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Flooded market right now?
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ttompatz



Joined: 05 Sep 2005
Location: Kwangju, South Korea

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And slightly off-topic but along a similar vein....

EFL IS a growth industry.

In the 80's and 90's the place to be was Japan. Wages were high, jobs were plentiful, work was easy and people got on airplanes.

AFTER the flu in 97/98 things changed. Japan stagnated and Korea started their growth spurt. From about 2000 onward Korea was the best bang for your buck in EFL. Lots of jobs, money was good, living was easy.

Move forward another decade and things move around.

China is now in its ascendency. Jobs are plentiful. Money is not bad (and getting better). The days of not finding work at more than 3000rmb are long gone and remuneration packages in the 6-15k rmb + benefits are easier to find.

Thailand has also matured as an EFL market with jobs in the 40k range being pretty common for those willing to look for them; up from 6000 thb a scant decade ago.

Has the market for EFL teachers in Korea reached its peak? I would say yes.
It has gone from a peak of about 30,000 teachers in 2008 to about 22,000 E2s now but that is still a long way up from the 6000 E2s back in 2002.

Is there still a demand? I would also say yes.

.
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iggyb



Joined: 29 Oct 2003

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My prediction: The loss of X% of the public school positions and high level of native speakers seeking to leave their homelands due to the poor economies around the world --- will cause the hakwons to begin roughing up expats the way they did in the late-1990s and early 2000s.

Working conditions will deteriorate.

More and more of the qualified teachers everyone keeps saying will be more valued in Korea will leave or bypass it for China and elsewhere.

This will continue until the pool of potential instructors dries up too much.

When will that be? No idea... A combination of improving economies in English-speaking countries and the growth in China as the go-to ESL market - coupled with the bad word of mouth Korea will be getting - will cause it to happen.

I get the feeling the people who talk about how the tightening of the job market in Korea will be a good thing for people with better qualifications don't know what it was like around 2000.

Hakwons are going to bring the cheapest people they can get away with.

If people with higher qualifications are willing to accept the same conditions as someone who doesn't, and as those conditions will be falling across the board, then they will be marketable - for sure.

--- If hakwons can get certified, experienced teachers on the cheap, of course they will go for it. But the conditions those people will work under will be deteriorating for all.

The situation might be somewhat different for whatever % of public school jobs remain: The government will be more steady in terms of working conditions and favor qualified people more, but pay and benefits will trend down, and who knows, if the economy in Korea drops further, they might start preferring to hire people with less qualifications for the cheaper pay just like hakwons will.

Things got better with EFL in Korea in the early 2000s when the industries horrible reputation and stronger US (and other?) economy dried up the instructor pool to the point hakwons were having to bring in people with fake degrees.

Before that, it wasn't easy to find someone who wasn't from the US or Canada and schools tried hard to get Americans. By the early 2000s, you saw the hakwon industry reaching out to Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and so on.

Having an overflow of instructors isn't likely to see the industry go back to preferring North Americans so heavily, but it is NOT going to make things better for people with qualifications.
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sml7285



Joined: 26 Apr 2012

PostPosted: Fri Jul 27, 2012 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iggyb wrote:
My prediction: The loss of X% of the public school positions and high level of native speakers seeking to leave their homelands due to the poor economies around the world --- will cause the hakwons to begin roughing up expats the way they did in the late-1990s and early 2000s.

Working conditions will deteriorate.

More and more of the qualified teachers everyone keeps saying will be more valued in Korea will leave or bypass it for China and elsewhere.

This will continue until the pool of potential instructors dries up too much.

When will that be? No idea... A combination of improving economies in English-speaking countries and the growth in China as the go-to ESL market - coupled with the bad word of mouth Korea will be getting - will cause it to happen.

I get the feeling the people who talk about how the tightening of the job market in Korea will be a good thing for people with better qualifications don't know what it was like around 2000.

Hakwons are going to bring the cheapest people they can get away with.

If people with higher qualifications are willing to accept the same conditions as someone who doesn't, and as those conditions will be falling across the board, then they will be marketable - for sure.

--- If hakwons can get certified, experienced teachers on the cheap, of course they will go for it. But the conditions those people will work under will be deteriorating for all.

The situation might be somewhat different for whatever % of public school jobs remain: The government will be more steady in terms of working conditions and favor qualified people more, but pay and benefits will trend down, and who knows, if the economy in Korea drops further, they might start preferring to hire people with less qualifications for the cheaper pay just like hakwons will.

Things got better with EFL in Korea in the early 2000s when the industries horrible reputation and stronger US (and other?) economy dried up the instructor pool to the point hakwons were having to bring in people with fake degrees.

Before that, it wasn't easy to find someone who wasn't from the US or Canada and schools tried hard to get Americans. By the early 2000s, you saw the hakwon industry reaching out to Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and so on.

Having an overflow of instructors isn't likely to see the industry go back to preferring North Americans so heavily, but it is NOT going to make things better for people with qualifications.


It seems that everyone keeps assuming that Korea is the only country suffering from economic slowdowns and that wages in other countries will not decrease as well.

