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The Great China Hype Thread
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 2:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dont really care about you or educating you. If I had a nickel for every "basket weaver' hakwon monkey who thinks they are an expert on world affairs because they were actually forced to take a class in poli sci at a third rate university to get their useless degree , well I would not bet that enormous sum of money on the Chinese economy.

But please tell us the reasons that you think the Chinese economy is not in bad shape and state why the Chinese housing crisis is different and not as dire as what the U.S. experienced?
Border wars with India, Russia korea, Taiwan, Vietnam. invasion of Tibet, seizing a large chunk of Kyrgstan. This is not counting the arguments and naval incididents, with Japan, South korea , the Phillipines and the incursion by Chinese forces into the mekong river, and i suppose we should mention the support for the North Korean nuke program and the Norks threats against South Korea. .

Good luck buddy. Really want to read your thinking on the current state of the Chinese economy.
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The Sultan of Seoul



Joined: 17 Apr 2012
Location: right... behind.. YOU

PostPosted: Sat Apr 28, 2012 3:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:

The U.K. I really dont care about it one way or another. I just like to mess with some of the sillier posters on here.


Maybe it's time for you to start caring, who knows - you might like it!

You are now cordially invited!

http://www.visitbritain.com/
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Mon Apr 30, 2012 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks sultan. Good luck with the olmpics.
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Tue May 01, 2012 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Dont really care about you or educating you. If I had a nickel for every "basket weaver' hakwon monkey who thinks they are an expert on world affairs because they were actually forced to take a class in poli sci at a third rate university to get their useless degree , well I would not bet that enormous sum of money on the Chinese economy.


Fair enough. Don't blather on about your 11 years of matrimony, and I won't tell you about my 20th century experience with hagwons and bushibans. You are the one who introduced it and now doesn't wanna go there. Let's leave it at that.

Quote:
But please tell us the reasons that you think the Chinese economy is not in bad shape and state why the Chinese housing crisis is different and not as dire as what the U.S. experienced?


I think I already have, but in a nutshell: Chinese property owners are more focused on long-term profit than short-term. That's based on my own experience and the fact that, in China, if you buy/rent a new property, you're essentially given a hull to develop. You're basically given a concrete cubicle to develop as you see fit. The landlord is renting you space, or you're buying space. Problem with the phone line? Don't call the landlord. It's his space, not his trappings.

The difference between the housing bubbles is, fundamentally, that Americans expect to own a home, which is not the case in China. This was coupled with an age-old belief that real estate can only appreciate. This was coupled with banks rating loans on real estate improperly.

In the China housing bubble, the state has been funding real estate growth projects beyond the capacity to fill them. China's economy, unhindered by things like deficit spending, can be hurt by the housing bubble, but there is no reason to see that as leading to a recession in China.

Now, note that Kuros is suddenly mum on the subject. He can fling poo at me, but you have the luxury of being some kind of Ronald Reagan figure. Either way, see the above if anyone wants to suggest I'm not arguing in good faith.

Now now, Rollo

Quote:
Border wars with India, Russia korea, Taiwan, Vietnam. invasion of Tibet, seizing a large chunk of Kyrgstan. This is not counting the arguments and naval incididents, with Japan, South korea , the Phillipines and the incursion by Chinese forces into the mekong river, and i suppose we should mention the support for the North Korean nuke program and the Norks threats against South Korea. .


AIGO! BORDER WARS!!!

I've given you ample opportunity to support the imminence of any war on China's borders. Your response has been an unsupported claim that Chinese troops fired on border guards in Nepal. Asked repeatedly for evidence, it appears you pulled that incident out of your behind, Mr 11 years of study.

China's border issues amount to the Tokdo debacle.

They ARE an issue, but they're as likely to turn into a war as Tokdo.
Quote:

Good luck buddy. Really want to read your thinking on the current state of the Chinese economy.


Yeah, good luck...Tootle on about cadre in range rovers, but you have yet to provide any of your own substantial empirical provable/unprovable support for things you say.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed May 02, 2012 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are saying that Chinese people do not want to own homes. YOu are saying that no chinese person thinks that their investment will appreciate.

City and provincial debt which is estimated at around 780 billion dollars and most of the borrowing was done to invest in real estate.

Mostly i do not understand your answer, which is incorrect when you say there is no debt ,and seems to not understand that real estate investments are about 40% of the economy when you factor in the jobs created by the construction o housing

Mostly you seem to want to engage in personal attacks. here you go try answering the question about the Chinese economy with something besides an error filled answer about how real estate is sold and about debt by government in China.

I am not sure about the Chinese economy falling into recession but i am fairly certain that double digit growth is over and forsee a long period when growth is 2 to 3 percent a year. Not enough to keep up with population or lift the several hundred million direly poor out of poverty.
The political implications are obvious.
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Thu May 03, 2012 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
You are saying that Chinese people do not want to own homes. YOu are saying that no chinese person thinks that their investment will appreciate.


Not sure where you're getting that from, but at one moment, I dont know that ppl can't own property and the next your wife does. So sort that out yourself.

Quote:
City and provincial debt which is estimated at around 780 billion dollars and most of the borrowing was done to invest in real estate.


Yes, so 780 billion in real estate. Did I just acknowledge that? Yes, I did.

Now, let's ponder this:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

15 trillion dollars, dude.

Let me let you out of your claims: Based on your own analysis, you might try to equate China's bubble with the US's.

I'm not really sure where that is in terms of catastrophe alone and of itself, and I've already explained why I don't think it will hit the way it does by western assumptions that it will be the same.

BUT

Being hit with that while you're 780 billion in debt as opposed to 13 trillion is a huge, definitive, undeniable difference.

But you say they're of the same magnitude. Well, rollo, time to back up your claims.

Based on what?

