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The Depression Thread
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Mon Oct 21, 2013 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

QE to infinity (ie "no tapering).

Two different economists make similar observations:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/10/martin-wolf-on-the-contained-depression.html
Quote:
‘The financial sector in the modern western world does not lend for business – business lending is almost insignificant. Its principle job is to leverage up property assets – mostly household but also commercial property – and in the process generate, when you think about it, a massive rise in real prices of this stuff, and massive increases in household debt.’


http://english.caixin.com/2013-10-14/100591569.html
Quote:
Germany and Japan have handled the internal stress from globalization better.

Their companies tend to prolong the employment of existing workers, and do not slash or hire according to short-term business conditions. This culture has the advantage of not leaving workers unemployed for a long time, which tends to degrade their working skills. Their governments provide direct incentives for prolonging employment. The German government offered subsidies for keeping workers employed during the last downturn. The Japanese government is offering a fiscal incentive to businesses that increase wages. The corporate cultures in these countries are clearly different from Anglo-Saxon countries like the United States, Britain and Australia. This is why, despite similar costs, Germany and Japan have kept a large manufacturing sector, while Anglo-Saxon economies have lost out.

Another difference is in keeping the cost of living down. Globalization has made compensation global. However, the cost of living, dominated by housing, health care and education, is still locally driven. Germany and Japan have done quite well in keeping the living costs down. While their corporate culture keeps down income inequality, government policies keep down living costs through policies against property speculation, for providing quality and government-subsidized health care and education. Anglo-Saxon countries do the opposite. While they lose out in manufacturing, their policies have encouraged financialization of their economies for temporary gains in economic prosperity. Financialization leads to inflation of non-tradable goods and services like housing, education and health care. While their workers lose out in global competition, they face escalating living costs. The social impact from the squeeze is obvious.


Globalization does not necessarily mean the death of a middle class. It is not impossible to retain high wages and low living costs. These topics are not at all on the radar in our nations. Nobody talks about wages and living costs.

The result? Average wages in the USA have decreased by 8% since the financial crisis.
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WSJ on Cowen:

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2013/10/nyt-skill-gap-among-1-year-olds-adds-to.html
http://stream.wsj.com/story/latest-headlines/SS-2-63399/SS-2-343190/
Quote:
To sum up, Mr. Cowen believes that America is dividing itself in two. At the top will be 10% to 15% of high achievers, the “Tiger Mother” kids if you like, whose self-motivation and mastery of technology will allow them to roar away into the future. Then there will be everyone else, slouching into an underfunded future of lower economic expectations, shantytowns and an endless diet of beans. I’m not kidding about the beans.

Poor Americans, writes Mr. Cowen, will have to “reshape their tastes” and live more like Mexicans. “Don’t scoff at the beans,” he says. “With an income above the national average, I receive more pleasure from the beans, which I cook with freshly ground cumin and rehydrated, pureed chilies. Good tacos and quesadillas and tamales are cheap too, and that is one reason why they are eaten so frequently in low-income countries.”


Learn to enjoy beans says the tenured libertarian. There's nothing that can be done. Imagine a Ferragamo stamping on a human face — forever.
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Wed Nov 27, 2013 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.unz.com/mwhitney/blowing-bubbles-with-paul-krugman/
Quote:
Blowing Bubbles With Paul Krugman


Long article. Low wages, not interest rates, are the cause of the major problems. It is worth a full read.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2013 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wage Slavery

40% of American workers made less than $20,000 last year. 50% of American workers made less than $30,000 last year.
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's quite sad. The American government is an open conspiracy against her own population.

Of that 20 or 30k, various oligopolies have already apportioned chunks of the wage to themselves.

Michael Hudson desrcibes here:

http://michael-hudson.com/2013/12/trade-advantage-replaced-by-rent-extraction/
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Mon Feb 03, 2014 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The housing market is a casino, again.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/02/02/warped-distorted-manipulated-flipped-housing-market/
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Sun Apr 06, 2014 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Titus wrote:
I googled Hungary and Orban:

Hungary's Orban defies foreign criticism over laws

Hungary's Orban stages assault against democracy

Hungarian premier Orban rejects constitutional criticism

Hungary's new constitution: Time to sanction Orb�n?

Constitution changes no threat to democracy, says Hungary PM

Hungarian Leader Takes Right-wing Defiance to Brussels

Viktor Orb�n's Hungarian power grab

Viktor Orban's Dismantling of Hungarian Democracy

etc.