With the recent economic slowdown in the US, immigrants from Mexico didn't up and move to different states.. they packed their bags and moved back to Mexico. I see the same happening in the ESL market. People aren't going to be able to get the same wages/hours they did a few years ago in any country. There'll be a mass exodus back to their home countries.
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tideout



Joined: 12 Dec 2010

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 4:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sml7285 wrote:
iggyb wrote:
My prediction: The loss of X% of the public school positions and high level of native speakers seeking to leave their homelands due to the poor economies around the world --- will cause the hakwons to begin roughing up expats the way they did in the late-1990s and early 2000s.

Working conditions will deteriorate.

More and more of the qualified teachers everyone keeps saying will be more valued in Korea will leave or bypass it for China and elsewhere.

This will continue until the pool of potential instructors dries up too much.

When will that be? No idea... A combination of improving economies in English-speaking countries and the growth in China as the go-to ESL market - coupled with the bad word of mouth Korea will be getting - will cause it to happen.

I get the feeling the people who talk about how the tightening of the job market in Korea will be a good thing for people with better qualifications don't know what it was like around 2000.

Hakwons are going to bring the cheapest people they can get away with.

If people with higher qualifications are willing to accept the same conditions as someone who doesn't, and as those conditions will be falling across the board, then they will be marketable - for sure.

--- If hakwons can get certified, experienced teachers on the cheap, of course they will go for it. But the conditions those people will work under will be deteriorating for all.

The situation might be somewhat different for whatever % of public school jobs remain: The government will be more steady in terms of working conditions and favor qualified people more, but pay and benefits will trend down, and who knows, if the economy in Korea drops further, they might start preferring to hire people with less qualifications for the cheaper pay just like hakwons will.

Things got better with EFL in Korea in the early 2000s when the industries horrible reputation and stronger US (and other?) economy dried up the instructor pool to the point hakwons were having to bring in people with fake degrees.

Before that, it wasn't easy to find someone who wasn't from the US or Canada and schools tried hard to get Americans. By the early 2000s, you saw the hakwon industry reaching out to Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and so on.

Having an overflow of instructors isn't likely to see the industry go back to preferring North Americans so heavily, but it is NOT going to make things better for people with qualifications.


It seems that everyone keeps assuming that Korea is the only country suffering from economic slowdowns and that wages in other countries will not decrease as well.

With the recent economic slowdown in the US, immigrants from Mexico didn't up and move to different states.. they packed their bags and moved back to Mexico. I see the same happening in the ESL market. People aren't going to be able to get the same wages/hours they did a few years ago in any country. There'll be a mass exodus back to their home countries.


Strictly anecdotal story from the other day but related to what you're saying. I met a mid-twenties woman from Canada who was leaving her public school position after one year which she is successfully completing. She had a positive personality and is apparently certified to teach and has a number of friends who are young teachers looking for work as well.

While she enjoyed her time in Korea the money isn't enough to keep her here and she (and she mentioned her friends) are all looking at a longer start up period in finding teaching work in Canada. They realize it will take longer than they like but unless you're committed to being overseas or Korea specifically, the issues of longer term success in Canada (etc.) need to be worked out there.

I have to wonder when the "downturn" here hits a point that job quality, pay etc is not enough to draw the kind of people they want? Hard to predict I suppose but a definite change is underway.
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YTMND



Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Location: You're the man now dog!!

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 5:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I have to wonder when the "downturn" here hits a point that job quality, pay etc is not enough to draw the kind of people they want? Hard to predict I suppose but a definite change is underway.


Sex and family. Guys stick around for a wife, ladies stick around for a life.

No surprise. Western woman moves back to the "West".

Whatever "West" means.
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tideout



Joined: 12 Dec 2010

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 5:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

YTMND wrote:
Quote:
I have to wonder when the "downturn" here hits a point that job quality, pay etc is not enough to draw the kind of people they want? Hard to predict I suppose but a definite change is underway.


Sex and family. Guys stick around for a wife, ladies stick around for a life.

No surprise. Western woman moves back to the "West".

Whatever "West" means.


You may be right. I'd say most of my women friends consider Korea to be less than a great place to be for a single woman.

It's pretty subjective but I also talked with three different male friends this weekend with time from 6 months to 20 plus years here in SK. Everyone seems to feel that either conditions here are just not worth it or that in the worst of cases the uni's now out to get rid of anyone over 2.5 or something.

Having said that, I think the guy with 6 months here has the best chance of leaving for what he feels like are greener pastures. A lot of people I know here with over 6-7 years seem frankly stuck on some level.
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nautilus



Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PatrickGHBusan wrote:
OP, pm sent.


Gotta love the way Homer gets whipped in a debate, then turns into his alter ego and deletes it all. Laughing
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nautilus wrote:
PatrickGHBusan wrote:
OP, pm sent.


