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Is Romney (Rmoney) toast?
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sirius black



Joined: 04 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
sirius black wrote:
The media, the RNC and the Dems know the race is pretty much over. Unless something significant happens.
The media tries to paint a more even race so people will watch. They keep saying national pollls show this and that and its neck and neck.


Cue the NYTimes. (I can access freely through twitter feed, oddly enough).

Quote:
Poll Shows Economic Fears Undercutting Obama Support

Declining confidence in the nation’s economic prospects appears to be the most powerful force influencing voters as the presidential election gears up, undercutting key areas of support for President Obama and helping give his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, an advantage on the question of who would better handle the nation’s economic challenges, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Despite months of negative advertising from Mr. Obama and his Democratic allies seeking to define Mr. Romney as out of touch with the middle class and representative of wealthy interests, the poll shows little evidence of any substantial nationwide shift in attitudes about Mr. Romney.

But with job growth tailing off since spring and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, wondering aloud whether the labor market is “stuck in the mud,” the poll showed a significant shift in opinion about Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 39 percent now saying they approved and 55 percent saying they disapproved.

In the Times/CBS poll in April, when the economy seemed to be gaining momentum, 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.


According to Nate Silver, economic indicators form only one of three pillars of electoral prediction. The first are the nat'l polls themselves, you know, like the ones showing Obama far more likeable than Romney. The third is the ideological disposition of the challenger. Now, there are no polls for this one, but I'll go ahead and congratulate Obama: 2 out of 3 ain't bad!


Those links and articles make for interesting reading but not sure how that translate to anything other than an Obama win right now?

National polls mean nothing. Their only purpose is to give the illusion that its a close race.

Obama leads in just about all the key swing states. North Carolina is a minor one. Dems usually lose that state anyway. Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the only states that really matter. Even Virginia is gravy. Obama leads in about 4 of the 5 biggest swing states. He's technically behind in Florida but its a statistical dead heat so he could win that state. Immigrants like him in that state over Romney and Jewish voters aren't his niche but they aren't thrilled about Romney as well being a Mormon.

40 of the 50 states are decided. Roughly 10 aren't. Obama leads in the vast majority of those 10 or so states. Simple math really. Unless something changes. Its Obama right now fairly easily. He won't get 440 electoral votes but he'll get well over 300 as it stands and all he needs is 270.
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northway



Joined: 05 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 4:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, it looks somewhat positive for Obama right now, but I don't think you can rely on tho polls and say he's got it in the bag:

1) GOTV matters, and the GOP electorate is a lot more engaged in this election than the Democratic one is, just as we saw in 2010.

2) Many of those polls include all voters rather than likely voters; things tighten up once you weed out the non-voters.

3) Voter ID requirements could be a serious problem this time around. 9% of Pennsylvania's registered voters lack a valid photo ID, and most of those individuals are generally in demographic groups that support Democrats.

4) While Obama is consistently leading in most of the swing states, his consistent lead is generally within the margin of error, and thus not to be taken for granted.

5) The money (dis)advantage. Romney can bury Obama in spending. He has such a huge money advantage that he can basically air whatever he wants without fear of response from the Obama camp. This is shaping up to be a very negative campaign, and Romney has the money to overwhelm Obama on the money side. As he can't spend that money until after the convention, the polls you see now are basically the result of Obama having unfettered access to the airwaves with little possible response from Romney, as he's broke until he gets access to his post-convention money pile.

Anyone that is calling this already is getting way ahead of themselves.
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is an awesome analysis, northway. We haven't even really seen the Republican platform yet, so current polls are going entirely on name recognition and personal sentiment.

Once Obama and Romney start slinging mud and making promises... then the electorate will definitley start to skew one way or the other. Personally, I think Obama has it unless Rmoney does something crazy. Obama can promise to buy the world for the taxpayers and his base wont worry about the budget deficit. Rmoney can't do that without alienating the conservatives who realize how f*cked America is because of its debt and obligations.
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northway



Joined: 05 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 5:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

comm wrote:
That is an awesome analysis, northway. We haven't even really seen the Republican platform yet, so current polls are going entirely on name recognition and personal sentiment.

