country to large crowds, usually in politically liberal and leftist areas.
Why is Heinberg Important?
Heinberg is endorsed by the entirety of this crowd, and, indeed, they and their doomsday prediction of �Peak Oil� is gaining considerable attention both in the mainstream media these days and in political activist circles. �Peak Oil� is gaining a lot of acceptance with relatively little challenge across the western world, despite the fact that there is much disagreement amongst geologists and oil industry forecasters, and despite the fact that the �Peak Oil� people have declared �Peak� to be imminent many times before, and have been repeatedly wrong. Understanding who Richard Heinberg is sheds great light on understanding what �Peak Oil� is really all about.
Heinberg Supports Mass De-population
While Heinberg does not endorse a specific eugenics program, per se, he loudly calls for mass de-population. He favorably quotes Russell Hopfenberg and David Pimentel: �[I]f all people are to be fed adequately and equitably, we must have a gradual transition to a global population of 2 billion. A population policy ensuring that each couple produces an average of only 1.5 children would be necessary (The Party�s Over, page 226).
For anyone who sees this belief as possible benign, or does not understand mass de-population as part of the fascist agenda, it does not take many �degrees of separation� to see Heinberg�s connection to open eugenics.
On page 227 of The Party�s Over, Heinberg quotes Garret Hardin, an ecologist whom Heinberg endorses in multiple places in his book. Hardin is a famous de-population advocate, who is, tellingly, a grantee of the Pioneer Fund. The Pioneer Fund is an aboveground eugenics foundation that funds some of the most egregiously racist scientists in the world.
Far from dismissing the beliefs of the people who pay him, Hardin has based his career on this racist ideology. So, too, has Richard Heinberg.
Heinberg�s connections only get more extreme.
One Degree of Separation: Heinberg Supports an Open White Separatist!
On page 228 of The Party�s Over and at the very end of the following interview, http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/220, Heinberg endorses Virginia Abernathy, another population reductionist. Most notably, Abernathy�s �population reduction� stance fits within the rubric of her *white separatism.* Professor Abernathy writes for Occidental Quarterly ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occidental_Quarterly), a white supremacist publication.
Do alliances with eugenicist and white supremacist types necessarily make Heinberg a bad egg? Well, yes, but the story doesn�t end there. Heinberg closely associates with eugenics philosophy and does not disown it, while cloaking his own garb in eco-conservatism. Never supporting social justice or systemic political solutions or even acknowledging the power of the corporate and political ruling class, and always emphasizing individual and small-scale save-yourself-from-apocalypse measures, Heinberg is best understood as an *anti-humanist.* However, he�s being taken seriously in academia, and such is the threat of the modern eschatological horror show; it�s going mainstream.
Heinberg Denies That Clean Alternative Energies Such as Solar and Wind Can Replace Oil
Richard Heinberg never acknowledges the long history of oil industry suppression of viable (and cleaner) alternatives to oil, espec ially solar and wind energy, as documented in the book �Who Owns the Sun,� among other sources. Solar and wind power are the most natural, efficient and clean power sources, and their incorporation into mass usage is practical on both a humanistic and environmental level. Heinberg, in �The Party�s Over,� essentially dismisses solar altogether...
...One is left wondering why Heinberg is not calling for that allocation of resources- it doesn�t seem like much in the big picture, does it?- rather than drumming up Armageddon.
By Adam Hurter http://www.indymedia.org/pt/2005/11/827613.shtml |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:27 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
Richard Heinberg- "Peak Oil" fascist
Richard Heinberg's significance and his horrifying anti-humanism.
Richard Heinberg is a Stealth Fascist Who Epitomizes What the �Peak Oil� Philosophy is All About |
If you want to be taken seriously, don't go Joo on the topic. That article is a pile of dung, even if correct. Fascist? For *beep*'s sake, man.
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| politically liberal and leftist areas. |
Ooooh! Let's use scary words!
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| Heinberg is endorsed by the entirety of this crowd |
Flagrant falsehood.
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| �Peak Oil� is gaining a lot of acceptance with relatively little challenge across the western world |
Flagrant falsehood. The issue has been around since the 1950's and is just this year getting attention beyond a very small group of people. I'd love to see a poll on this issue. I'd be willing to bet the number of people aware of it is less than 20%. And that is being generous. Look at the responses on this board. There are a total of about three people who take the issue seriously.
I won't give such tripe any more attention than that. Come back with something worthy of attention and minus all the name-calling and bullshit. I don't like bullshit straw men. Let the argument stand or fall on it's own.
I am disappointed in this turn of events. And, no, I am not familiar with Heinberg. I took the article on its own merits. You should be able to do the same.