Gotta love the way Homer gets whipped in a debate, then turns into his alter ego and deletes it all. Laughing

Some people just can't handle being wrong, so they have to pretend they won and mock people who've given up trying to educate them.
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nautilus



Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

comm wrote:
nautilus wrote:
PatrickGHBusan wrote:
OP, pm sent.


Gotta love the way Homer gets whipped in a debate, then turns into his alter ego and deletes it all. Laughing

Some people just can't handle being wrong, so they have to pretend they won and mock people who've given up trying to educate them.


Yeah. Then they get their socks to come on and back them up.

There's about 10 posts missing from this thread btw.
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iggyb



Joined: 29 Oct 2003

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
that in the worst of cases the uni's now out to get rid of anyone over 2.5 or something.

That is part of the heart of my prediction, and it is natural. The more it becomes an employer's market, the lower the conditions of employment. In the hakwon industry, it also means the more bosses will believe they can treat workers worse and worse and get away with it.

And as conditions deterorate, the more expats who will leave for elsewhere - which will slide things back toward being an employees market.

Like I said, things didn't improve in the Korean ESL market until it got such a bad reputation, it became hard for hakwons to recruit people. -- That and the rise of public school jobs which offered the hakwons competition.
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swashbuckler



Joined: 20 Nov 2010

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tideout wrote:
YTMND wrote:
Quote:
I have to wonder when the "downturn" here hits a point that job quality, pay etc is not enough to draw the kind of people they want? Hard to predict I suppose but a definite change is underway.


Sex and family. Guys stick around for a wife, ladies stick around for a life.

No surprise. Western woman moves back to the "West".

Whatever "West" means.


You may be right. I'd say most of my women friends consider Korea to be less than a great place to be for a single woman.

It's pretty subjective but I also talked with three different male friends this weekend with time from 6 months to 20 plus years here in SK. Everyone seems to feel that either conditions here are just not worth it or that in the worst of cases the uni's now out to get rid of anyone over 2.5 or something. .


And yet said people continue stay, year after year, without making much of an attempt to improve their situations (gain more education, relocate to a new country, explore a new career, just to name a few things). Does that not say more about the individuals themselves?
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transmogrifier



Joined: 02 Jan 2012
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

swashbuckler wrote:

And yet said people continue stay, year after year, without making much of an attempt to improve their situations (gain more education, relocate to a new country, explore a new career, just to name a few things). Does that not say more about the individuals themselves?


Depends what you want. I know some where I work who rake it in, have saved up a tonne of money, and get to go on an overseas vacation for a month or two every year.

Not a bad life if you aren't all that interested in starting a family.
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swashbuckler



Joined: 20 Nov 2010

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

transmogrifier wrote:
swashbuckler wrote:

And yet said people continue stay, year after year, without making much of an attempt to improve their situations (gain more education, relocate to a new country, explore a new career, just to name a few things). Does that not say more about the individuals themselves?


Depends what you want. I know some where I work who rake it in, have saved up a tonne of money, and get to go on an overseas vacation for a month or two every year.

Not a bad life if you aren't all that interested in starting a family.


Exactley my point. Also a lot of people with families here too who are content with their life and don't necessarily feel "stuck".
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viciousdinosaur



Joined: 30 Apr 2012

PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

swashbuckler wrote:
transmogrifier wrote:
swashbuckler wrote:

And yet said people continue stay, year after year, without making much of an attempt to improve their situations (gain more education, relocate to a new country, explore a new career, just to name a few things). Does that not say more about the individuals themselves?


Depends what you want. I know some where I work who rake it in, have saved up a tonne of money, and get to go on an overseas vacation for a month or two every year.

Not a bad life if you aren't all that interested in starting a family.


Exactley my point. Also a lot of people with families here too who are content with their life and don't necessarily feel "stuck".


A lot of that can depend on your status within the country. Someone with residency is going to have an easier go of it than a migrant worker (E2)
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nautilus wrote:
comm wrote:
nautilus wrote:
PatrickGHBusan wrote:
OP, pm sent.


Gotta love the way Homer gets whipped in a debate, then turns into his alter ego and deletes it all. Laughing

Some people just can't handle being wrong, so they have to pretend they won and mock people who've given up trying to educate them.


Yeah. Then they get their socks to come on and back them up.

There's about 10 posts missing from this thread btw.


Sorry Nautilus but contrary to others this is my only account here. I had my homer (user account) and thedude (mod account) terminated and deactivated in 2008, you can check if you wish and that was not hidden when it happen.

What I did do is pm the OP with whatever advice I could provide. I sent him/her two pm's on that topic. What did you do in here except rant, insult and try to start some pathetic little flame war while you spued ignorant crap that was compeltely useless about the job market in Korea?

Christ you are a joke. Laughing You call me out of touch and challenge my employability while your only "advice" is: ah man no jobs here dude, move to China. Laughing Laughing Laughing

Now I sure did not get whipped in here but if you need to tell yourself that and if that is the only "argument" left to you, well knock yourself out pal.

Now you and your little pal comm can continue this if you wish.


Last edited by PatrickGHBusan on Sun Jul 29, 2012 3:34 am; edited 1 time in total
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