Once Obama and Romney start slinging mud and making promises... then the electorate will definitley start to skew one way or the other. Personally, I think Obama has it unless Rmoney does something crazy. Obama can promise to buy the world for the taxpayers and his base wont worry about the budget deficit. Rmoney can't do that without alienating the conservatives who realize how f*cked America is because of its debt and obligations.


To be fair, whether or not Obama provides a solution to pay for entitlement programs, his economic plan still looks more fiscally conservative than Romney's, considering the latter's penchant for defense funding. Romney wants to cut taxes on top earners and says he will make up the difference by closing tax loopholes and the like, which sounds awfully optimistic to me. If given a choice between deficits due to entitlement spending and those due to defense spending and tax cuts for the very wealthy, I'm not happy either way, but I'm going to go with the entitlement spending. Basically, Romney isn't Ron Paul, and I don't see how he's going to be any better for the deficit than Obama will be, and he might well be worse.

In regards to my analysis above: that doesn't even take into account externalities like the slowing Chinese market, further problems in the Eurozone, natural disasters, Iran, etc. Remember, there was a serious race in '08 until the financial world collapsed in September, after which point it was basically just coasting.
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northway



Joined: 05 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 3:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Update on Pennsylvania's voter ID law:

Quote:
In that case, Pennsylvania might have handed those groups and their clients (including 93-year-old Viviette Applewhite) a bit of an advantage: They’ve formally acknowledged that there’s been no reported in-person voter fraud in Pennsylvania and there isn’t likely to be in November.

The state signed a stipulation agreement with lawyers for the plaintiffs which acknowledges there “have been no investigations or prosecutions of in-person voter fraud in Pennsylvania; and the parties do not have direct personal knowledge of any such investigations or prosecutions in other states.”

Additionally, the agreement states Pennsylvania “will not offer any evidence in this action that in-person voter fraud has in fact occurred in Pennsylvania and elsewhere” or even argue “that in person voter fraud is likely to occur in November 2012 in the absense of the Photo ID law.


http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/07/pennsylvania_voter_id_no_in_person_voter_fraud.php?ref=fpa

Remind me, why do we need a law preventing 9% of registered voters from going to the polls if voter fraud isn't a serious problem? Oh, right:

Quote:
“Pro-Second Amendment? The Castle Doctrine, it’s done. First pro-life legislation - abortion facility regulations - in 22 years, done. Voter ID, which is gonna allow Governor Romney to win the state of Pennsylvania, done,” Turzai said at this weekend’s Republican State Committee meeting , according to PoliticsPA.com.


http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/06/pennsylvania_gop_leader_voter_id_will_help_romney.php
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr. Romney Goes to London

'Worse than Palin'

Yep. That's one of the headlines from Mitt's trip abroad. After a couple of devastating weeks of Bain Capital and income tax return stories, along comes a great opportunity to change the story...and what does Rmoney do? He humiliates himself and embarrasses the rest of us (Harry Reid), even getting himself mocked by the mayor of London in front of 60,000 people and slammed by the Prime Minister himself: “Of course, it's easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere”.

Just how bad is this debut on the international stage? So bad that the right wing media is staying totally silent. I can only guess that they are huddling in horror trying to figure out a way to make this Obama's fault. Have we heard the last of that mystifying Obama 'apologizing tour' now that Mitt is having to apologize every time he opens his mouth?

My personal favorite, so far, is that he denies knowing when the dressage competition will be held and will not attend. Really? Your wife's $77,000 tax write-off hobby makes it to the Olympics and you pretend you don't know anything about it and won't attend? Can you say 'family values'?

This man is not ready for prime time.

Can a nominee be deposed before he's nominated? You just know that at Bilderberg Central or wherever the vast rightwing conspiracy holds its cabals, plots are being laid...I can just see the headlines: Romney's plane on its way to Poland shot down over Sovi...Russia. Newly painted Moslem Brotherhood logo found on the tail section of the Chinese attack plane...Obama's handprint identified in the still-wet paint. Film at 7.

