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nautilus
Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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 Posted: Wed Jan 23, 2013 4:46 pm Post subject: China turning its back on North Korea? |
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Interesting to see China increasingly going against NK.
Although sanctions can have no effect on a state whose ideology is racism against outsiders.
Rather it pushes them deeper into madness. Will we see another nuclear test soon?
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:39 am Post subject: Re: China turning its back on North Korea? |
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| nautilus wrote: |
| Rather it pushes them deeper into madness. Will we see another nuclear test soon? |
Signs point to 'yes'. |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 5:02 am Post subject: |
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| If North Korea destabilizes .the Chinese already have a plan in place and troops massed to seize North Korea. The rhetoric by the North seemed to be inviting a U.S. airstrike on the nuclear facilities. China then rushes to the rescue and after the looting and rape festival has a new mass of very cheap labor and it changes the strategic landscape in Asia. But this will end in more Chinese intervention/control in the North the Chinese want the absorbtion to be peaceful. |
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NohopeSeriously
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: The Christian Right-Wing Educational Republic of Korea
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:09 am Post subject: |
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| If North Korea becomes a part of China, we can safely say that Japan and South Korea will fall under the Chinese sphere of influence. |
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nautilus
Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 6:40 am Post subject: |
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| NohopeSeriously wrote: |
| If North Korea becomes a part of China, we can safely say that Japan and South Korea will fall under the Chinese sphere of influence. |
Historically of course it was China that fell under japans influence. They kicked a*s.
Originally the US wanted the south because it formed a buffer to protect their main economic partner japan, mostly from the russians.
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One facet of the changing attitude toward Korea and whether to get involved was Japan. Especially after the fall of China to the Communists, "...Japan itself increasingly appeared as the major East Asian prize to be protected". U.S. East Asian experts saw Japan as the critical counterweight to the Soviet Union and China in the region. While there was no United States policy that dealt with South Korea directly as a national interest, its proximity to Japan pushed South Korea to the fore. "The recognition that the security of Japan required a non-hostile Korea led directly to President Truman's decision to intervene... The essential point... is that the American response to the North Korean attack stemmed from considerations of US policy toward Japan."[90] The United States wanted to shore up Japan to make it a viable counterweight against the Soviet Union and China, and Korea was seen as integral to that end.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War#Factors_in_U.S._intervention
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Anyway, must be pretty hard for koreans to realize they only got helped out in order to protect Japan! |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 8:33 am Post subject: |
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Well a united korea is an invitation to war. With Korea you control the sea lanes to japan and the east coast of China and also Vladivostock. korea is the springboard to invade japan. Air forces in korea can easily hit either Beijing or Tokyo. Its strategic significance means everybody wants some. Dividing it was the answer. the Soviet bloc and friends got the North. the U.s. got the SOuth. Both North and South as semi independent states works very well.
nautilus is quite correct about the south sheilding Japan from Russian ambitions.
I think some of this bluster is because the U.S. has made major moves to bulk up in the region, in the Phillipines in particular and China sent a message. We won't let them get too crazy but don't push us too far! Power games!! Started in the 1890's led to Russo-Japan war. Korea was then used by Japan to launch it's assault on china.
Unfortunately Korea is located between elephants who are jostling for position I will be curious how the Russians behave in the next few months. theyhave sent a lot of fire power into the region in the last few years. Japan of course has been expanding its military for the last decade. Dangerous stuff!!! |
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:59 am Post subject: |
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If there is a major war in Asia, it will be because of America's fascinating, yet complicated, relations with the various nations in Asia. And America's lack of understanding of China's historical position in Asia.
Japan historically wasn't a power, it's only since the Meiji Restoration that Japan really became a power that could keep China's ambitions at bay (that's 1870-ish to now out of 2000 years). Historically China was the only power. Virtually every single (if not all) East and South-East Asian country has paid regular tribute to China at one point in the last 2000 years.
