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NilesQ
Joined: 27 Nov 2006
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 Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 11:10 am Post subject: |
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| slothrop wrote: |
| NilesQ wrote: |
| PatrickGHBusan wrote: |
| hellofaniceguy wrote: |
These are empty threats. Though NK is unlikely to launch a nuclear attack, it could conduct a conventional one at SK that would lead to an escalating series of retaliations that could get out of hand, it has the potential of an escalatory vicious circle. All these threats are nothing new, NK just wants attention.
And let's not forget the big point....China will back NK....the Chinese do not want the American military on their border which is what would happen if the U.S. gets a foothold in NK. |
China is unlikely to back NK if NK wants to go to war. Economics trump politics here. China's largest export market is the US. |
So true! Also, the US owes China a lot of money. Good luck collecting on that if they go to war! |
you mean if they go to war then the US doesn't have to pay? uh oh.  |
Yeah, billions of dollars in debt owed VS helping out a "likeminded nation" that is nothing like you anymore. I think it will be a part of the decision making process! Wars are essentially fought over money and/or resources. If you stand to make more by not fighting, then it is a real option that will be considered. |
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tiger fancini
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Location: Testicles for Eyes
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| Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:42 pm Post subject: |
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| hellofaniceguy wrote: |
And let's not forget the big point....China will back NK....the Chinese do not want the American military on their border which is what would happen if the U.S. gets a foothold in NK. |
I think China will back the continued existence of NK in its current form. However, I'm not sure that China would back NK if it launches any provocation that then escalates into something serious. NK is currently keeping the US military off of China's borders, and the status quo will ensure that that continues. |
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hellofaniceguy
Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: On your computer screen!
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:38 am Post subject: |
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| tiger fancini wrote: |
| hellofaniceguy wrote: |
And let's not forget the big point....China will back NK....the Chinese do not want the American military on their border which is what would happen if the U.S. gets a foothold in NK. |
I think China will back the continued existence of NK in its current form. However, I'm not sure that China would back NK if it launches any provocation that then escalates into something serious. NK is currently keeping the US military off of China's borders, and the status quo will ensure that that continues. |
If you recall from history... the intervention of Chinese troops in support of the North, the war came to a stalemate roughly along the 38th parallel.
Those thousands military folks who were killed during the korea war thought the exact same thing....that the Chinese would not help.
The ONLY reason all these years that war has not started again...is because of China. The U.S. "powers to be" know what you and I don't know...
and that is that the U.S. cannot take on China alone and win.
Don't you think...that for one minute...that if China was not in the equation that SK and the U.S. would have "taken" over NK by now? |
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tiger fancini
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Location: Testicles for Eyes
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 12:49 pm Post subject: |
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| hellofaniceguy wrote: |
The ONLY reason all these years that war has not started again...is because of China. |
This is my point. China does not want another Korean war on its doorstep. China wants a peaceful peninsula that is nuke-free and accepting of the current NK/China border. Apart from the nuke issue, the status quo sort of ensures this situation.
| hellofaniceguy wrote: |
| Don't you think...that for one minute...that if China was not in the equation that SK and the U.S. would have "taken" over NK by now? |
They may have done, we'll never know. But the more time passes, the less likely it is that this will happen. The old-timers in SK may long for reunification, but once they start passing away and the current generation of 40s and 50s become older, I believe the perception of reunification will shift. It won't be too long until a prominent SK figure publicly announces that SK doesn't need reunification, and the majority of the population will agree.
NK, as terrible as it is in its current guise, serves a useful purpose for SK, China and the USA. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 2:59 pm Post subject: |
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| hellofaniceguy wrote: |
If you recall from history... the intervention of Chinese troops in support of the North, the war came to a stalemate roughly along the 38th parallel.
Those thousands military folks who were killed during the korea war thought the exact same thing....that the Chinese would not help.
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Anyone who uses China of 1950 as a predictor of Chinese behavior in 2013 is out of touch with reality.
That's like saying Germany in 1939 or Russia in 1950 is the same as Russia today.
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| The ONLY reason all these years that war has not started again...is because of China. |
Yes and no. Until the Sino-Soviet split it didn't happen because of the economic and political costs of waging a long drawn war of attrition in Korea and potentially seeing the Soviets involved to a greater degree. After the split, the U.S. wanted to encourage the normalization of relations and trade with China and invading NK would make that all but impossible. It was to everyone's mutual benefit. When that went down, everyone could see the writing on the wall. North Korea was from then on a puppet, not an ally.
So China has everything to do with it, but the U.S. has encouraged this as well. After all it was part of the grander strategy of the Cold War. In a war where full scale military action meant nuclear war, the way to victory was in the diplomatic and economic arena. This was done with the U.S. primarily responsible for defense, while Western Europe and East Asia developed their economies and improved their standard of living. In the meantime Communism would collapse under its own contradictions. Reaching out to China and normalizing trade with them was an extension of this and perhaps the most masterful stroke. In the case of the Chinese, having the willingness and foresight to engage a such a policy was a masterstroke as well.