There were notable conservatives who openly refused to vote for McCain because Palin was on the ticket. How many of them will refuse to support Romney when he heads the ticket? 'Worse than Palin', indeed.
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Can a nominee be deposed before he's nominated? You just know that at Bilderberg Central or wherever the vast rightwing conspiracy holds its cabals, plots are being laid...I can just see the headlines: Romney's plane on its way to Poland shot down over Sovi...Russia. Newly painted Moslem Brotherhood logo found on the tail section of the Chinese attack plane...Obama's handprint identified in the still-wet paint. Film at 7.

Now why in the world would the Bilderberg group need to kill anyone when one of their advocates is guaranteed to win? It's really sad seeing you with your sports jersey and big foam #1 finger, cheering on what you think is "your team" beating "the other team". Because the fact is, both teams are owned by the same people and they win either way.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
...but it saddens me to know that many Americans think Obama is different in any substantive way.


Interesting that you think health care is not a substantive issue. It would seem that you also think the Bush Tax Cuts, immigration reform, the repeal of DADT, Citizens United, the US policy toward settlements in the West Bank, Detroit being alive and bin Laden being dead...and our relationship with our Anglo-Saxon cousins Very Happy are all non-substantive issues.

Given Romney's performance in London, I think the prospect of being mortified every time a President Romney hopped on Air Force One and headed off to an international conference somewhere is enough to give a patriot pause.

While some of the issues you point to are important, they are not the only issues that are important to me. Forgive me.

The other day Michelle Bachmann and Friends pulled their best McCarthy schtick. Some conservatives swatted her down, but not all. I submit that a vote for Romney is a vote to bring Bachmann and her Friends to the table.

Here's a snippet of the Iowa GOP party platform. The Texas platform is, if anything, even more....well, they came out against critical thinking before walking that one back.

We believe that Intelligent Design theory, or Creationism, should be included with all science instruction along with the Darwinian theory. No theory should then be taught in public schools to the exclusion of the other.

4.28
We recommend that tax funded school libraries include creation science or intelligent design materials on their bookshelves.

4.29
We support displaying the Ten Commandments and the American flag along with the daily recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance in its entirety in Iowa Schools.

4.30
We believe that Judeo-Christian values and Scripture should not be excluded from the public schools.

4.31
We support the free speech right of students to write and speak about God and religion in public schools.

4.32
We believe that voluntary teacher or student led prayer shall not be restricted in public schools. The use of the Bible as a textbook should be allowed.

4.33
We support the establishment of a no-activities night on Wednesdays.


I guess what saddens me is that so few people see how important the necessity of no-activities on Wednesdays is to the future of the Republic. What it comes down to is this: the hoi polloi are just a bunch of mindless unwashed sheeple.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Part II
Quote:
...but it saddens me to know that many Americans think Obama is different in any substantive way.


Let's just say, for the sake of discussion, Mr. comm....communicator?...communist??... that on the issues that are important to you (and again, I agree they are important issues), if your issue(s) is a wash between the two, and it doesn't make any difference which one of the two wins--on that issue, what about the other issues? Surely you have a preference between at least some of the issues (not an exhaustive list) that I mentioned.

I can go down to E-Mart to pick up a package of hamburger buns with sesame seeds and when I find that once again I have come at the wrong time and am out of luck, I can stomp my feet, throw the jars of Classico Italian Sausage spaghetti sauce out of my cart, fling myself on the floor and generally make a fool of myself because I am not living in a perfect world where I always get all my choices when I want them...OR I can mutter under my breath in disgust at the crappy organization of the world I live in and be happy that at least I got the spaghetti sauce this time.

What's your choice? Obama or Romney? (Those are the choices on offer unless the vast right wing conspiracy fulfills my fantasy in the next four weeks...and they almost always fail me.)
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Interesting that you think health care is not a substantive issue. It would seem that you also think the Bush Tax Cuts, immigration reform, the repeal of DADT, Citizens United, the US policy toward settlements in the West Bank, Detroit being alive and bin Laden being dead...and our relationship with our Anglo-Saxon cousins Very Happy are all non-substantive issues.

