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Is Romney (Rmoney) toast?
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:08 am    Post subject: Is Romney (Rmoney) toast? Reply with quote

Just how wounded is Romney (Rmoney) after this last week of the Bain attacks?

From my viewpoint, it looks like the guy is on the floor, writhing in agony from a knock-out blow, unable to get back on his feet. Not quite unconscious, but not far from it. When even leaders of your own party are calling for you to release your tax returns, you have a major problem.

When the poor (metaphorically speaking of course) guy can't do better than whine that Kerry's wife didn't release her tax returns, it's pretty much over.

For a few days there, I thought maybe RP would pull off another theft of the majority of delegates in Nebraska and be in a position (far out as it was) to pull off a coup at the convention (setting off a GOP descent into a civil war of their own).

I know now it is a fantasy, but there was the possibility for a few days, that Mitt would implode and pull out of the campaign (wishful thinking) and leave the convention free to nominate yet another Bush (#3).

I stand by my prediction of last Halloween: Obama by about 350 in the Electoral College.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 8:03 am    Post subject: Re: Is Romney (Rmoney) toast? Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Just how wounded is Romney (Rmoney) after this last week of the Bain attacks?


Significantly wounded. Consult Nate Silver (behind an obnoxious NYTimes article limit wall). He states Obama's lead has not widened as a result of the Bain attacks. Perhaps independent voters understand Obama the Populist as an absurd notion. Nevertheless, I believe that Obama has found his narrative and this will stick. His arrow now pricks, but the poison will have an effect by September.

Ya-ta Boy wrote:

I stand by my prediction of last Halloween: Obama by about 350 in the Electoral College.


The most realistic but optimistic take for Obama would be Obama by 332 in the electoral college. (or 333, I keep forgetting Omaha). You only get within ten of 350 should Obama win all the toss-ups plus one of the bigger likely Romney states: NC, AZ, IN, or MO. So basically, you're hedging for either MO or NC to go Obama. Well, if one goes the other is likely, but the odds are against it.

Gary Johnson will prevent an Obama win in Romney friendly territories the West (AZ, MT). He may even spoil his home territory of New Mexico. Its an open question whether Gary Johnson could intervene to block a decisive victory in the East.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 8:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I take back my contentions about Gary Johnson. So far his candidacy looks to be somewhat favorable for Obama.
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ontheway



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Romney was unelectable from the outset. Now he's melting, melting, melting ... and Obama keeps throwing more water on ...

There were better R choices as alternatives to Romney who didn't seek the nomniation.

Only Ron Paul - among the pack of previous declared R candidates could have and still could defeat Obama.

Paul could still have his name placed in nomination, although it would take quite a bit of political strategy, since Paul actually controls five delegations, not four.

The only hope for the Rs is for the delegates to wake up and revolt against Romney just prior to the start of the convention. They break their pledge to Romney. Romney's name is placed into nomination, followed by Paul, followed by others chosen in backroom deals. No first round nominee is chosen. A new face appears and takes the R nomination. The Rs are still unlikely to be wise enough to choose Ron Paul.

Romney is and always has been toast.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ontheway wrote:
Romney is and always has been toast.

There is literally no reason whatsoever to vote for Romney over Obama. They are pretty much corporate-fascist clones of one another, and (like Obama) every stinking word that comes out of Romney's mouth is meant to deceive people. He says he wants he wants to repeal/replace Obamacare? With what, Romneycare? Rolling Eyes

Basically the whole conversation is a giant waste of time. Obama will probably win, but it makes zero difference.
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Rteacher



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

War-monger Romney got a military deferment for doing Mormon missionary work in Paris - he's French toast!
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rteacher wrote:
War-monger Romney got a military deferment for doing Mormon missionary work in Paris - he's French toast!

lolol
What's sad is that the Republicans in positions of power don't really care. They get paid and reelected whether they choose a great presidential candidate or a Romney. It should be a very clear sign even to liberal Americans that corporations are running the show (and that the letter next to the President's name is irrelevant) when such a poor candidate who's so similar to the incumbent is chosen as the Republican nominee.

