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Ahn Chul-Soo - the next Korean president?
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He chose to cut off tours when the tourist was shot. But you're right, he didn't go to war over those issues.

Do you think he should have?

What would Roh or DJ have done - give the North MORE money? Slip them a few more cows??

LMB did what was rational - cut/reduce the flow of cash going from this country to the one that is shooting at us.


This whole 'flexibility' thing is just political posturing. Ahn will not be able to achieve anything with the North that THEY do not want.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
How's this for a revelation - the relationship between the North and the South is only as good as the North wants it to be. THEY dictate the pace and mood of the relationship. DJ wasnt the first ROK president to propose a meeting... but he was the first to be accepted by the North. THEY chose because it suited THEIR needs.

The North will do what it feels is best in its interest. And if they view contact/exchange with the South as being such, they'll push for it. If pumping up the chest of their military is a priority, they'll push for that.

Whoever is sitting in the Blue House is irrelevant.


I think this is exactly right.

The South should be flexible to the extent that it should be open to better relations, but only on the condition of good behavior by the North. In addition, for every grant of development money, there should be some concession from the North.
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DIsbell



Joined: 15 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And when you completely walk away from talks and close down all your avenues of trade, how do you make any demands or negotiate concessions? You have no way to apply pressure if you leave the table- you've played your last card, and NK will just go toChina for help.

Did Reagan cut of all talks with the Soviets?

Also, I'd say working the China angle gives the best chance of making NK do something they don't want to. Ahn strikes me as savvy in this regard.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Thu Aug 09, 2012 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DIbell, has the ROK cut off all connections with the DPRK? Have they ceased ALL talks?

No.

So stop setting up strawmen.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DIsbell wrote:
And when you completely walk away from talks and close down all your avenues of trade, how do you make any demands or negotiate concessions? You have no way to apply pressure if you leave the table- you've played your last card, and NK will just go toChina for help.

Did Reagan cut of all talks with the Soviets?

Also, I'd say working the China angle gives the best chance of making NK do something they don't want to. Ahn strikes me as savvy in this regard.


What do you mean by 'working the China angle'?

China's long-term goal is to eject the US from the peninsula. Whether she wants to or not, she has to tolerate just about any shenanigans from the Norks in the meantime (Re: ...the Norks getting their own nukes and Chonan Incident).

The good news is that NK praised the Vietnamese and Chinese economic reforms today. This may indicate that Norks will begin to adopt modernization. Marxists around the world may be gnashing their teeth tonight. So sad.

The next president, Pres. Park, will no doubt have to come up with a policy that accomodates an improved NK economic situation, but holds out a one-party political program. The pro-Norks down here will have to make some fast adjustments.
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maximmm



Joined: 01 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2012 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Read the original post - his views seem OK.

Fact is, SK and NK were by far closer to reunification under the leftist government. Yep, reunification, if it occurs, will lead to major problems in the beginning - it would be akin to chaos, much like when the two Germanys reunited, but it will benefit both Koreas in the long run.

In regards to China - yes, Korea has become an economic power with USA's help, but the fact of the matter is that China's economy is growing at the very rapid pace, while USA is slowing and will continue to slow as long as it continues to use its current economy system where jobs are outsourced to the countries with cheapest labor. China is not only closer to Korea, but it's also going to become the top economic superpower in the near future. Thinking ahead is the way to go - the fact that he wishes to balance Korea's economic relationship between US and China is actually quite reasonable in that regard.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2012 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You might want to read his quote again. He's talking about being diplomatically closer to China. He wants to diplomatically balance between China and the US.

As to economics, China is already SK's largest trading partner. That's not something he can achieve.



I'm curious why you think that the Koreas were closer to reunification under the Sunshine Policy. What tangible steps were in place then, that are not in place now, that made you think reunification was so much closer?
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maximmm



Joined: 01 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The fact that it was discussed in the government circles. It hasn't been discussed for a while now - ever since 2MB took over and took major steps away from helping NK with food/money/etc.

What should we call the food/money that was sent to NK? Bribe or a gesture of good will? It doesn't even matter, since that act did create an environment in which reunification talks were actually possible.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unification talks are always possible.

Alien invasions are possible.

Many things are possible.



Now, what was probable? Was the leadership of the DPRK REALLY willing to open up its borders? Really willing to allow unification? Really wanting its people to see how those in the South are living?

No way.


They weren't any closer to unification. There were bribes/gifts given, and lip service dealt out... But there was no way that the DPRK elite were going to fundamentally change their power structure... One that relies on absolute control over their people.




Again, if unification ever happens, it'll be because of conditions in the North, not because of who's in the Blue House.
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tiger fancini



Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Location: Testicles for Eyes

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

maximmm wrote:
The fact that it was discussed in the government circles. It hasn't been discussed for a while now - ever since 2MB took over and took major steps away from helping NK with food/money/etc.

What should we call the food/money that was sent to NK? Bribe or a gesture of good will? It doesn't even matter, since that act did create an environment in which reunification talks were actually possible.


It may have been discussed in government circles, but that doesn't mean it was any closer to actually happening. Perhaps 2MB's government considered all of the food/money sent up north a waste, as it's not particularly easy to see how such things have benefited the average North Korean citizen living outside of Pyongyang.

