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The Great China Hype Thread
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Mon Jun 18, 2012 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No you are wrong. I just told you how to find it. Google Tibetan nun killed by Chinese border guards. Great firewall prevents me from accessing certain items. But take the two seconds to do it yourself..

But just name calling as usual no facts no knowledge.

Please again tell me how Chinese landlords have different attitudes about long term and short term risks. Not really sure i got that. lets see value of property goes down so tear building down which brings value to zero. this does what??.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Turns Out China IS Lying About Everything

Quote:
Even that lonely indicator that some, even us, had considered somewhat realistic: electric output, is a mirage.

Quote:

Electricity production and consumption have been considered a telltale sign of a wide variety of economic activity. They are widely viewed by foreign investors and even some Chinese officials as the gold standard for measuring what is really happening in the country’s economy, because the gathering and reporting of data in China is not considered as reliable as it is in many countries.
...
But an economist with ties to the agency said that officials had begun making inquiries after detecting signs that electricity numbers may have been overstated.
...
Another top corporate executive in China with access to electricity grid data from two provinces in east-central China that are centers of heavy industry, Shandong and Jiangsu, said that electricity consumption in both provinces had dropped more than 10 percent in May from a year earlier. Electricity consumption has also fallen in parts of western China. Yet, the economist with ties to the statistical agency said that cities and provinces across the country had reported flat or only slightly rising electricity consumption.


So... let's see here: huge disparity between what is represented and what the reality is... a crucial political election... and a regime that many have accused of misreporting critical data for years (even if others captured media outlets accuse the former of being conspiracy theorists)...

Why... could this possibly mean that every piece of data out of the US is just as made up and just as meaningless? Now that would be truly unpossible.


The gov't statistics were worse than many of us had thought.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
No you are wrong. I just told you how to find it. Google Tibetan nun killed by Chinese border guards. Great firewall prevents me from accessing certain items. But take the two seconds to do it yourself..


Actually it took me 7 seconds . . .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nangpa_La_shooting_incident
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2012 9:27 am    Post subject: ... Reply with quote

Kuros, did you just a page back accuse me of arguing in bad faith?

Maybe you missed something, but for months we've been talking about Chinese troops exchanging fire with Nepalese border guards, which I say is a lie.

So you found it, eh?

Right on. Quote what you've found.

And Rollo, that page is blocked by the firewall?

More lying.

Reading comprehension?
Embarassed Laughing Twisted Evil
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are absolutely a great human with more knowledge than any other person on earth. you are never wrong. Now will you go away.

If you do not even know what the "great firewall is" why are you commenting on China?

Your ignorance about property ownership, economics, currency exchange, was only topped by you r denying that their is a cleansing, purification, purge choose your terminology going on in the CCP. A college president in Jiangsu and a couple of generals are the latest victims of the "anti-corruption" campaign.
o
What to watch for in the next few months is if they actually do try a new stimulus plan. The last one fueled the current inflation. They seemed to have tamped it down some but the new move if implemented could start inflation raging again. Xi needs to be very very careful with this. It will be the top item on his agenda, after he solidifies his power. He will have to throw a bone to the real estate speculators and banks and the regional party bosses. But too much he could lose the middle class.
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Tue Jul 03, 2012 1:54 pm    Post subject: ... Reply with quote

Quote:
If you do not even know what the "great firewall is" why are you commenting on China?


The site you lie about being blocked isn't blocked. What is blocked is this forum. Twisted Evil Talk your way out of that.

The site you say contains evidence of Chinese firing on Nepalese border guards, which you've now had a full season to produce,contains no such evidence.

Kuros obviously can't find any of that evidence either or he'd have posted it in the 16 seconds it took him to follow your non-lead. Laughing

Lies.
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2012 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Muddy Waters has done some excellent research on fraud in China. They helped expose the gigantic SinoForest fraud. Here's the report on SinoForest:

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/MW_TRE_060211.pdf

and a more recent analysis:

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/MW_FrauducationWhitePaper.pdf

There has been a recent bout of auditor resignations in Hong Kong. This suggests that something is afoot.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Jul 04, 2012 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This could mean that Xi is serious about fighting corruption or he wants to replace corrupt officials with his own thieves. So much is a mystery because you can never trust the numbers and the corruption is staggering.

I think there is a real effort at getting rid of corruption but it is so entrenched along with the fudging the numbers that it seems hopeless.

The hi-speed train fiasco where sub standard materials were used in the construction and millions of yuan were pocketed by the railroad chief and his cronys;s is another example. China rail is about 790 million yuan in debt because of graft and incompetence and their are serious safety concerns on new rail lines.
Also Xi is wiping out his enemies, getting rid of any opposition. this has always been standard practice for a new emperor and that is what he is. Look at the make up of the Chinese government it is identical to the Qing dynasty in many ways. The emperor was chosen from a clan that had elite status, in this case the inner circles of the party. He had to be descended from nobility, Xi's father was a politburo member. A small council of ministers and a larger council of the nations nobility. The politburo and the peoples congress are a mirror of the Qing governing bodies. The purge seems more thorough than when Hu took power, Hu limited his attacks mostly to the Shanghai party arresting about 400 members because Shanghai had been the base of Jiang 's power. Xi's culling seems to be more widespread and he is not limiting himself to party bosses but going after bankers, lawyers, and yeah even accountant .s. Sino forest is the tip of a very large iceberg. Whole cities built which remain empty. In Dalian it was estimated that a third of the education budget went for banquets for party bosses.