No matter who you vote for, Executive power will expand in areas like:
The Patriot Act
Extra-judicial killings of Americans and others
Warrantless wiretapping
Internet censorship in the name of copyrights
Hypocritical enforcement of the "War on Drugs"
All-encompassing corporatism in the form of both handouts and competition-crushing regulations

I'll be happy to see Rmoney go down in flames, but it saddens me to know that many Americans think Obama is different in any substantive way.
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northway



Joined: 05 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 4:59 am    Post subject: Re: Is Romney (Rmoney) toast? Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
Ya-ta Boy wrote:
Just how wounded is Romney (Rmoney) after this last week of the Bain attacks?


Significantly wounded. Consult Nate Silver (behind an obnoxious NYTimes article limit wall). He states Obama's lead has not widened as a result of the Bain attacks. Perhaps independent voters understand Obama the Populist as an absurd notion. Nevertheless, I believe that Obama has found his narrative and this will stick. His arrow now pricks, but the poison will have an effect by September.

Ya-ta Boy wrote:

I stand by my prediction of last Halloween: Obama by about 350 in the Electoral College.


The most realistic but optimistic take for Obama would be Obama by 332 in the electoral college. (or 333, I keep forgetting Omaha). You only get within ten of 350 should Obama win all the toss-ups plus one of the bigger likely Romney states: NC, AZ, IN, or MO. So basically, you're hedging for either MO or NC to go Obama. Well, if one goes the other is likely, but the odds are against it.

Gary Johnson will prevent an Obama win in Romney friendly territories the West (AZ, MT). He may even spoil his home territory of New Mexico. Its an open question whether Gary Johnson could intervene to block a decisive victory in the East.


I thought the blogs weren't behind the pay wall?
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sirius black



Joined: 04 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The media, the RNC and the Dems know the race is pretty much over. Unless something significant happens.
The media tries to paint a more even race so people will watch. They keep saying national pollls show this and that and its neck and neck. Complete and utter BS and they know it. National polls mean jack schitt in the electoral process. The fact is that about 40 of the 50 states are already decided. No matter what California will voe Dem and Texas will vote Republican. The ONLY thing that matters are the swing states. Of the 5 biggest one, Obama is leading in almost all of them except Florida where its a statistical dead heat. He could pull it out. He is ahead in Ohio, not by a lot but enough for him to be considered the favorite in that state. No way anyone can win if they lose both Ohio and Florida. Obama has a sizeable lead in Penna. He's leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia. So far its over. The kindest polls has Romney with about 180 electoral votes before the swing states. (Realclear site).

Too many thngs will have to happen for Romney to win.

Obama has disapppointed but its 2004 all over again. Funny thing is Obama is using Republican tactics and they are crying foul that someone is using their own tactics on them.
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bucheon bum



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: DC area

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:12 am    Post subject: Re: Is Romney (Rmoney) toast? Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
So basically, you're hedging for either MO or NC to go Obama. Well, if one goes the other is likely, but the odds are against it.

Gary Johnson will prevent an Obama win in Romney friendly territories the West (AZ, MT). He may even spoil his home territory of New Mexico. Its an open question whether Gary Johnson could intervene to block a decisive victory in the East.


Obama has a shot at winning MO, but I think he's toast in NC. In regards to MO, it really will come down to voter turn-out.

And Obama is definitely going to win NM. No idea about AZ or MT...

Quote:
Obama has disapppointed but its 2004 all over again. Funny thing is Obama is using Republican tactics and they are crying foul that someone is using their own tactics on them.


Pretty much. Obama hasn't been nearly as bad as Bush was in his first term either. Obama has been pretty much a continuation of Bush's 2nd term (albeit with a better secretary of state).
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sirius black wrote:
The media, the RNC and the Dems know the race is pretty much over. Unless something significant happens.
The media tries to paint a more even race so people will watch. They keep saying national pollls show this and that and its neck and neck.


