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Why doesn't the USA just leave South Korea?
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Adventurer



Joined: 28 Jan 2006

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajgeddes wrote:
ytuque wrote:
If the US pulled out of Korea, the North Koreans could take over without much of a fight. The stock market of every industrialized country would crash. There is a lot at risk.


Haha, yeah right. The South Korean military is pretty much as modern as any military in the world and after the initial shock would would be able to rip apart the Norks.


Even if South Korea is modern, it doesn't mean they would win a war with North Korea. The North Koreans in 1950 fought very hard, and the South did not. So if the North Koreans have decent enough weapons and the South Koreans don't fight hard enough, they could fall. The South Vietnamese Army had a lot of American weapons, but they couldn't hold their lines and easily fell when the US left. I am not so confident the South Koreans would be able to rip up the North Koreans' lines. However, we don't know how committed the North Korean military is to a war. There are too many unknowns. We are going based on 1950 and times have changed.
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Lekker



Joined: 09 Feb 2008
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not a veteran, don't know much about warfare, but here it's mandatory to serve and the North, from my sources, outnumbers the south. Plus, how many people are starving up there. What do they get if they join? Is it even mandatory to serve in the military up there?

North Korea is approximately the size of PA, South Korea is approximately the size of Wisconsin, not that that has anything do do with it.

Sometimes I get pissed and question why the US is here, and other times I wonder what would happen if the US pulled out. It wouldn't be a good transition for Korea. Give them about five years without the US presence. See what happens.

I also wonder how much longer the US can afford to keep a presence here, Germany, and elsewhere. Whatever, I'm not in the military, if shit goes down, I'm a make like Iron Maiden and run to the hills, southward.
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poet13



Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Location: Just over there....throwing lemons.

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"If the US pulled out of Korea, the North Koreans could take over without much of a fight."

Even with the US here, the Norks could get as far south as Daegu. Yes, the Korean military is as modern as any, but with tens of thousands of rockets GPS targeted at every strategic target, and one of the biggest, most highly trained and disciplined armies in the world, North Korea could be in Pyeongtaek before they slowed down. The north korean civilian population might be starving, but their military is second to none. They might not have the equipment that the US and S Korea has, but they are hard, hard people. The US battle plan for the pennisula used to be (a few yearas ago), "Hold busan and area, take the pennisula back after.) The korean war all over again.


All those little american bases, Liberty Bell, Greaves, Page, Casey, Hovey are just speed bumps.
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ytuque



Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lekker wrote:
ytuque wrote:
If the US pulled out of Korea, the North Koreans could take over without much of a fight. The stock market of every industrialized country would crash. There is a lot at risk.


You are right about the North coming in like the Stay Puff Marshmallow Man but how do you know stock markets in EVERY industrialized nation would crash?


Let's see, how about this scenario... S. Korea is the world's 13 largest economy and would disappear in case of a takeover by the North.
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bobranger



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Location: masan

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The US does a lot of electronic surveillance of North Korea and China. It protects business interests. It�s a cash cow for skimming tax payers� money. The military will not leave until it is forced out.
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endo



Joined: 14 Mar 2004
Location: Seoul...my home

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 2:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bobranger wrote:
It�s a cash cow for skimming tax payers� money.


I don't understand this point. Can you elaborate?
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Lekker



Joined: 09 Feb 2008
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 3:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ytuque wrote:
Lekker wrote:
ytuque wrote:
If the US pulled out of Korea, the North Koreans could take over without much of a fight. The stock market of every industrialized country would crash. There is a lot at risk.


You are right about the North coming in like the Stay Puff Marshmallow Man but how do you know stock markets in EVERY industrialized nation would crash?


Let's see, how about this scenario... S. Korea is the world's 13 largest economy and would disappear in case of a takeover by the North.


Apparently the Netherlands has the 14th largest economy, so if South Korea was out of commission, then the Netherlands would step up a notch? Who cares anyway, if it goes down, every country will be making some readjustments, no big deal, life goes on, just it will have to go on without Samsung and LG, but again, life goes on.
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bobranger



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Location: masan

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Endo:
Let me clarify. Overseas military expenses are easily overlooked nor scrutinized. On foreign soil, military and contractors� deals can be made without oversight, often with foreign companies in countries where bribes are a routine part of doing business. There is a skim (to embezzle some of the proceeds from a business) to those who approve the deal. Yet to monitor those billions in contracts, just fewer than 100 civilian agents are assigned to the Army Criminal Investigation Command's procurement fraud office. These investigators tend to concentrate on state side matters. Take my opinion with a grain of salt. I�ve done some informal research and that�s all it is. Food for thought I suppose.
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Young FRANKenstein



Joined: 02 Oct 2006
Location: Castle Frankenstein (that's FRONKensteen)

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pkang0202 wrote:
It would allow China to be more aggressive in *beep* handling of Taiwan.