The fact is, depopulation happens. Throughout history civilizations have risen, fallen and disappeared. People overextend and then people start dying. Humans are no different from any other natural population. Go count animals on the Serengeti for a few summers and see what you discover.
But, first, find me a single article or even sentence where Heinberg advocates killing people or allowing them to die needlessly. Without even knowing his work, I am fairly certain you cannot. |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 5:12 am Post subject: |
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Can you guess which wild nutcase thinks alternative fuels (shale oil, heavy crude, tar sands, coal-to-liquids and enhanced oil recovery (EOR)) will provide at the absolute most 7 million barrels a day by 2035?
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| As previously noted, no single fuel source is likely to be adequate to substantially reduce America�s dependence on imported oil. Even with the production of almost 7 million barrels per day of incremental supply by 2035, unconventional fuels development would only slightly reduce the volume of net imports, after offsetting expected demand growth. As such, reducing demand must also be part of the nation�s overall strategy for lowering imports and achieving greater self sufficiency. |
No silver bullet |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 6:22 am Post subject: |
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Standard and Poor at an all time high!!! 
1,572.64 points at 10:50am EST. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:19 pm Post subject: |
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Beware Big Oil stocks
Some analysts say there's a good reason shares of oil firms haven't jumped along with crude prices: The price of oil is just too high.
By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
October 1 2007: 10:26 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With crude prices jumping to record highs, yet the stock of big oil firms rising only modestly, it may be tempting to put money into the energy sector.
Some analysts say that would be a bad bet.
Special Reportfull coverage
Think oil can't go higher? Think again
Oil jumps almost $2, nears record
Gasoline prices decline
ConocoPhillips sees production drop
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"Nobody in his right mind thinks this oil price is sustainable or justified by market fundamentals," said Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst at Oppenheimer. "The higher prices go, the greater the risk for downside potential."
Over the last month the price of U.S. crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange has surged nearly 20 percent, hitting a record high of $83.90 a barrel last week.
The debate behind $80 oil
Yet the AMEX oil and gas index, which tracks both large and small U.S. oil companies as well as refiners and oil service firms, has risen just over 6 percent over the same time.
The big integrated oil companies haven't done much better. Exxon Mobil (Charts, Fortune 500) and ConocoPhillips (Charts, Fortune 500) are up about 8 percent, while Chevron (Charts, Fortune 500) has risen just over 6 percent.
Gheit said investors are betting oil prices won't stay at their current record levels.
His view is by no means unanimous across the industry. Many experts say a limited supply coupled with seemingly infinite new demand does justify oil prices above $80.
"With China and India growing the way they are, they're just not going to go down," said Harry Clark, whose firm Clark Capital Management has a buy rating on the whole energy sector. "$100 oil, it's only a matter of when, not if."
But Gheit seemed to think the sector may be played out. He pointed to the impressive growth the sector has seen over the last five years - crude prices along with shares of Exxon, Conoco and Chevron have roughly tripled during that time.
"A lot of people say energy has already exceeded the wildest expectations," he said. "If oil prices come down, you're going to see total migration out of the sector" and into things like technology, which has lagged the broader market for the last several years.
How far energy prices might come down, if they come down at all, is anyone's guess.
Oil company stock is currently valued as if crude cost $60 a barrel, according to Mark Gilman, a New York-based oil and gas analyst with the brokerage The Benchmark Co.
But given what it costs to produce a barrel of crude and the amount of oil left in the ground, Gilman thinks even $60 is too high.
"You take out all the fluff and the fear and the speculation, and $35 to $40 is where the price of crude ultimately belongs," he said.
When asked if that could mean a halving of Big Oil share prices, he said that sounded about right.
But even if crude falls to $60 a barrel, it's still far higher than the industry has historically been making. With capital projects planned around a crude price of $30 to $40 a barrel, the oil firms might be flush with cash for years to come, returning that money to shareholders in the form of dividend increases and share buybacks. Wouldn't that alone bid up the stock price?
Gheit said no.
"Investors reward the rate of change, not the level of profit," he said. "No one thinks oil prices can triple again in the next five years." |
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keane
Joined: 09 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:00 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| "You take out all the fluff and the fear and the speculation, and $35 to $40 is where the price of crude ultimately belongs," he said. |
Yeah, let's not consider that crude production peaked two years ago, that demand is at around 2% a year nor that those nations in decline are doing so at around 4% a year. While we're at it, let's not consider Cantarell at all. Let's forget that despite adding hundreds of drilling rigs and prices being over $70 a barrel Saudi production has been declining for two years and the rest of the world has basically been flat... After all, $70 - $80 oil is no incentive.
All fluff, that. |
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