The issue is that Hungary won't allow foreign banks to have majority control over Hungarian banks. That's #1.

Secondary to this, is that the new constitution lowers the retirement age for judges. This is an attempt to clear the judiciary of the communist and socialist appointed judges. Solid idea.

Thirdly, the judges are now only allowed to rule on "procedural grounds", meaning they can't legislate from the bench (subvert the deliberative process). Legislating from the bench is the preferred method of leftists (who are servants of internationalist usury, if they know it or not) to "move the country forward" etc. See Canada for this. A law is passed, the judge upends it and the media refers to the new law created by the judge as "the law". etc.

The next big bug up the oligarchy ass is the media law. Yes, Hungary is going after international banks and the media.

http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/07/02/hungary-failings-media-warrant-eu-action
Quote:
Ongoing problems with Hungary�s media laws include a politicized appointments process for the Media Council, the main media regulator, evidenced by the direct appointment of its president by the prime minister and the nine-year tenure of its members, which can only be ended by a supermajority of parliament. Further concerns include the requirement for �balanced� reporting, which in practice has a chilling effect on investigative journalism and leads to self-censorship.


It's no problem if the appointments are politicized. That's how it works all over Europe. The difference here is that Hungary has a right wing government, and the only potential opposition to the ruling party is an actual fascist political party, so it's clear that all future appointments will be right wing. The goal is international control over the media and not sanctity of process.


Orbán to form a rock solid government checked in power only by the farrrr right Jobbik.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/06/hungary-election-viktor-orban-fidesz-party-jobbik
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Fri Jul 04, 2014 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
Since she has recognized her error and admitted it, I believe it might prove beneficial that she was wrong. The elite could use more humility in the ranks. Geithner, Summers, and Obama together regarded themselves all too highly.


The she above is Yellen.

http://www.armstrongmywire.com/front_controller.php/news/read/category/Business/article/the_associated_press-yellen_sees_little_threat_to_financial_stability-ap

Quote:
In her remarks at a conference sponsored by the International Monetary Fund, Yellen disputed criticism that the Fed had contributed to the 2008 crisis by keeping rates too low earlier in the decade.


FFS she doesn't understand how interest rates facilitated a credit bubble.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: DC area

PostPosted: Sat Jan 24, 2015 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is uplifting (not really)

Quote:
What would incomes look like for U.S. families today if the income distribution were the same as it was in 1979?

Larry Summers recently made this really intriguing calculation in the FT.

His conclusions:

Families in the bottom 80 percent of the income distribution would be making $11,000 more per year, on average, than they're earning today.
Families in the top 1 percent would be making about $750,000 less than they're earning today.
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Tue Jan 27, 2015 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.unz.com/isteve/mortgage-meltdown-in-prince-georges-county-among-african-immigrants/

^ Wow.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: DC area

PostPosted: Fri Jan 30, 2015 4:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Speaking of mortgages, can't forget Europe! The Swiss central bank certainly helped the market there.

Central/Eastern Europe in not so great shape

The one exception? Hungary. Why?

Quote:
After all its other debt-relief measures failed, Orban’s regime in the fall of 2014 ordered all mortgage lenders in Hungary to convert their Swiss-franc loans into Hungarian forints. This high-handed measure imposed heavy losses on the banks, which Orban shrugged off. Hungary’s banking sector is heavily foreign-owned, and the ultra-nationalist leader has little sympathy for foreign business, especially financial business. Orban’s central bank chief sent a blunt message to the Austrian, Italian, and Belgian banks that dominate the local market: We have too many banks here anyway.
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From the article BB posted above:

Quote:
Ominously, one regional government has gained a huge boost of prestige as a result of the crisis: Viktor Orban’s in Hungary. After all its other debt-relief measures failed, Orban’s regime in the fall of 2014 ordered all mortgage lenders in Hungary to convert their Swiss-franc loans into Hungarian forints. This high-handed measure imposed heavy losses on the banks, which Orban shrugged off. Hungary’s banking sector is heavily foreign-owned, and the ultra-nationalist leader has little sympathy for foreign business, especially financial business. Orban’s central bank chief sent a blunt message to the Austrian, Italian, and Belgian banks that dominate the local market: We have too many banks here anyway. Orban explicitly rejects the idea of “liberal democracy,” identifying Russia, Turkey, and China as more successful models for ambitious nations. After the events of January, his example may look more creditable to Europeans in search of escape from seemingly unending financial and economic crisis.


