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No Moore

 
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:01 am    Post subject: No Moore Reply with quote

https://www.npr.org/2017/12/12/570291123/will-it-be-moore-or-jones-polls-are-closed-in-divisive-alabama-senate-election

Quote:
Democrat Doug Jones has won the Alabama Senate special election, a victory that was a stunning upset in a deeply red state that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump. The president ... had backed Republican Roy Moore despite multiple accusations of sexual misconduct and assault ...


Trump's twitter congratulations included a prevarication about write-ins being a "very big factor" . . . when they were fewer than 2% of the vote tally.

Quote:
It's the first major electoral blow to Trump since his own upset victory just over a year ago, giving Democrats a special election win after several near misses. Democrats were victorious in November in the Virginia and New Jersey governors' races, but the win in such a red state that Trump won by almost 30 points is a political earthquake heading into the 2018 midterm elections.


This was the second national special election since the Charlottesville terrorist attack. African-American turn-out seems as if it could have ranged as high as 28% of the population, with 17% composed of African-American women.

It may be instructive to look at the county-by-county results:

https://www.politico.com/interactives/elections/2017/alabama/special-election/dec-12/?lo=ap_a1

All but three counties swung +10 to +38 points towards Democrats in comparison to the general Presidential election. Jefferson County swung 31 points Democratic with over 215,000 votes cast.

Interestingly, someone hedged his bets, campaigning in support of Moore, but in Florida:

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/13/alabama-senate-jones-moore-takeaways-294163

Quote:
Ignoring pleas from McConnell and other senior Republicans, Trump jumped in for Moore. Just days before the election, he went to the Florida Panhandle, just outside the Alabama state line, to campaign for Moore. He also cut a robo-call for the candidate and he tweeted his support.


This makes Trump a two-time loser for this race. Sad!

Doug Jones is a civil rights attorney with bona fide accomplishments (i.e., the opposite of his seat's predecessor); and otherwise moderate, but not a neo-liberal squish. Also, no women have come forward to accuse him of molesting them when they were under the age of 18.

http://www.newsweek.com/who-doug-jones-kkk-fighting-democrat-attorney-roy-moore-alabama-senate-672255

The only anomalous position he holds supports an increase in Federal military spending; although this position may have been necessary for him to get elected in Alabama.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to say I was pleasantly surprised and happy my cynicism was proven wrong!
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Re-route from the Russia investigation thread:

Rteacher wrote:
the main thing is that Democrats regain control of Congress in 2018 - and at this point (ten months out) it's looking good ... https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/21/polls-show-democrats-with-sizeable-advantage-for-2018-midterms-310146


Do not rely on Politico's Morning Consult poll alone. Look at an aggregate of the Congressional generic ballot polling. This indicates a 14-point advantage for Democrats. This is a large difference historically.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The combination of special election results indicates a +16 point advantage for Democrats from 2016 elections and 2012 elections,* whether you exclude the two outliers (Utah and Alabama) or not.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/

Both the Congressional generic ballot and special election results remain fairly predictive from this point in the year preceding the mid-terms.

*The partisan lean compares the district’s or state’s vote in the last two presidential elections to the nation’s, with the 2016 election weighted 75 percent and the 2012 election weighted 25 percent.

Also, Donald Trump. He will drive voters to the polls to vote against his swamp creatures.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/28/doug-jones-alabama-senate-certified-319601

Quote:
The state of Alabama on Thursday certified Democrat Doug Jones as the winner of this month’s special Senate election after a judge denied Republican Roy Moore’s effort to halt the process via a last-ditch lawsuit charging widespread voter fraud.

Jones won the election with 673,896 votes, or just under 50 percent of the total votes cast in the Dec. 12 special election for the seat vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, according to official results released Thursday. Moore received 651,972 votes, or 48.3 percent. The remaining 22,852 voters wrote in other candidates.


This is only news because Roy Moore has refused to concede.
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