The Bush Tax Cuts that could have been repealed under the Democrat control of Congress and the Presidency from Nov 2008 to Nov 2010? Yeah, would have been nice to see those go to cover the debt. If we were stopping Israeli settlements from being built on the West Bank I'd be impressed. But we aren't. Screw Detroit. And I think any President would have killed Bin Laden just for the publicity and "I did it" factor. Oh, and I'd love to have public healthcare in the U.S. Pretty sure that didn't happen either.

If Obama puts up a -real- plan to cut the debt, declares an intent to decriminalize marijuana and/or cut the "War on Drugs", and rejects the Bush privacy violations he's continued I would probably vote for him again. Some combination of those would certainly cause me to consider it. But I see these as existential problems for the United States, far beyond the disgusting but somewhat superficial violations of separation of Church and State that the Republicans are advocating.

Obama would have to work hard to regain my confidence. Though he probably doesn't need my confidence to beat Rmoney.

EDIT:
To answer your question, I'll probably add my vote to the small percentage that the largest 3rd party candidate takes. And (even if Obama doesn't do the things I listed) I'll be slightly happier if Obama wins. He's a liar and a failure, but wow did the Republicans drop the ball on a candidate.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I'll probably add my vote to the small percentage that the largest 3rd party candidate takes


A vote for Romney. OK. Thank you for clarifying that. [Don't blame me, I didn't set up the system.]

Thought experiment:
Which party will eventually end the war on drugs and legalize weed? Social conservatives or social liberals?

Quote:
And I think any President would have killed Bin Laden just for the publicity and "I did it" factor.


Hmmm...bin Laden:
Sept. 11, '01 to Jan. 20, '09 = 0
Jan. 20, '09 to May 2, '11 = 1

Quote:
Screw Detroit

I see you are a Romney supporter. That's pretty much exactly what he said in his famous Op-Ed.
I, on the other hand, rather like that we saved god-knows-how-many jobs.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2012 2:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A little butter on the toast that is Romney...

It's just been announced that Bill Clinton will give the keynote address at the convention and nominate Obama.

I could be a little old-fashioned, but I am a firm believer in the power of the spoken (and written) word and when Bill is 'on', there are few alive today who can match him. He gave a dreadful, mind-numbing keynote back in...was it '88 (?), but this may be his last chance to talk to his party on a national stage, remind people that Hillary has served well (and should be kept in mind for '16), and that his mere appearance contrasts sharply with the absence of Bush.

[His opposite number is Gov. Chub...risty of New Jersey, who is at his attack-dog best when someone asks him a question and then surrenders the mic. Big mistake.]

Is the opposite of 'guilt by association' 'grace by association'? If Bill is 'the best politician of his generation', as many say, and he is up to the job--and you KNOW he will do his best to be up to his job--he will try to cast his cape of peace, prosperity, and surpluses over the Dems generally, Obama in particular, and the country as a whole. [And don't forget Hillary in '16!] (Wanna bet she doesn't come out at the end to share the accolades of the crowd?)
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mittens newest strategy is to not speak to the press!! Wonder how that will work out???? Obama right now is looking to get 330 electoral votes.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sat Aug 04, 2012 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
Mittens newest strategy is to not speak to the press!! Wonder how that will work out???? Obama right now is looking to get 330 electoral votes.


Didn't Palin try that last time?
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kimchipig



Joined: 07 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real issue is not the presidency, that is a done deal: Obama will win because the GOP selected about the worst candidate they could out of a field of complete wing-nuts. Romney was the only one why was not a total tinfoil hat type; he is a fat cat carpet bagger who wants to take from the poor and give to the rich. Talk about flip-flopping, he takes the cake.

The real issue is the congress and senate. The GOP and the Imagined Community types have never gotten over the "Sheriff is a Ni**** thing and they will do anything to get rid of him. Were I American, I would be pretty mad at the GOP now because 2010, the GOP has done nary a thing for working Americans except tell them they are greedy for taking Food Stamps and how America will be great if billionaires don't pay taxes.

Strange world.
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