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| and that is that the U.S. cannot take on China alone and win. |
They certainly could in a mid-level conflict centered around naval and air action. Fighting them in a full-scale non-nuclear Korean War 2 would just be idiotic as both China and the US would lose the second the first shot was fired. Heck, they'd lose economically and politically in the mid-level scenario as well.
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| Don't you think...that for one minute...that if China was not in the equation that SK and the U.S. would have "taken" over NK by now? |
If you include the USSR as well, this is undeniably true. |
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Malislamusrex
Joined: 01 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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Russia want to sell gas to South Korea and North Korea is in the way.
China's demand for trade with South Korea is becoming more relevant compared to cheap N Korea labor. And the new political establishment aren't too keen to promote Mao's rhetoric and anti-capitalist ideologies.
N. Korea has always made a big fuss to seem relevant, but the fact is they aren't beneficial to anyone anymore. All the countries in the region would benefit if they were taken over by new management.
No one will back them now, so they are desperate. |
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tiger fancini
Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Location: Testicles for Eyes
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Malislamusrex wrote: |
| All the countries in the region would benefit if they were taken over by new management. |
This new management would face a mammoth task. Who would install them and ultimately pull their strings? Who would pay for them? Would they push for reunification? What would they do with the nuclear facilities? Would the Americans maintain a presence on the peninsula? And how would they deal with the poor souls who are NK citizens that have been treated so badly for so long? It's a fascinating situation, and I'd love to see it happen someday. But I wouldn't expect it to be easy! |
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Shinawi
Joined: 18 Mar 2013
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 8:34 pm Post subject: |
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| If North Korea attacks, then I'll gain the courage to ask the information desk lady out to flee with me. |
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Malislamusrex
Joined: 01 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Thu Mar 28, 2013 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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Who would install them and ultimately pull their strings? No idea
Who would pay for them? The IMF would offer a loan.
Would they push for reunification? Long term reunification is a good idea. Short term it is a bad idea. South Korea will keep the border as it is. They use North Korean labor to develop the country and use cheap North Korean labor to develop both economies. It would be better than it was under Kim Jeong Un but it would be closer to tyranny than democracy.
What would they do with the nuclear facilities? Try and use them in a deal for finance.
And how would they deal with the poor souls who are NK citizens that have been treated so badly for so long? South Korea shouldn't change things drastically. If they give them food and accommodation and a job change will come.
| tiger fancini wrote: |
| Malislamusrex wrote: |
| All the countries in the region would benefit if they were taken over by new management. |
This new management would face a mammoth task. Who would install them and ultimately pull their strings? Who would pay for them? Would they push for reunification? What would they do with the nuclear facilities? Would the Americans maintain a presence on the peninsula? And how would they deal with the poor souls who are NK citizens that have been treated so badly for so long? It's a fascinating situation, and I'd love to see it happen someday. But I wouldn't expect it to be easy! |
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Stan Rogers
Joined: 20 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 5:31 am Post subject: |
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| Things seldom ever work out according to plan. Everyone is predicting hardship and difficulty. I have a strange feeling that reunification will work out better than anyone expected. |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 8:17 am Post subject: |
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Well historically a united Korea was dominated by China or was invaded or taken over by Japan. It's a rough neighborhood. Russia china and Japan all casting their eyes on korea.
The status quo has worked except for the poor souls n north korea. South korea , china are rich and peaceful.
For the sake of koreans would love to see the nation reunified but I am nnot sure that s a good idea. As other posters have stated think the idea of a united korea is fading and there is more acceptance that the current situation is probably the best hoped for.
As for North korea attackng; only if China gives the okay and that is not going to happen right now. But there may be some kind of limited attack.
Kim's summoning of soldiers and students to a mass meetng where he told them to prepare for war seems to me to be more lkely he is rallying supporters because of an internal situation than an actual call to war. Making a display of his power to quiet dissent. |
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saram_
Joined: 13 May 2008
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| Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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So the news today is that the Democratic People's Republic has said they have entered a war state.
Several news agencies are reporting this..
North Korea announced Saturday that it had entered a "state of war" with South Korea and would deal with every inter-Korean issue accordingly.
"As of now, inter-Korea relations enter a state of war and all matters between the two Koreas will be handled according to wartime protocol," the North said in a joint statement attributed to all government bodies and institutions.
What's going to happen now!
The situation isn't really getting any better is it? |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Fri Mar 29, 2013 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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A bit dated, but mostly still relevant:
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This time we got the skinny from a South Korean-born NATO soldier with intimate ties to the South Korean Army. He told us some insider info about the defense plans of his motherland in the event of a North Korean invasion, and how they are pretty much fucked if the North does decide to come down their way.
VICE: So where does South Korea keep all of their soldiers?
Anonymous soldier: During a South Korean marine�s 24-month conscription they patrol a piece of real estate assigned to them on the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone). A company is made up of around 120 infantry soldiers defending South Korea from a potential invasion by the North. It�s the most fortified place on Earth, with something like 10 million installed and active landmines.
