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A Korean's viewpoint
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2013 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, no way Russia and China ever clash, the big battles in the 70's along the Amur river were just figments of the imagination and the soviets moving nukes into Siberia, that never happened.

What is more likely is that if the U.S. leaves S.k. first a massive drop in confidence in the markets toward south Korea. South Korea gradually becomes a puppet of China. Slowly absorbed into the chinese sphere.

No chance of war if you totally ignore history and geography and rely on the rather fantastic idea that all states act rationally 100% of the time.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Yes, no way Russia and China ever clash, the big battles in the 70's along the Amur river were just figments of the imagination and the soviets moving nukes into Siberia, that never happened.


Not to turn this into another Steelrails v. Rollo on China (especially cuz rollo is rather sane when it comes to anything non-Chinese conquering), but I think the fact that those clashes didn't turn into all out war suggests that both sides didn't have the will to match the rhetoric and realized there wasn't much to be gained from war.

Quote:
What is more likely is that if the U.S. leaves S.k. first a massive drop in confidence in the markets toward south Korea. South Korea gradually becomes a puppet of China. Slowly absorbed into the chinese sphere.


Well it all depends on how bullish investors are towards China at the time. Hong Kong and even Taiwan have been getting closer to China and haven't seen their markets collapse.
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TheUrbanMyth



Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired

PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2013 6:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

javis wrote:
World Traveler wrote:
TheUrbanMyth wrote:
aussieb wrote:
The Norks do have a couple of nukes ... more than makes up for other antiquated weaponry.


But they don't have a delivery system. Nukes are worthless unless you can get them over to the enemy side. All they have are bombers and any bombers taking off, would be detected and shot down before it reaches the border.

They do now:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?smid=tw-bna

Also, I just saw this on cnn.com:
Quote:
it takes only three minutes for a North Korean plane to reach Seoul, and under a minute for artillery shells to hit.

How would all the planes (North Korea has a huge airforce) be detected, tracked, and shot down in such a short amount of time?

They wouldn't just take off all at once like a swarm of bees. There are a limited number of airfields, and each has a limited capacity for planes taking off. It's like when everybody gets off the subway at a major transfer station and crowd the platform, but still have to stand in line to in up the escalator. On top of that, a plane has to be fueled up, preflighted, taxied to the runway before it can take off, and then it has to exit the airfield pattern and form up with it's wing men. Then it can finally turn south to go turn Seoul into a sea of fire.
So, if you consider all that, it's really not as simple as going three minutes south as the crow flies, and there would be plenty of time for ROK and US forces to react to a North Korean air incursion.



Agreed.

It should also be pointed out that the North doesn't have enough aircraft fuel to train its pilots properly...but suddenly they have enough to send their entire airforce over?
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