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northway



Joined: 05 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

comm wrote:
northway wrote:

And your own grasp on reality (already posted in the thread in CE):
Quote:
In 2011, Chicago experienced 433 murders. Precisely one Chicago homicide that year was listed under the motive of “burglary.”

And the reply from CE, since we need to take up multiple threads:
Actually, I'd prefer to be able to defend myself against someone even if they only wanted to steal my property or rape my family members. Not as serious as murder, but still something I'd prefer to stop.

Really makes you wonder why anyone would take on the responsibility of becoming a police officer, when they know they'll have to carry that dangerous gun around. I mean, why become a police officer when most crimes don't involve murder anyway? It's not worth the risk of being a police officer and owning a gun if you probably won't have to prevent a murder anyway.


But what are the odds? Are more lives saved by the presence of guns, or lost? It's impossible to surmise, but I'm going to guess the latter. The US isn't the Mad Max wasteland that many posters here think it to be.
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madoka



Joined: 27 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

northway wrote:
But what are the odds? Are more lives saved by the presence of guns, or lost? It's impossible to surmise, but I'm going to guess the latter.


Actually it's the former. According to the FBI, there are approximately 7,000 deaths per year due to firearms. According to a National Self-Defense Study (conducted by a liberal criminal law professor), a gun is used to prevent crime over 2,000,000 times a year. In 83.5% of those cases, an attacker threatened or used force first and in over half of the encounters, there were multiple attackers. 91.7% of these self-defense cases involved no fatalities, which means it never gets played in the media. This in turn gives people a false negative view of the role of guns in society.
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northway



Joined: 05 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

madoka wrote:
northway wrote:
But what are the odds? Are more lives saved by the presence of guns, or lost? It's impossible to surmise, but I'm going to guess the latter.


Actually it's the former. According to the FBI, there are approximately 7,000 deaths per year due to firearms. According to a National Self-Defense Study (conducted by a liberal criminal law professor), a gun is used to prevent crime over 2,000,000 times a year. In 83.5% of those cases, an attacker threatened or used force first and in over half of the encounters, there were multiple attackers. 91.7% of these self-defense cases involved no fatalities, which means it never gets played in the media. This in turn gives people a false negative view of the role of guns in society.


Link? By the terms you're offering ("a gun is used to prevent crime"), it sounds a whole lot like security guards carrying weapons would count towards the numbers.
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madoka



Joined: 27 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

northway wrote:

Link? By the terms you're offering ("a gun is used to prevent crime"), it sounds a whole lot like security guards carrying weapons would count towards the numbers.


Here's the text of the law journal article:

http://www.pulpless.com/gunclock/kleck1.html

Here are the highlights, if you aren't interested in reading it all:

http://www.pulpless.com/gunclock/noframedex.html

Here's the kicker:

"So, to refute the results of the National Self Defense Survey, two pro-gun-control researchers, Philip Cook and Jens Ludwig, were given funding by the Clinton administration's Department of Justice to do their own survey of Defensive Gun Uses, to attempt to prove that the National Self Defense Survey's estimate was too high.

Unfortunately for advocates of gun control, the Cook-Ludwig survey produced results about the same as the National Self Defense Survey and -- in one remarkable paragraph -- suggested that their methodology was too conservative and that the Defensive Gun Use figure could even be doubled."

BTW, out of those 7,000 murders per year due to firearms I mentioned? 2/3 of them had criminal records. That makes the difference even more staggering once you take out the deaths from gang rivalries, drug deals gone bad, etc.

Edit:

Fixed wrong link.


Last edited by madoka on Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:38 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

12ax7 wrote:


Actually, anyone who's served in the military will know that a guy writhing in pain is better than dead because of the time and resources that will be spent caring for him, amongst other things.



True. That was one of the points of moving towards intermediate caliber cartridges. Kill a man and you've taken out one man. Wound a man and you've taken out him, then the guy(s) who come and take care of him, not to mention all the resources spent taking care of him, not to mention him going back home and being vocally bitter and demoralizing.

Quote:
. 91.7% of these self-defense cases involved no fatalities, which means it never gets played in the media. This in turn gives people a false negative view of the role of guns in society.


This is probably true as well. The "If it bleeds, it leads" mentality means that you aren't always going to get a lot of play on incidents that don't involve actual shots fired. To say nothing of the incidents that aren't reported but where a gun starts a crime.

