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If War Breaks Out.
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Squire



Joined: 26 Sep 2010
Location: Jeollanam-do

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 4:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd stay as long as my job exists. Maybe I wouldn't have that attitude if I were living in Seoul but I live on the south coast. I don't believe I'm in any real danger here
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ajuma



Joined: 18 Feb 2003
Location: Anywere but Seoul!!

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

slothrop wrote:
That's not a swing!LOL
in the spring of 1997 the exchange rate was in the 800s, by xmas time that year it was around 2000.

a year before lehman brothers collapsed the exchange rate was around 900. after the collapse it was in the 1500's.

better get used to wild fluctuations. you'll sleep better.


I was here then, and it was like lemmings!!! Everyone was jumping on a boat or plane to leave Korea!! I was lucky in that I didn't have student loans/credit card debt to pay off. Schools would pay just about anything to keep teachers here!

As for the whole NK flap. Well, there's not one damn thing that WE can do about it. I was here for every "incident" since 1996....and there have been a LOT of them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_border_incidents_involving_North_Korea#1990s

I don't worry about NK attacking. What I DO worry about is their antiquated systems!!! Back in 2010, they bombed a supermarket on Yeonpyeong island, thinking it was a military post...which it used to be! I wish they'd use Goggle Maps!! Smile
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ajuma wrote:
slothrop wrote:
That's not a swing!LOL
in the spring of 1997 the exchange rate was in the 800s, by xmas time that year it was around 2000.

a year before lehman brothers collapsed the exchange rate was around 900. after the collapse it was in the 1500's.

better get used to wild fluctuations. you'll sleep better.


I was here then, and it was like lemmings!!! Everyone was jumping on a boat or plane to leave Korea!! I was lucky in that I didn't have student loans/credit card debt to pay off. Schools would pay just about anything to keep teachers here!

As for the whole NK flap. Well, there's not one damn thing that WE can do about it. I was here for every "incident" since 1996....and there have been a LOT of them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_border_incidents_involving_North_Korea#1990s

I don't worry about NK attacking. What I DO worry about is their antiquated systems!!! Back in 2010, they bombed a supermarket on Yeonpyeong island, thinking it was a military post...which it used to be! I wish they'd use Goggle Maps!! Smile


I was there too and that was not a swing, it was a collapse of the Won, a collapse of EPIC proportion like the currency losing around HALF its exchange value.

What happened in 2010 was, by comparison a currency hiccup.

Also WT, I know you wanted to say you lost money and I know that can be frustrating but man, you lost a 1000 bucks or so but 46 people DIED in that sinking....so lets not get all shrill with losing a few bucks.

As for what is happening now, what IS worrisome is that the NK backed out of a long standing non-aggression treaty, cut the direct phone line with Seoul and is doing a lot of sabre rattling. They are backed in a corner in many ways because China backed up the UN resolution for sanctions.

I do not see this leading to war but that is just my opinion. Basic precautions for expats would include:

registering with your embassy if that is not done already
contacting your embassy to figure out what the procedures are in case of conflict.

Except for that, not much you can do really.

What we worry about (wife and I) is our family in Korea: her parents, her brother and his 3 kids...my Korean friends and expat friends in Korea...
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slothrop



Joined: 03 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 6:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by slothrop on Sun Apr 07, 2013 4:15 am; edited 5 times in total
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ajuma



Joined: 18 Feb 2003
Location: Anywere but Seoul!!

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 6:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PatrickGHBusan: What I've seen about "What to do if there is a war" is to go to your nearest US military base.

EXCUSE ME???? You want me to GO to the place where the NK forces will target??? I think not!!! I'll stay where I am and hope for the best!
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T-J



Joined: 10 Oct 2008
Location: Seoul EunpyungGu Yonshinnae

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 6:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote


I've seen the NK rhetoric go up and down since '91. Nothing during the last 22 years compares to the spring / summer of '94.

There is no sense in getting worked up about it. This too will more than likely pass.

That being said there are things everyone living in Korea should do to be ready in case.

As others have mentioned, register with your embassy. It only takes a minute and could save all sorts of red tape at precisely the moment you can least afford to deal with it.

Listen to official communications and react accordingly. This doesn't mean obsessing over the news, just keep an ear to the ground.

Know the plan. Understand where you are supposed to be and have at least two plans for how to get there. If you have family this would include where you meet in the event of something sudden happening.

Finally, have a "go bag". This can be a full fledged survival kit but at the least it should have passports, vital docs, and some water.

