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Is Romney (Rmoney) toast?
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Fox



Joined: 04 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:00 pm    Post subject: Re: Debate changes everything for Romney; but for how long? Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
Your complaints remind me of Republican complaints in 2008; namely that Barack Obama was so eloquent it was unfair.


My being irritated that the electorate is willing to reward blatant and obvious prevarication with support is reminiscent of people complaining about Barack Obama's eloquence? Given the two complaints differ both in terms of target (mine: the populace, 2008 Republicans: Obama), and in terms of basis (mine: absence of substance, 2008 Republicans: presence of charisma), I don't see a reasonable grounds of comparison. None the less, let me put the matter to rest: I don't see anything unfair about Mitt Romney's "eloquence."

Kuros wrote:
It wasn't unfair, because McCain was peddling crap. Same thing this year, except both Obama and Romney are peddling crap.


That seems a key difference to me.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:34 pm    Post subject: Re: Debate changes everything for Romney; but for how long? Reply with quote

Fox wrote:
Kuros wrote:
Your complaints remind me of Republican complaints in 2008; namely that Barack Obama was so eloquent it was unfair.


My being irritated that the electorate is willing to reward blatant and obvious prevarication with support is reminiscent of people complaining about Barack Obama's eloquence? Given the two complaints differ both in terms of target (mine: the populace, 2008 Republicans: Obama), and in terms of basis (mine: absence of substance, 2008 Republicans: presence of charisma), I don't see a reasonable grounds of comparison. None the less, let me put the matter to rest: I don't see anything unfair about Mitt Romney's "eloquence."


There's probably a mix of voters responding to prevarication and Romney's substantive points. Again, Obama didn't call Romney out on his prevarications.

Anyway, Romney supporters are rightfully more enthusiastic that Romney showed some competence. Many of the mushy Independents who can be persuaded at this point aren't sophisticated. I'll let you read into the women voters what you will.
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sirius black



Joined: 04 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Too many things have to happen for Romney to win. The planets would have to allign perfectly.

Its Obama's win the question is if Romney will make a horse race out of it.

The media keeps spouting national polls which mean absolutely nothing. The polls in the 10 swing states are the ONLY thing that matters and amongst them the top 5 or 6 (Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia)

I'm not saying this to say I'm a fan of Obama but a realism about what is going on. I'm personally thinking 3rd party myself but the reality is Obama should win. If you want to place a bet on it, the vegas odds have it where you can win about 280 bucks if you put a hundred bucks on Romney. You have to bet about 300 bucks to win 100 if you pick Obama. Bookies make it their life's blood to know this kinda stuff. Once in a while they may get a super bowl wrong or whatever but they make billions knowing the true odds of things and this election is Obama's to lose and Romney may be feeling confident but he's a long, long way from winning.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: DC area

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sirius black wrote:
The media keeps spouting national polls which mean absolutely nothing. The polls in the 10 swing states are the ONLY thing that matters and amongst them the top 5 or 6 (Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia).


It's the NYT, so you're obviously limited in your page views if you don't subscribe, but i find Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight blog to be the best analysis of all the polls and the like. I think he does a pretty good job of staying above the poltical factors and focusing on just statistical trends and the like.
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actionjackson



Joined: 30 Dec 2007
Location: Any place I'm at

PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, this is out there now. A pretty long read but I don't think it really sheds any new light on what type of person Mitt really is or what he'll say to get it.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/78582788/McCain-2008-Oppo-File
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sirius black



Joined: 04 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

actionjackson wrote:
Well, this is out there now. A pretty long read but I don't think it really sheds any new light on what type of person Mitt really is or what he'll say to get it.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/78582788/McCain-2008-Oppo-File


Thanks. The site has done nothing to change my opinion about the election. Its a little closer since the debate and there are game changers (such as the financial collapse in '0Cool but if there are no major events then its still Obama's.

That is an objective opinion not based on ideological preference.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

actionjackson wrote:
Well, this is out there now. A pretty long read but I don't think it really sheds any new light on what type of person Mitt really is or what he'll say to get it.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/78582788/McCain-2008-Oppo-File


Mr. Mitt, should he win, would have no choice but to bow and scrape to the extreme wing of his party or suffer a primary challenge. What that means is a total rejection of science in the 21st Century.
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sirius black



Joined: 04 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mitt isn't going to win unless there is some external event that changes things as it did in '08.

The recent gains just means Obama may not win by a larger margin than he could.

There is simply too much that has to happen for Romney to win. Obama enjoys the lions share of the biggest swing states.

National polls mean nothing in an electoral college. The media keeps mentioning it to cloud the real race. The election is who will win the top 5 or 6 swing states and the smaller ones (Nevada, NH, Iowa, etc.) only matter if they split the larger ones.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Romney's unlikely to win, but he's no longer toast . . . at least not until the foreign policy debate has concluded.

Edit: Looking at Nate Silver's blog, I'd say Florida is now likely Romney. Ohio and Nevada are likely Obama. The true swing states:

Colorado, Virginia, Iowa (!).

The only other states appearing relevant right now are New Hampshire and Wisconsin, but these are fairly likely Obama.

And here's an increasingly likely nightmare scenario.

Possible resolution of nightmare scenario.
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Died By Bear



Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=JDanNdzAUn0
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nautilus



Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
Romney's unlikely to win, but he's no longer toast . .


What I predicted 4 months ago was that obama would be history the moment he had a live debate with Romney.
Because Romney's a brawler. He has a way of pushing buttons, dominating conversation and making others look weak. Thats why he steamrolled over Newt gingrich.

Quote:
. at least not until the foreign policy debate has concluded..


C'mon, actual policy has little to do with the outcome. people aren't that rational. Its about which of the two strutting peacocks demonstrates the most personal confidence and charisma.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: DC area

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nautilus wrote:
Kuros wrote:
Romney's unlikely to win, but he's no longer toast . .


What I predicted 4 months ago was that obama would be history the moment he had a live debate with Romney.
Because Romney's a brawler. He has a way of pushing buttons, dominating conversation and making others look weak. Thats why he steamrolled over Newt gingrich.

Quote:
. at least not until the foreign policy debate has concluded..


C'mon, actual policy has little to do with the outcome. people aren't that rational. Its about which of the two strutting peacocks demonstrates the most personal confidence and charisma.


Well he fell back to reality last night. Unfortunately for him, Obama managed to pull himself back together.
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caniff



Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gotta keep the drama up.
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
The true swing states:

Colorado, Virginia, Iowa (!).

Virginia went to Obama by the slimmest of margins in 2008. The idea that the last 4 years of broken promises didn't sour 1% of his voters is kind of silly. While I don't want either of these clowns to win, I don't think Obama has a chance in Virginia.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 11:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

caniff wrote:
Gotta keep the drama up.


There's an interesting thought. Politics has become such an industry and media behemoth that the powers-that-be have a vested interest in keeping the race as close as possible so as to keep the money flowing.
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