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Unification on the Horizon?
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When will we see unification?
1 year or less.
4%
 4%  [ 1 ]
1-2 years.
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
3-7 years.
8%
 8%  [ 2 ]
Next decade.
13%
 13%  [ 3 ]
In our life times.
56%
 56%  [ 13 ]
Never.
17%
 17%  [ 4 ]
Total Votes : 23

Author Message
Skarp



Joined: 22 Aug 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2003 2:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's tragic to see too separate countries with basically the same people.

How far can we make comparison with East/West Germany?

Who is forcing North Korea to stay at dagger's drawn with the South? Can the South afford the cost of absorbing the North into the economy?

What is the American foreign policy angle? How does it serve their interests to keep the countries apart?

Anyway - it would be good to see, but South Korea would probably pay a price in Won for reunification.


I would guess within 20 years or less.
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Trinny



Joined: 01 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2003 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skarp wrote:
What is the American foreign policy angle? How does it serve their interests to keep the countries apart?.


North Korea is a rogue state, but the US government have maintained containment policy (passive-aggressive) towards North kroea.

I don't see any US interests being served by keeping two Koreas apart.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2003 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My estimate of the situation is that unification will happen the day China feels assured that United Korea will be securely under its thumb, and not a day sooner. Or later.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2003 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand wrote:
Quote:
Where North Koreans have restricted access to exit North Korea, but South Koreans and probably foreigners having unrestricted access to the whole peninsula


So, the North plays Palestine to the South's Israel? Yeah, that'd really sell in Pyongyang!


This is assuming that the North collapses. Unification is gonna' occur forcefully, either through a collapse or an invasion. I think the most probable scenerio is North Korea collapsing through a coup organized by disgruntled generals. It also will probably occur at the worst time, maybe in the middle of a presidential election in the south, or during a big event the south is hosting (eg Olympics, World Cup).
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matthews_world



Joined: 15 Feb 2003
Location: Coming to a norae-bang near you!

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2003 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
My estimate of the situation is that unification will happen the day China feels assured that United Korea will be securely under its thumb, and not a day sooner. Or later.


Yea, but they're gonna have to deal with the U.S. on that one.


crazylemongirl wrote:
Korea will require heaps of aid, because they don't have the social infrastructure to cope with an extra 20 million mouths to feed/kids to education/people to find jobs etc.


The first thing N Korea could offer in exchange for such aid is their energy resources from their nuclear power plant.

In fact, that plant could produce cheap energy for all of Korea after unification. That would be sweet and could even reduce pollution.

The area of North Korea could be turned into a manufacturing hub.


Skarp wrote:
Anyway - it would be good to see, but South Korea would probably pay a price in Won for reunification.


Good point. Efforts will be made to keep the won at it's current or lower levels, it's gonna decrease in value for a short period of time.



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ulsanchris



Joined: 19 Jun 2003
Location: take a wild guess

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2003 6:43 pm    Post subject: hmm Reply with quote

I once heard that reunification or rather the cost to bring N. Korea up to S. Korean standards would cost 1.3 trillion US dollars. There is no way that S. Korea could afford to pay this alone. I'm sure a bunch of countries would be willing to throw in a few billion here and there but there is still a lot of money lacking. The States and China would be major donars but that still wouldn't be enough.
I think that reunitfication will happen one day but how it happens will be important. Assuming it happens in a peacefull way, will the N. Koreans (who will be wanting to have everything the S. koreans have) be patient with a slow reunification process that would limit the impact on the S. Korean economy or will the demand a qucik fix. I would guess that would want a quick fix and then things would turn pretty ugly.
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gomurr



Joined: 04 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Aug 27, 2003 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are only 3 ways to unify as things stand now.
1) Start a war and begin the whole bloody process over again. Let's finish it this time.

2) Assasinate Kim, Jong-il and the male members of his family. No one else holds as much power or has the pull that they have.

3) Wait for the Korean people in the North to rise up and finally overthrow the regime.

Other than that it's going to take another 50 years.
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