The North Korean regime's sole aim is survival. At any cost. If survival means offering false hope to the south, and getting paid to do so, then they're probably going to continue milking that angle.
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maximmm



Joined: 01 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fact is, 2mb came into power, discussions of reunification stopped, NK has gone nuclear, conflict between the two Koreas has gotten worse.

No doubt this is because of Kim Jong Il and not because of 2MB. Absolutely everything depends on NK and SK government is and has always been innocent - and if SK decides to hold military drills right next to NK border, why is it SK's problem? NK is the sole problem to everything that has ever happened, that much is clear. What? It takes two to tango? Not in this case, it's all NK.

I could go on, you know.

What is obvious is that we are of different opinions on this matter.
I think that sunshine policy was good for the future of two Koreas, especially if it were allowed to continue, and cutting it into shreds had a very negative impact on the relations between the two countries.

The good thing is, 2MB is about to be gone, unless he starts an actual war over Dokdo with Japan just to be reelected;)
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You could go on, but you'd sound dumb.

You honestly think that North Korea went nuclear under 2MB? Yeah, that's right, that program started up when he got elected, and they broke speed records developing it. lol

As for those drills you seem to like to point to, you do know that both sides conduct military drills, right? That North Korea has made drills where their tanks roll on through SK landmarks?

No one is saying this conflict is a one way street. That's your feeble strawman.

What I did say was that it doesn't matter who's in the Blue House. It doesn't matter that nearly every SK president has sought meetings with the North. What does matter is the political climate in the North... And that's something no one here knows anything about.

So yeah, please do go on. Because you're making yourself look pretty bad.
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tiger fancini



Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Location: Testicles for Eyes

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

maximmm wrote:
Fact is, 2mb came into power, discussions of reunification stopped, NK has gone nuclear, conflict between the two Koreas has gotten worse.

No doubt this is because of Kim Jong Il and not because of 2MB. Absolutely everything depends on NK and SK government is and has always been innocent - and if SK decides to hold military drills right next to NK border, why is it SK's problem? NK is the sole problem to everything that has ever happened, that much is clear. What? It takes two to tango? Not in this case, it's all NK.

I could go on, you know.

What is obvious is that we are of different opinions on this matter.
I think that sunshine policy was good for the future of two Koreas, especially if it were allowed to continue, and cutting it into shreds had a very negative impact on the relations between the two countries.

The good thing is, 2MB is about to be gone, unless he starts an actual war over Dokdo with Japan just to be reelected;)


Tensions have increased under 2MB's government, but in my view that's because he has actually used a somewhat tough approach with the north compared with previous Presidents. I say somewhat tough, because it's still the north who are doing the killing and using the REALLY tough rhetoric. Naval officers, civilians and tourists from the south have all died at the hands of the north during the last 5 years, with little to no apology.

As pointed out, nobody really has any clue on what is going on up there. One can only make guesses. But in my mind, to even consider that the Kim regime would accept any form of unification that it did not control totally is pretty ridiculous.
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maximmm



Joined: 01 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain Corea wrote:
You could go on, but you'd sound dumb.

You honestly think that North Korea went nuclear under 2MB? Yeah, that's right, that program started up when he got elected, and they broke speed records developing it. lol

As for those drills you seem to like to point to, you do know that both sides conduct military drills, right? That North Korea has made drills where their tanks roll on through SK landmarks?

No one is saying this conflict is a one way street. That's your feeble strawman.

What I did say was that it doesn't matter who's in the Blue House. It doesn't matter that nearly every SK president has sought meetings with the North. What does matter is the political climate in the North... And that's something no one here knows anything about.

So yeah, please do go on. Because you're making yourself look pretty bad.



"it doesn't matter who's in the Blue House." Bull, and I've said exactly how so, but .... making myself look bad would be to attempt to explain it to you ... again. I'll stop here before I make a complete fool out of myself;)


Last edited by maximmm on Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:36 am; edited 1 time in total
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maximmm



Joined: 01 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tiger fancini wrote:


Tensions have increased under 2MB's government, but in my view that's because he has actually used a somewhat tough approach with the north compared with previous Presidents. I say somewhat tough, because it's still the north who are doing the killing and using the REALLY tough rhetoric. Naval officers, civilians and tourists from the south have all died at the hands of the north during the last 5 years, with little to no apology.

As pointed out, nobody really has any clue on what is going on up there. One can only make guesses. But in my mind, to even consider that the Kim regime would accept any form of unification that it did not control totally is pretty ridiculous.


I agree that 2MB's tough approach is the cause of the increase in tensions between the two countries. Fact is, NK's leadership was a bit unstable and their tough and somewhat outlandish rhetoric is a proof of that. At the same time, prior to 2MB, when Bush was still in power, there was even talk of signing peace accord between the two Koreas. That could have been a major step toward, if not reunification, then at least a peaceful co-existence.

Looking at things from the present perspective and seeing how messy things have become and how aggressive NK has been in the recent years, it's easy to forget where things stood prior to 2MB's coming.
I do not blame 2MB for the mental instability of Kim Jong Il, but I do blame him for pretty much burning all the bridges the previous president has built.

I have students who have mental issues - they require a cautious and careful approach. You may even befriend them. At the same time, you start being tough with them, and deal with them as you would with other students, you will quickly see them scream, start throwing things, go mental. 2MB did not see that, at all - that's why the relationship between NK and SK did not only not improve, but it actually got substantially worse.
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