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The effect of a rising China on the Korean EFL market
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MetaFitX



Joined: 23 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:26 am    Post subject: The effect of a rising China on the Korean EFL market Reply with quote

This is something I've been thinking about for a while, and would appreciate any knowledgeable responses. I've been strongly considering putting down long-term roots here (in Korea) however I'm curious about the future of the EFL market here, particularly as China's economy begins to increasingly develop.

China is now South Korea's largest trading partner and I would assume that this relationship is only going to grow stronger (economically) as China's economy continues to grow.

Will Korean moms send their children to Chinese hakwons in increasing numbers in the future (I'm aware that some of them do now)?
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erasmus



Joined: 11 Sep 2010

PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 2:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know nothing about such things but I have a half-baked theory that until China creates a cultural product that is in demand outside its own borders it will continue to be the world's factory and little more. English still has a pretty good run ahead of it...
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newb



Joined: 27 Aug 2012
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I heard Koreans are eating more Ja-Jang-Myeon these days. Razz
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Dodge7



Joined: 21 Oct 2011

PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

English will be the global language of commerce for at least another 150 years. We will be looong gone by then.
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YTMND



Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Location: You're the man now dog!!

PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Will Korean moms send their children to Chinese hakwons


What does that mean?

1. Korean moms send their children to learn Chinese
2. Korean moms send their children to learn English at a hagwon (not k, there is no k sound) in Korea.
3. Korean moms send their children to learn English at a hagwon (not k, there is no k sound) in China.

I don't understand your plight, please expound. Will Australia speak Chinese and not English?

With Canada speak Chinese and not English?

What are you worried about exactly?

Just so you know, tidbit yo wee yo time, Chinese have traditional characters and simplified characters. Why would they need to simplify them? Think about it, come back, post again.
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YTMND



Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Location: You're the man now dog!!

PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dodge7 wrote:
English will be the global language of commerce for at least another 150 years. We will be looong gone by then.


Chinese has been around for a lot longer than 150 years, and those dynasties haven't developed their own Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, or US.

China may be king of their hill, but they are far from being global, let alone necessary in an English speaking country's school curriculum.
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Weigookin74



Joined: 26 Oct 2009

PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the short term no because Korea is seen as being a much safer bet. China is the wild west Korea use to be. Korea is safe for many young 22 years from sheltered backgrounds. Also, the bad economies in the west keep sending them over here like lemmings. In the medium term, maybe. Korea could get hit with a double edged sword - lots of competition from a wage rising China and some economic improvement on the home front depriving Korea of young bodies. If the economy stays bad or gets worse, Korea will continue to get ESL'ers at low wages and China will pick up the slack (ie experienced Korean vets wanting a return to purchasing power of years gone by.) In the long term, hard to say. Korea's demand won't be what it was. Japan has bottomed out, but partly due to a bad economy with high living costs. If Korea has a strong economy based on trade with a resurgent America, English will still be strong. But will prob be different from now.

I'd say the whole global economy is vulnerable and will set the tone for teaching here. If Korea's economy contracts and the government loses tax money and needs to save, we're an easy enough thing to cut. Don't base your life on here. Pay as much debt and save as much as you can. Hunker down kids; it's going to be a rough ride.
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Swampfox10mm



Joined: 24 Mar 2011

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You should be more concerned about South Korea's tragically low birth rate, and how that will kill-off a large portion of the industry.

There was a link to an article in the Chronical floating around here about how 40% of South Korean schools will need to close in the near future. It's not a prediction -- it's a fact, because there are so few children being born.
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nautilus



Joined: 26 Nov 2005
Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Swampfox10mm wrote:
You should be more concerned about South Korea's tragically low birth rate.


Oh, how tragic.

I might even be able to get a seat on the subway one day.
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randall020105



Joined: 08 Apr 2008
Location: the land of morning confusion...

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 3:54 pm    Post subject: so... Reply with quote

that's one of the reasons foreigners come here - to help with the ever declining b-rate K-Land's experiencing... didn't you know?

R.
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Weigookin74



Joined: 26 Oct 2009

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:26 pm    Post subject: Re: so... Reply with quote

randall020105 wrote:
that's one of the reasons foreigners come here - to help with the ever declining b-rate K-Land's experiencing... didn't you know?

R.


Isn't that a great idea? Encourage more Western men to come here and marry Korean women? Then, encourage more Foriegn women to marry Korean men. These foriegn women may be Filipino or Vietnamese, but can also be Western or European. (I say this to any Korean man who treats a woman well, especially.) It would expand the population. People would still be Korean if they eat Kimchi, speak Korean, and are willing to wear Hanbok on a couple of special occasion. Pure bloodedness? Nah! Not needed and very impractical! Shrinking population means shrinking economy. One need only look at Japan....
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happiness



Joined: 04 Sep 2010

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Korea aLready went thru that, maybe 2005, Chinese hagwons popped up but not to the extent of ENGLISH. Remember, 99% of the reason we are here is that Uni entrance exam and the TOEIC, etc they need for employment. Until that disappears, it doesnt matter if Swahili is the langauge de facto. Korea makes its own reasons for its education.
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Otherside



Joined: 06 Sep 2007

PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The thing people seem to miss is that English's Global appeal is not based solely on the fortunes of the US economy.
There are a good number of other countries which speak English as their native language (E2 list for example). Then there are many many many countries which speak it at a secondary level. Big, fast growing economies..

Lastly, and most importantly it's a (the) Lingua Franca. We need a language that everyone can communicate in, for better or for worse, that language is English.

There will always be a niche for people to speak the languages of specific countries and markets, but as a general skill, English is where it's at.

So, no the last thing EFL teachers have to worry about is parents sending their kids to Chinese Hagwons. I'd be far more worried about the low birthrate, cutting of public school jobs, the US economy flooding the market with applicants and the possible opening up of the Korean EFL space to countries like the Philippines and India.
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Swampfox10mm



Joined: 24 Mar 2011

PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nautilus wrote:
Swampfox10mm wrote:
You should be more concerned about South Korea's tragically low birth rate.


Oh, how tragic.

I might even be able to get a seat on the subway one day.


Yes, tragic.

An increasingly small number of people will be caring financially for a proportionally large elderly population.

And, as any fool should be able to understand, 40% fewer students will equal fewer classes, fewer schools (there are already too many, and they are on the decline) and less of a need for English teachers.
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 5:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Swampfox10mm wrote:
nautilus wrote:
Swampfox10mm wrote:
You should be more concerned about South Korea's tragically low birth rate.


Oh, how tragic.

I might even be able to get a seat on the subway one day.


Yes, tragic.

An increasingly small number of people will be caring financially for a proportionally large elderly population.

And, as any fool should be able to understand, 40% fewer students will equal fewer classes, fewer schools (there are already too many, and they are on the decline) and less of a need for English teachers.


Therein lies the problem swamp... Wink
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