Be sure to contact home and reassure everyone that there is nothing to worry about. CNN is playing this up more than it probably needs to be and folks back home will be concerned.
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

slothrop wrote:
1997 was a swing in the sense that it came back. like a swing. weeee!
the won has traditionally lost half it's value every few years since the second south korean won was created in the early 60's. i think it started out at like 120 to the dollar. so technically, losing half it's value every few years has been the norm. the fact that it came close to 1997 value ten years later in 2007 was the exception or 'epic event'.


It took months for the Won to recover in 1997-1998. When it did recover it was not at the previous level. Then it kind of stabilized for a couple of years. I do not remember a 50% devaluation happening in a short term since 1997, but could be wrong.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

very good advice by t-j.

probably not war and probably will blow over but there is always the 'crazy factor"

i would worry more about a bombing or raid than a full scale invasion but does not hurt to be ready.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

very good advice by t-j.

probably not war and probably will blow over but there is always the 'crazy factor"

i would worry more about a bombing or raid than a full scale invasion but does not hurt to be ready.
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spilot101



Joined: 05 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was stationed at Camp Red Cloud back in 99-00. They always told us that we were just the buffer zone for Seoul, and would probably be wiped out by the North in a matter of hours (until real help arrived).
I remember being put on alert and told that we're going to war, after the submarine incident in the summer of 99 (doesn't mean that my buddy and I didn't exploit a hole under the fence, escaping from our base to Seoul to get trashed anyways lol, running for our lives from the military police that caught on to our plan - that was just another weekend). Although you do to tend to party A LOT harder when there is a chance that there may not be tomorrow. Fun times.
On a positive note, looks like there'll be less competition for us, "noobs" trying to make it to Korea in the next few months, which is just what I need!
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nuthatch



Joined: 21 Feb 2008

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

with regard to the March 11 date, etc., this was in today's New York Times:

Also Friday, North Korea said it was also nullifying all denuclearization agreements with South Korea and cutting off the North-South hot line, in retaliation for the United Nations sanctions and the joint military exercises South Korea is staging with the United States.

In the last few days, North Korea’s state-run news media have carried a slew of official remarks threatening to launch “pre-emptive nuclear strikes” at Washington and Seoul with “lighter and smaller nukes,” hinting that the country has built nuclear warheads small enough to mount on long-range missiles....

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/09/world/asia/north-korea-sanctions.html?ref=world&_r=0

the hard copy (as opposed to the current online copy) also states that "...earlier this week NK declared the 1953 armistice null and void as of next Monday and threatened to turn Washington and Seoul into 'a sea in flames' with 'lighter and smaller nukes.'"
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

javis wrote:
I figured he was referring to the shelling of Yeonpyeong-do, which in fact did precipitate a sudden swing in the exchange rate.

Nov 16 1136.3637
Nov 17 1142.8572
Nov 18 1132.5028
Nov 19 1135.0737
Nov 20 1135.0737
Nov 21 1135.0737
Nov 22 1127.3958
Nov 23 1137.6564 <--- YP-do shelling
Nov 24 1149.4253
Nov 25 1149.4253
Nov 26 1154.7344
Nov 27 1154.7344
Nov 28 1154.7344
Nov 29 1164.1444
Nov 30 1161.4402

But then he started backpeddling, and changing his story, so I have no idea.


Whatever, brah. The ship sinking was a big deal: 46 people died.

The ship sinking had a great impact on the won: it lost more of its value, though not immediately.

I care about how much money I lose.

Whether it happens immediately or takes a while (and then happens suddenly) matters not. What I care about is how much will I lose.

Done accusing me of lying and making things up?

Asking yourself this: which of the two incidents (over time) caused the greatest weaking of the won? The first one did.
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilot101 wrote:
On a positive note, looks like there'll be less competition for us, "noobs" trying to make it to Korea in the next few months, which is just what I need!

That depends on how furiously SteelRails tries to convince everyone North Korea is not a threat.
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spilot101



Joined: 05 Sep 2012

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sure the Western media will prove him wrong.... Home Depot is gonna make a killing on this one.
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Rteacher



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA

PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On a lighter note, Stephen Colbert's take on our "Dreams Race" with North Korea ... http://news.yahoo.com/stephen-colbert-propaganda-fever-dream-north-korea-140155155.html

Some South Koreans (and EFL teachers) reactions to NK threats: http://news.yahoo.com/skoreans-learn-live-nkorean-war-threats-083550641.html
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