Anyways, I don't see China outright wanting to absorb NK. It just won't look good and makes absolutely little sense. What they'll do is get south Korea as economically dependent on China as possible and let Koreans sort out the issue by themselves. As long as Korea is firmly in China's corner all will be happy. All Asia will probably have China as their biggest trading partner, even Japan. And trading partners don't like going to war with each other. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| If there is a major war in Asia, it will be because of America's fascinating, yet complicated, relations with the various nations in Asia. And America's lack of understanding of China's historical position in Asia. |
No, if there's a major war in Asia, it will be only in spite of America's presence there as a third-party broker.
The East Asian powers, China, South Korea, North Korea, and Japan, all have different histories. They each cannot agree upon what happened within the last 100 years, much less what came before that.
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| Japan historically wasn't a power, it's only since the Meiji Restoration that Japan really became a power that could keep China's ambitions at bay (that's 1870-ish to now out of 2000 years). Historically China was the only power. Virtually every single (if not all) East and South-East Asian country has paid regular tribute to China at one point in the last 2000 years. |
This is extremely Sinophilic. Whether or not Japan was 'historically' a power matters less than whether Japan today is a power, which of course, it is. Chinese hegemony cannot premise itself entirely on 5000-year-old norms, most of which are imagined and revisionist. It must demonstrate its power here today.
Basically, jvalmer wants to blame WWIII on America because Japan and South Korea resolutely and understandably reject Communist Chinese hegemony over Asia. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 2:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| This is extremely Sinophilic. Whether or not Japan was 'historically' a power matters less than whether Japan today is a power, which of course, it is. Chinese hegemony cannot premise itself entirely on 5000-year-old norms, most of which are imagined and revisionist. It must demonstrate its power here today. |
Exactly. The notion that China is the middle kingdom that has a natural/inevitable influence over the rest of Asia is flat out rejected by other Asian countries. The Japanese will never view it that way as they are a major player with dynamic relations with other countries all over the world (not to mention many Japanese don't even really consider themselves part of 'Asia', except for in the narrow geographical sense).
China is also basically a captive market for Western corporations and lacks military power anywhere near what the US has, so it's hardly going to receive the kind of respect from parties involved that has been given to the US.
Last edited by visitorq on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:05 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:05 pm Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
If there is a major war in Asia, it will be because of America's fascinating, yet complicated, relations with the various nations in Asia. And America's lack of understanding of China's historical position in Asia.
Japan historically wasn't a power, it's only since the Meiji Restoration that Japan really became a power that could keep China's ambitions at bay (that's 1870-ish to now out of 2000 years). Historically China was the only power. Virtually every single (if not all) East and South-East Asian country has paid regular tribute to China at one point in the last 2000 years.
Anyways, I don't see China outright wanting to absorb NK. It just won't look good and makes absolutely little sense. What they'll do is get south Korea as economically dependent on China as possible and let Koreans sort out the issue by themselves. As long as Korea is firmly in China's corner all will be happy. All Asia will probably have China as their biggest trading partner, even Japan. And trading partners don't like going to war with each other. |
Hi member of the CCP! Nice of you to join us on this board!
Are you that familiar with Japanese history? Doesn't sound like it.
And blaming the US for a war between Asian countries? WTF? Really?? Give me a break... |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Thu Jan 24, 2013 5:41 pm Post subject: |
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Well if Japan was'nt a power, how did they defeat Yuan China twice, invaded korea and ravaged the Chinese coast constantly for two centuries. all before the Meiji period.
The U.s. and China have a long history, mostly of good relations baring the Mao period.
If there is a war in Asia it will be because of geography and history, the U.S. has no interest in starting a war. |
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nautilus
Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Gotta wonder if something happened behind the scenes between the two countries? How much pull does China still have in Pyongyang. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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I think that's the only way to get he North to realize how far out there it is. With China making up most of its shortfalls, the DPRK can continue to funnel funds into its aggressive military programs.
I'd love to see ALL aid tied to monitoring and, to a lesser extent, the peace process. |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:30 am Post subject: |
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I agree with the Captain. the blackmailing of the South by the North has to be stopped. the Sunshine policy has led to this.
Today the Japanese announced they are expanding their defense forces. |
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