Cue the NYTimes. (I can access freely through twitter feed, oddly enough).

Quote:
Poll Shows Economic Fears Undercutting Obama Support

Declining confidence in the nation’s economic prospects appears to be the most powerful force influencing voters as the presidential election gears up, undercutting key areas of support for President Obama and helping give his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, an advantage on the question of who would better handle the nation’s economic challenges, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

Despite months of negative advertising from Mr. Obama and his Democratic allies seeking to define Mr. Romney as out of touch with the middle class and representative of wealthy interests, the poll shows little evidence of any substantial nationwide shift in attitudes about Mr. Romney.

But with job growth tailing off since spring and the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, wondering aloud whether the labor market is “stuck in the mud,” the poll showed a significant shift in opinion about Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 39 percent now saying they approved and 55 percent saying they disapproved.

In the Times/CBS poll in April, when the economy seemed to be gaining momentum, 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved.


According to Nate Silver, economic indicators form only one of three pillars of electoral prediction. The first are the nat'l polls themselves, you know, like the ones showing Obama far more likeable than Romney. The third is the ideological disposition of the challenger. Now, there are no polls for this one, but I'll go ahead and congratulate Obama: 2 out of 3 ain't bad!
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luckylady



Joined: 30 Jan 2012
Location: u.s. of occupied territories

PostPosted: Wed Jul 18, 2012 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

and who but J. McCain has stepped up to defend Hillary's aide in that lunatic Bachmann's fantasy about Muslim-infiltration in Congress

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-mccain-abedin-20120719,0,5383238.story

John M would never accept a vp slot (would he?) but if it went to a brokered convention, he might very well walk away with the nomination - who better to step up? he's sufficiently distanced himself from the Palin debacle - even if Obama wiped the floor with him in the debates, which would certainly happen, he'd restore a sense of normalcy (for what it's worth) once more to the Republican party.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mitt was down on the floor gasping for breath and Ms Ann stuck the knife in and twisted it today...urmmm Thursday (phooey on the international dateline.) Who needs enemies when you have wives like that? ['wives' was deliberate...if Mitt can use the word 'foreign' three times and counting when refering to the prez, I can bring up polygyny.]

Some people are quibbling about whether 'you' means the media or the great unwashed. Irrelevant. Her point was that nobody ain't gonna get no more info cuz mere peasants don't deserve it. She came across like my mom on a really bad day: Shut up or I'll give you something to really cry about.

The domestic news of the week was that Mitt wouldn't have run if he'd known he would have to release his tax returns, according to sources at Bain. (The reports I've seen are all the same, so maybe just one report.) If true, Mitt might be on the way out before the convention. Popcorn sales would go through the roof and save the Midwest economy.

I've never quite figured out Michele Bachmann, Sweetheart of the Right Wing. Did she just spout off to no purpose, or did she time her anti-Islamic rant in a move to force Mitt to agree or disagree with her? I'm struggling not to see a conspiracy, but it's hard. So hard.

I'll bet Aaron Sorkin wishes he could write screenplays like this.
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luckylady



Joined: 30 Jan 2012
Location: u.s. of occupied territories

PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bachman is playing to her very limited and extremely paranoid base of t-baggers - she's not now nor has ever been interested in the core republican party

Romney is stuck between a rock and a hard place, for certain. no doubt he wouldn't have run had he known about the tax issue but now that his SO has pulled a Leona Helmsley (only the little people pay taxes - remember that gem?) he's gonna have to enny up to the podium and make it right or else.

wanna bet some family emergency comes along just in time for him to bow out?
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geldedgoat



Joined: 05 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Which attacks were supposed to have an effect on Romney's campaign? Everything I've seen has already been debunked as either a lie (active manager during period of heavy outsourcing), irrelevant (tax returns), or hypocritical (see Kuros' link).
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