OT, but I didn't realize just how much anti-Taiwan propoganda China threw at its citizens. A co-worker mentioned recently, during a discussion of other countries, had a Chinese student in his class steadfastedly REFUSE to say or write the word "Taiwan". He reasoned that if he didn't recognize it as a country, he doesn't have to use the word.
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Kimchi Cha Cha



Joined: 15 May 2003
Location: was Suncheon, now Brisbane

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 6:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Three excellent blog entries today marking the sixth anniversary of the tragic accident involving two schoolgirls killed by a US tank on a narrow country road and the subsequent hate-fest it morphed into as media outlets and NGOs manipulated the tragedy for their own ends.

Required reading for all ex-pats, particularly Americans.

Brian in Jeollanam-do's entry

GI Korea's entry

The Metropolitician's entry
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

poet13 wrote:
"If the US pulled out of Korea, the North Koreans could take over without much of a fight."

Even with the US here, the Norks could get as far south as Daegu. Yes, the Korean military is as modern as any, but with tens of thousands of rockets GPS targeted at every strategic target, and one of the biggest, most highly trained and disciplined armies in the world, North Korea could be in Pyeongtaek before they slowed down. The north korean civilian population might be starving, but their military is second to none. They might not have the equipment that the US and S Korea has, but they are hard, hard people. The US battle plan for the pennisula used to be (a few yearas ago), "Hold busan and area, take the pennisula back after.) The korean war all over again.


All those little american bases, Liberty Bell, Greaves, Page, Casey, Hovey are just speed bumps.

Yeah right. The US navy could just send in one super carrier (out of 8 or so) and use it to utterly obliterate the entire country. It's just no contest; the US would have complete air superiority and could render NK heap of rubble in mere days, not unlike what happened to Iraq. Really. Aside from having no supply line, the nork army would just get bombed and torn to shreds from every which way and scattered.
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aka Dave



Joined: 02 May 2008
Location: Down by the river

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Korea sent soldiers to Afghanistan and Iraq. Now, I think the mad cow thing is as crazy as the next guy. But Korea is acutally one of the most reliable allies we've had in our entire history. Korea sent soldiers to Vietnam, of all places.

At this moment in American history, we need to be building alliances not tearing them down as Bush has done. I personally believe American beef is safe.

I also belive America should re-negotiate the beef agreement in such a way that's it's accecptable to Koreans. The alliance is more important than the hamburgers.
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Gwangjuboy



Joined: 08 Jul 2003
Location: England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajgeddes wrote:

Haha, yeah right. The South Korean military is pretty much as modern as any military in the world and after the initial shock would would be able to rip apart the Norks.


You completely ignore the fighting spirit of the North Koreans. They are much harder than their southern counterparts in just about every way imaginable. They are much hungrier for a conflict too. With all the material wealth the floppy haired southern men have been exposed to, not to mention a decade of concilatory policies to their northern brethren, they are much less inclined to fight.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ytuque wrote:
Lekker wrote:
ytuque wrote:
If the US pulled out of Korea, the North Koreans could take over without much of a fight. The stock market of every industrialized country would crash. There is a lot at risk.


You are right about the North coming in like the Stay Puff Marshmallow Man but how do you know stock markets in EVERY industrialized nation would crash?


Let's see, how about this scenario... S. Korea is the world's 13 largest economy and would disappear in case of a takeover by the North.

It likely wouldn't have much effect at all. SK is an exporter mainly, and the slack would be easily picked up by Japan and China. As a market it is a mere blip in the world. Foreign investment lost would not amount to anything serious. It really wouldn't have much effect, except maybe in Asia.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Jun 13, 2008 7:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gwangjuboy wrote:
ajgeddes wrote:

Haha, yeah right. The South Korean military is pretty much as modern as any military in the world and after the initial shock would would be able to rip apart the Norks.


You completely ignore the fighting spirit of the North Koreans. They are much harder than their southern counterparts in just about every way imaginable. They are much hungrier for a conflict too. With all the material wealth the floppy haired southern men have been exposed to, not to mention a decade of concilatory policies to their northern brethren, they are much less inclined to fight.

It doesn't matter. Maybe if we invaded the north in order to occupy it indefinitely we'd have to contend with the same kind of guerrilla tactics as elsewhere, and that could be challenging (though maybe not if you just let the south take care of it after we bombed the f-ck out of it). But in any pitched battles anywhere the norks would get decimated, just like shooting fish in a barrel. Three words: complete air superiority.
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