I dunno, like I said, I'm very ambivalent on the issue. I think its clear that there is a "gun problem" in the US. I think its also clear that a society with a reduced obsession towards guns is a safer one. If you could promise me a society that would have a very low number of gun deaths a year if guns were illegal, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

But I also think that sometimes you need guns, especially say, for women who would otherwise be at an extreme disadvantage in any criminal episode. If you make guns illegal, do you make rape and sexual assault more frequent?
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northway



Joined: 05 Jul 2010

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steelrails wrote:


I dunno, like I said, I'm very ambivalent on the issue. I think its clear that there is a "gun problem" in the US. I think its also clear that a society with a reduced obsession towards guns is a safer one. If you could promise me a society that would have a very low number of gun deaths a year if guns were illegal, I'd take that in a heartbeat.

But I also think that sometimes you need guns, especially say, for women who would otherwise be at an extreme disadvantage in any criminal episode. If you make guns illegal, do you make rape and sexual assault more frequent?


I don't disagree with any of this. I do disagree with the automatic assumption that gun control is some kind of evil that couldn't possibly lead to any societal good (or reduced deaths).

Madoka: I was hoping you could point me in the direction of the actual study that the gun advocate is referencing, rather than his crappy website. In any case, I couldn't find the original, but I did find this https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles/165476.pdf from the National Istitute of Justice suggesting that the numbers are quite likely inflated (page Cool.
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Died By Bear



Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Underwaterbob wrote:
Uhh, he assaulted their car and he deserves to die? Wow.



I should have explained that he was using the axe to bash the car and was inches away from bashing in the windows, putting their lives in danger. In Arizona, that's assault with a deadly weapon. I'm not sure what was said between the parties because it was on the news, but definitely no charges were filed against the retired fire chief, in fact I think he was on a morning talk show and lauded for his efforts to save the old couple.

Not going to argue with your logic, but if you think you wouldn't be in fear for your life in that situation then all the power to you - but imo you'd be shitting your diapers if some redneck came after you and your family with an axe.
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madoka



Joined: 27 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

northway wrote:

Madoka: I was hoping you could point me in the direction of the actual study that the gun advocate is referencing, rather than his crappy website. In any case, I couldn't find the original, but I did find this https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles/165476.pdf from the National Istitute of Justice suggesting that the numbers are quite likely inflated (page Cool.


Yeah, I screwed up the original link. I fixed my post though with the correct link. Here is an alternative link with the same article:

http://www.guncite.com/gcdgklec.html
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transmogrifier



Joined: 02 Jan 2012
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Died By Bear wrote:
Smart ass remarks aside, I'll tell you a true story that could happen to any of us when we get old.

An old couple were returning home after a summer vacation in California. The traffic got a bit heavy as they entered their home city because it was getting close to rush hour. The elder man driving was trying to change lanes and had his turn signal on. He didn't see the big truck change lanes behind him and overtake him in the right lane, and he thought it was clear - he sideswiped the truck with his Buick. Immediately, he pulled over to survey the damage and exchange insurance information.

But the guy in the truck was having a case of road rage. Apparently he didn't appreciate the older man obeying the speed limit, and had been trying to overtake the old man when he was hit. He was steaming that the old man had hit him and it was clearly his fault, he was mad. He jumped out of the truck and grabbed a big axe out of the bed of his truck. The old man saw him approaching, and turned to get back into his car as the younger man began to swing the axe and destroy the Buick the old couple were driving. The younger man was yelling and swinging away, when a retired fire chief pulled up, took out a gun and shot the young man dead. Left to do his damage, would the younger man go so far as to kill the old couple? IT DOESN'T matter, because it was assault with a deadly weapon. Case closed.

This is a true story. Sorry no link, but I would not type it all out just to yank your chain.

Threat over.


God bless America....
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ghostrider



Joined: 27 Jun 2011

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"RESULTS: Even after excluding many reported firearm victimizations, far more survey respondents report having been threatened or intimidated with a gun than having used a gun to protect themselves. A majority of the reported self defense gun uses were rated as probably illegal by a majority of judges. This was so even under the assumption that the respondent had a permit to own and carry the gun, and that the respondent had described the event honestly.