Wait, what exactly is a �piece of real estate�?
A piece of real estate is a defensive position and a square in the grid that is the DMZ. They learn every inch of it by patrolling and reinforcing it constantly and changing the coordinates of their artillery periodically.
Are they always prepared for an invasion?
Oh yeah. It�s like Israel.
What would it be like if it did happen?
If the North Koreans did invade, intelligence puts their army at around 1.2 million infantry who would crash the borders at various points. Because of all those landmines put in over the years, we figure they�re going to clear a lane of entry for their troops to punch through using artillery and overwhelming numbers, which means it�s critical the whole line and each piece of real estate is held by each company. If the line is breached at all, we�re pretty much fucked. Their orders are to hold their real estate for seven minutes�no more, no less.
Seven minutes sounds really specific.
That�s exactly how long it takes to scramble bombers to their location so they can bomb it directly. This is why they often call their little grid the �tomb.� It�s ultimately a suicide zone.
That�s pretty heavy. Where are these jets coming from, exactly?
Jets in the present plan would be coming from Okinawa, Guam, and some of the US aircraft carriers stationed in the Pacific. But by the time the jets take off and drop their bombs, there won�t be any airfields to land and refuel at in South Korea, because all of the airfields are strategic North Korean targets and all of their heavy artillery have the range to hit them easily. That�s why the South Korean air force has top-secret landing zones already set up on highways across the country that are equipped to refuel and rearm planes. But apparently North Korean spies have already confirmed all of these highways anyway.
So basically everybody is fucked and the defensive plan is hopeless.
Nobody really expects those companies to hold on for that long anyway. It�s a long shot. They�ll not only be getting their area bombed to shit, but don�t forget, North Korea has something like 130,000 well-trained special forces, and they�ll probably already be landing on the South Korean coast coming up their ass while they�re holding on for seven minutes.
Coming up their ass doing what?
They�ll be do something called �promoting general chaos,� a military tactic meant to shock your enemy�s will to fight by attacking psychological targets like city halls, police bases, radio stations, water purification plants, hospitals, trains, and even grocery stores. There�s also confirmed intelligence that some North Korean troops will be using South Korean uniforms to confuse people. On top of all that there are the tunnels.
What do you mean, "the tunnels"?
They�ve started finding these tunnels built by the North Koreans that I�ve been to myself, that stretch two and a half miles into South Korean territory. We�re talking tunnels wide enough that every hour a whole battalion could be pumped out of it and just start swarming everything in sight.
I�ve heard a lot about the North Koreans and their underground armies. What�s that all about?
The lesson the North Korean army learned from Iraq, Afghanistan, and even the last Korean War, is that the US, South Korea�s chief ally, always has air supremacy. That�s why they�ve created bases for full divisions buried under mountains that are so deep and impenetrable they could sustain a nuclear attack. Not to mention they have built-in fiber-optic communication networks connecting every underground base. They literally have everything you�d need there, like factories and workforces to build tanks, guns, and munitions. They use these mountain bases as permanent bunkers, with long range howitzers on rail lines scaling across peaks that can relentlessly shoot salvos. Mobile artillery like that is an incredible advantage. Even though the South Korean army could probably triangulate where the howitzer fire comes from, the rail lines allow them to quickly relocate.
This all sounds like they�re really prepared and South Korea isn�t.
I mean it�s a completely different society and outlook. Just to give you an idea how hard and disciplined these fuckers are, around 2005 a North Korean soldier defected and gave himself up to South Korean police in some remote village on the northwest coast. When an intelligence officer asked him how he got there he said he swam. The guy was basically a member of an elite reconnaissance unit that literally swam something like 30 miles down from North Korea, gathered intelligence on South Korean defenses, then swam back. The guy just ditched his unit for the swim back. He was shocked the South Koreans didn�t do the same thing.
Jesus Christ.
A few years before that, South Korean Special Forces soldiers, guys who are always pulling operations behind enemy lines, told me that the North Korean army uses political prisoners and captured South Korean soldiers as training bait; they send them into the forest and tell them that they can live if they get to the border. Then they let their soldiers hunt them. None survive, obviously. North Korean Special Forces are notorious for killing with perfect headshots.
Tell me plain and simple: How do you think an invasion would all play out and when?
If they ever attacked, the South would definitely own the air, but they�ll pay a severely heavy price. Obviously China and the US would get involved and with the new naval race going on in the Pacific, it would pretty much draw in every country in that area. Who knows what the future holds though. They recently fired a rocket to celebrate the 100th anniversary of Kim Jong Il, but the rocket failed. The North Korean regime was hoping it would solidify Kim Jong Un�s competency as a leader to their public. So now they need a new piece of hardware to impress the people. And a lot of experts think it�ll be a third atomic bomb testing. After that, things are just going to escalate. He�s already looking weak and insecure and that�s a bad sign.
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milkweedma
Joined: 15 Dec 2006
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Stan Rogers
Joined: 20 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Sun Mar 31, 2013 5:14 am Post subject: |
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| Time to start eating every meal as if it were your last. |
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