Mostly, you seem to wanna talk about me and not back up your claims.

Rather than attack you, I've offered you wagers on your own claims. You seem reluctant to put your money where your mouth is.
Quote:


I am not sure about the Chinese economy falling into recession but i am fairly certain that double digit growth is over and forsee a long period when growth is 2 to 3 percent a year.


Yet a minute ago I was supposed to explain why the housing bubble will not be the same as the US.

Tianjin (independent province) has 30% growth. This backs up my claim that one bubble doesn't cover the country.

But hey the UK is a "second-rate" country. No? Tell me about my bias. :O
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sat May 05, 2012 3:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

statistics in China as several posters have pointed out are sketchy. I would view the 30% growth number with suspision.

An example when the Wenzhou economy crashed last year they were still announcing figures showing growth in factories production even though the factories had been shut for some time.

Remember the 780 billion debt is just for city and provincial governments did not include banks, individuae , companies, then we are talking about real money, maybe four trillion or so.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue May 08, 2012 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

China's Biggest Challenge: Basic Governance

Quote:
The Bo Xilai case has also shone a light on the effectiveness -- or lack thereof -- of China's leadership. In recent times, some Western analysts who wished for a more orderly politics than that found in their own capitals have glimpsed it in Beijing.

China has moved adroitly to protect its environment, reduce pollution, and invest in renewable energy, they note, in contrast to the policy paralysis in Washington. They even praise the long-termism of China's Five Year Plans compared to the short-termism of Western politics.

China's senior leaders, some observers conclude, are freer than Western politicians to pursue their country's national interest and maximise its national power.

There is some truth to this. But the larger truth, exposed by Bo Xilai, is that politics in China are still a vicious and occasionally deadly game. Paranoia and intrigue stalk the leadership. Even the president of China, Hu Jintao, is spied on by his rivals.

The milieu within Zhongnanhai, the Chinese leadership compound, is probably less like the collective of brilliant technocrats its admirers imagine and more like The Hunger Games. This is not a promising environment for steady and far-sighted leadership.


Any Chinese will tell you the same thing, as long as you give them the right prompt; i.e. why hasn't China become a democracy yet?
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2012 6:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Soufun Holdings group reported that residential housing sales dropped 92% this week as compared to last week in China's 20 largest cities. There are signs this being one of them that credit has all but dried up.

India announced last week they were testing a missle that could hit Beijing. China of coursed denounced this and bulked up forces on the Indian border.
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No_hite_pls



Joined: 05 Mar 2007
Location: Don't hate me because I'm right

PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2012 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like how Rollo says that Nowhere Man engages in personal attacks

Quote:
Mostly you seem to want to engage in personal attacks.



When Rollo was the poster making personal attacks on Nowhere man.

Quote:
Dont really care about you or educating you. If I had a nickel for every "basket weaver' hakwon monkey who thinks they are an expert on world affairs because they were actually forced to take a class in poli sci at a third rate university to get their useless degree , well I would not bet that enormous sum of money on the Chinese economy


Man do I hate hypocrisy. Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes Rolling Eyes
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is about China, not Rollo and his stalkers.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The purge is spreading. Now theyre after two generals who were connected to Bo Xilai. So the new regime is cleaning house and sending a message that they mean to reform the economy and loosen up on civil rights. Of course there will be massive resistance from the old line bosses' who got rich .on low wage/ high export economy. A real slugfest is brewing. The downward spral of the economy continues and it may be too late for reform.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2012 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hu is doubling down. And why not? Bo Xilai was one of Jiang Zemin's faction.

He gets to consolidate power, consensus politics gets weaker, an extreme Leftist gets purged, and Jiang Zemin and his Shanghai clique enervates. Good for China, good for the world.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 2:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes , probably a more liberal China, with more attention to human rights. Less state control of economy.

How deep this purge goes is the question. The rightest will push back. The Guandong faction seems to be gaining power and they tend to be more capitalistic than Maoist. Interesting Times!!!!
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sat May 19, 2012 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

China is 1 for 3 in foreign affairs this month.

First off, Chen Guangcheng, barefoot lawyer and defender of the people, was allowed to come study in the US. The initially awkward, and then later very deft way this was handled shows Hu Jintao seems to have finally wrestled consensus politics and united the mandarins.

But then China stumbled when it kicked out Al Jazeera journalist Melissa Chan. China stepped back about fourteen years in time when it petulantly expelled a foreign journalist. Curiously, in a strong connection with Chen Guangcheng, we see that Chan reported on cruel enforcement of the one-child policy, policy which Chinese provincial and municipal governments have a great deal of flexibility in interpreting.

Quote:
In March, she wrote about a distraught mother seeking a daughter who had been forcibly sterilized and put in an illegal "black jail" for violating China's one-child policy.


Oh, and she tweeted about CCP paranoia. Oh, Melissa, so silly! The CCP doesn't care what you report!

Lastly, speaking of tweets, we have CCTV stooge Yang Rui revealing his hidden xenophobe.

Quote:
The Public Security Bureau wants to clean out the foreign trash: To arrest foreign thugs and protect innocent girls, they need to concentrate on the disaster zones in [student district] Wudaokou and [drinking district] Sanlitun. Cut off the foreign snake heads. People who can't find jobs in the U.S. and Europe come to China to grab our money, engage in human trafficking and spread deceitful lies to encourage emigration. Foreign spies seek out Chinese girls to mask their espionage and pretend to be tourists while compiling maps and GPS data for Japan, Korea and the West. We kicked out that foreign bitch and closed Al-Jazeera's Beijing bureau. We should shut up those who demonize China and send them packing.


Yes, very good move, China. The international press responds very well to threats and persecution. I'm sure the China Hands all over the world will come clamoring to your defense, just as the putative worldly Yang Rui has rushed to ours.
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