The Guanzhou trade fair drew almost no one this year, seven years ago it was so crowded people were actually fighting as they tried to shove there way into the hall to sign deals. Everyone was going to get rich on the China trade. After Huge investments in China and people wonder why Europe and the U.S are in debt crisises, one of the main reasons is they bet big on China it paid off at first but now it looks like a loser.

overhyped over sold!!!
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here it comes . . .

Shadow Bankers Vanishing Leave China Victims Seeing Scams

Quote:
In the first half of the year, more than 58,000 lawsuits involving disputes over 28.4 billion yuan in private lending were filed in Zhejiang province, where Wenzhou is located, up 27 percent from the same period in 2011 and the most in five years, according to the provincial supreme court. One-fifth of the cases were in Wenzhou, where authorities have set up a special court to handle the surge.

Private-lending victims nationwide filed more than 600,000 lawsuits valued at 110 billion yuan in 2011, an increase of 38 percent from the previous year. In the first half of 2012, the number of filings rose 25 percent to 376,000, according to People’s Court, a newspaper run by China’s Supreme Court.

In Wenzhou, an export hub where almost 90 percent of families have taken part in underground lending, more than 100 people have fled, committed suicide or declared bankruptcy since August 2011, and at least 800 lending brokers have gone bankrupt, Xinhua News Agency reported in May. Home prices there declined 16 percent in July compared with a year earlier, the fifth consecutive monthly decline, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

“It’s time for payback for the unchecked growth of China’s shadow-banking activity,” said Yao Wei, a Hong Kong-based economist at Societe Generale SA, who estimates that as much as 2 trillion yuan of underground lending may default eventually. “The risks are culminating, and part of the system is doomed to collapse. On the flip side, this gives policy makers an opportunity to put in place oversight for a sector that should have been regulated a long time ago.”


This won't lead to a U.S.-style Great Depression circa 2008. No, but this may well lead to unrest and political instability.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu Sep 13, 2012 6:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Wenzhounese are reknown as businessmen in China. This is where the first experiments with capitalism were tried. The shadow bankers charge 38% interest. If Wenzhou is going down then this is a very bad sign.

Where is Xi Jinpeng???? All the government media talks about is the Daiyou Islands and how evil Japan is. Somethings up.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2014 3:05 pm    Post subject: China's Debt Crisis Reply with quote

China's debt crisis has arrived.

China and the Dangers of Debt

Quote:
[T]he continued borrowing by western countries was not sustainable and by 2008 global demand for Chinese goods collapsed. China’s current account surplus declined from over 10% of GDP in 2007 to about 2% in 2011 and put severe downward pressure on China’s growth rate. How could China create new demand for its productive capacity?

The answer once again came in the form of a rapid rise in domestic private debt. The Chinese state-owned banks with explicit prodding from the government opened their spigots. The country has seen an explosive growth in domestic private debt since 2008. In fact the graph above does not do justice to the actual increase in debt because it misses the large increase in domestic debt due to the rise of “shadow banking system” in China.

The basic point is that China is looking increasingly towards higher domestic debt to sustain its growth rate. But if we have learned anything from Kindleberger, it is that such tendencies should raise concerns.


China foreign debt surpasses $750 billion

Quote:
The amount of debt China owes foreign lenders — to those who are inclined to believe what the government says — is approaching the $1 trillion market. It will be there, if it is not already, before the end of the year.

As of March, it hit $764 billion, up from $736 billion in February, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said on its website on Friday.


Luckily, Beijing has reserves.

Quote:
China's overall debt-to-GDP ratio has sprung to over 200% from about 120% in five years. Most of this is from local governments and state-supported companies.

A long-term solution, although one fraught with moral hazard, is for China's central government to absorb some debt before a crisis emerges. Beijing has the capacity, thanks to its enormous taxing powers and a modest central government debt level of 23% to GDP. The financial system overall runs a current-account surplus, meaning there are no foreign creditors to please. Shifting debt burdens within an economy is filled with perils, however, as Europe and the U.S. have seen.
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:44 am    Post subject: ... Reply with quote

I will persist with my ongoing position: China isn't other countries due to the massive room it still has for domestic expansion (I'm going to use expansion so as not to confuse the term with growth, that singular statistic everyone seems to hang on), not mention potential international expansion. The vast geographic and economic state that the country is means that you can't look at other countries and decide what's going to happen in China (a common theme of others on this thread).

What will the impact be of a "debt crisis"? An economic collapse and a depression? Wasn't that what Dr Doom predicted for the US in 2008? Hasn't been a fun time, but didn't happen.

China at 1 TRILLION dollars? Meh... Here's some interesting numbers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

In any case, what can we expect if the RMB takes a nosedive? Most likely, an FDI fire sale.

And here is my counter news analysis:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/02/19/is-china-at-risk-of-a-debt-crisis-not-really-economists-say/
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yuan took a nose dive. Everyone pretending that this is some brilliant long range plan by the leadership. THE EMPEROR has no clothes.!!!
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:02 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

Nowhere Man wrote:
I will persist with my ongoing position: China isn't other countries due to the massive room it still has for domestic expansion (I'm going to use expansion so as not to confuse the term with growth, that singular statistic everyone seems to hang on), not mention potential international expansion. The vast geographic and economic state that the country is means that you can't look at other countries and decide what's going to happen in China (a common theme of others on this thread).


Even your Chinese exceptionalism remains a far cry from the original prediction which prompted this thread.

Quote:
$123,000,000,000, as in China's GDP will be $123 trillion by 2040
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No_hite_pls



Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Location: Don't hate me because I'm right

PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:38 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

Nowhere Man wrote:


China at 1 TRILLION dollars? Meh... Here's some interesting numbers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt



According to the list Ireland's debt is over a half a million per capita.. WHAT THE FOX SAY!! Shocked Shocked
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