"CONCLUSIONS: Guns are used to threaten and intimidate far more often than they are used in self defense. Most self reported self defense gun uses may well be illegal and against the interests of society."
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11144624?dopt=Abstract

If surveys can accurately measure defensive and criminal gun use then it appears that criminal gun use is more common. There are problems with surveys. You only hear one side of the story. For example, a person may believe that they drew their gun in self defense but a police investigation might have come to the conclusion that they were illegally brandishing their weapon. In addition, a small percentage of the population will answer yes to virtually any question whether it be about having seen ghosts or aliens or whatever.
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Died By Bear



Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee

PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 1:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

transmogrifier wrote:
Died By Bear wrote:
Smart ass remarks aside, I'll tell you a true story that could happen to any of us when we get old.

An old couple were returning home after a summer vacation in California. The traffic got a bit heavy as they entered their home city because it was getting close to rush hour. The elder man driving was trying to change lanes and had his turn signal on. He didn't see the big truck change lanes behind him and overtake him in the right lane, and he thought it was clear - he sideswiped the truck with his Buick. Immediately, he pulled over to survey the damage and exchange insurance information.

But the guy in the truck was having a case of road rage. Apparently he didn't appreciate the older man obeying the speed limit, and had been trying to overtake the old man when he was hit. He was steaming that the old man had hit him and it was clearly his fault, he was mad. He jumped out of the truck and grabbed a big axe out of the bed of his truck. The old man saw him approaching, and turned to get back into his car as the younger man began to swing the axe and destroy the Buick the old couple were driving. The younger man was yelling and swinging away, when a retired fire chief pulled up, took out a gun and shot the young man dead. Left to do his damage, would the younger man go so far as to kill the old couple? IT DOESN'T matter, because it was assault with a deadly weapon. Case closed.

This is a true story. Sorry no link, but I would not type it all out just to yank your chain.

Threat over.


God bless America....



Don't know what country you're from, but in my state we have the Castle Doctrine. There are some situations that you wouldn't be able to box your way out of, especially when you hit 80 and your knees and hips start to fall apart. Then again, I'm not really interested in what you would do in NZ or wherever you're from anyway.
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transmogrifier



Joined: 02 Jan 2012
Location: Seoul, South Korea

PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 3:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Died By Bear wrote:
I'm not really interested in what you would do in NZ or wherever you're from anyway.


That's great, because I'm not really interested in engaging you in conversation.
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Died By Bear



Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee

PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

transmogrifier wrote:
Died By Bear wrote:
I'm not really interested in what you would do in NZ or wherever you're from anyway.


That's great, because I'm not really interested in engaging you in conversation.


Great, go tend to your sheep then.
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schwa



Joined: 18 Jan 2003
Location: sokcho

PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Died By Bear wrote:
transmogrifier wrote:
Died By Bear wrote:
I'm not really interested in what you would do in NZ or wherever you're from anyway.


That's great, because I'm not really interested in engaging you in conversation.


Great, go tend to your sheep then.

Theres an evident confrontationalism among those who like their guns.
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12ax7



Joined: 07 Nov 2009

PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

northway wrote:
12ax7 wrote:
Jimskins wrote:
And if you feel you need to keep a handgun to protect yourself then you have to question what kind of society you are living in.


Exactly.


And your own grasp on reality (already posted in the thread in CE):

Quote:
How rare? I asked researchers at the Chicago Police Department and my colleague Daniel Rosenbaum at the University of Chicago Crime Lab to track down some numbers. In 2011, Chicago experienced 433 murders. Precisely one Chicago homicide that year was listed under the motive of “burglary.” Another seventeen were listed as domestic altercations. Some of these might have involved a nonresident partner entering someone’s home.  You get the point. These are really unusual crimes, even in a pretty tough city.

The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports about 100 homicides per year across America that happen in the course of household burglaries. That’s less than 1 percent of U.S. homicides. Yeah, that’s about one-180th of the 18,735 gun suicides that occurred in America in 2009. Many people who attempt suicide can be helped—unless they have immediate access to the most efficient and lethal method of self-harm.  Then of course there are gun accidents and crimes committed by legal gun owners or by others who gain access to those same guns.


http://www.thenation.com/article/171879/we-fear-each-other-when-guns-themselves-are-real-danger#


As I already said, if you get a gun, odds are greater that you'll use it against a family member, someone you know, or yourself than against a burglar.
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