Ok note that Frum (the Jewish guy who wrote "Axis of Evil" to convince Americans to fight an enemy of Zion) calls him an "ultra nationalist". Orban is not. Jobbik is, and they are the opposition. Orban is most similar to de Gaulle, who was not a radical.

However, what Orban has done has objectively made his country more resilient. This is why Frum slanders him. The internationalist, usury pushing propagandists want to ensure that no nation is free from the Vampire Squid, wrapped around the face of humanity.

Quote:
Everywhere in Europe, traditional modes of leadership and established institutions are unraveling. Last weekend, Greece elected a government that rejects EU-imposed austerity (a neo-Nazi party finished third). Marine Le Pen of the far-right, anti-EU National Front leads the polls in French presidential matchups. If the polls are accurate, almost half of all Italian voters support parties that are skeptical of or outright opposed to the European Union.


The non-radical mainstream in Europe is ruining entire nations for the sake of banks. Radical politics, as defined by Frum, is exactly what is needed.

Quote:
The last thing Europe needs is one more shove toward the ideological extremes. But thanks to its mortgage bankers, and the unintended consequences of Swiss monetary policy, it may have just received another.


The proper answer is "*beep* you" and nationalism.

The Atlantic is a piece of shit.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: DC area

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Titus wrote:
From the article BB posted above:

Quote:
Ominously, one regional government has gained a huge boost of prestige as a result of the crisis: Viktor Orban’s in Hungary. After all its other debt-relief measures failed, Orban’s regime in the fall of 2014 ordered all mortgage lenders in Hungary to convert their Swiss-franc loans into Hungarian forints. This high-handed measure imposed heavy losses on the banks, which Orban shrugged off. Hungary’s banking sector is heavily foreign-owned, and the ultra-nationalist leader has little sympathy for foreign business, especially financial business. Orban’s central bank chief sent a blunt message to the Austrian, Italian, and Belgian banks that dominate the local market: We have too many banks here anyway. Orban explicitly rejects the idea of “liberal democracy,” identifying Russia, Turkey, and China as more successful models for ambitious nations. After the events of January, his example may look more creditable to Europeans in search of escape from seemingly unending financial and economic crisis.


Ok note that Frum (the Jewish guy who wrote "Axis of Evil" to convince Americans to fight an enemy of Zion) calls him an "ultra nationalist". Orban is not. Jobbik is, and they are the opposition. Orban is most similar to de Gaulle, who was not a radical.

However, what Orban has done has objectively made his country more resilient. This is why Frum slanders him. The internationalist, usury pushing propagandists want to ensure that no nation is free from the Vampire Squid, wrapped around the face of humanity.

Quote:
Everywhere in Europe, traditional modes of leadership and established institutions are unraveling. Last weekend, Greece elected a government that rejects EU-imposed austerity (a neo-Nazi party finished third). Marine Le Pen of the far-right, anti-EU National Front leads the polls in French presidential matchups. If the polls are accurate, almost half of all Italian voters support parties that are skeptical of or outright opposed to the European Union.


The non-radical mainstream in Europe is ruining entire nations for the sake of banks. Radical politics, as defined by Frum, is exactly what is needed.

Quote:
The last thing Europe needs is one more shove toward the ideological extremes. But thanks to its mortgage bankers, and the unintended consequences of Swiss monetary policy, it may have just received another.


The proper answer is "*beep* you" and nationalism.

The Atlantic is a piece of shit.


One reason I posted that article is I was amused that Frum made Orban sound like the smartest leader in the EU who actually leads! My previous knowledge of Orban was just superficial stuff (basically just hearing he was ultra-nationalist, blah blah blah). I don't think Frum intended to do that at all.
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Titus



Joined: 19 May 2012

PostPosted: Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you see the word 'regime' used instead of 'government' by someone like Frum you know that State is working to foment a color revolution.

BB if you read up in this thread (on this page) and the preceding page, you can see some examples posted by me of why Orban has caught the attention of the oligarchy. He targeted communists in the judiciary, removed the "living document" concept re: constitution, targeted foreign owned media and worked to get political control over the central bank. Each and every one of the above targets an internationalist means of control over sovereign states.
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