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60 Minutes China's Real Estate Bubble 3-3-13
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Los Angeloser



Joined: 26 Aug 2010
Location: Korea

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 5:28 am    Post subject: 60 Minutes China's Real Estate Bubble 3-3-13 Reply with quote

It's over, but they still think prices will always go up. It's all make believe, surreal, and everywhere. The debt crises is starting.

China's Empty Cities: Satellite Images are Shocking
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjOuDmy1ybE
"China's notorious ghost cities are a disaster waiting to happen, according to a new report from CBS News' "60 Minutes." Take it from the CEO of Vanke, the country's largest residential real estate developer, who tells the news program that developers are deep in debt, projects are being abandoned, and things could get ugly fast. The nightmare scenario could be like America's housing crash but worse.

"It's like walking into a forest of skyscrapers, but they're all empty," financial analyst Gillem Tulloch said of another ghost city, Chenggong. We're taking this occasion to check with satellite imagery on China's most famous empty developments. Of course things may be better than they seem. Yale's Stephen Roach argues that China is experiencing "the greatest urbanization story the world has ever seen," and that these ghost cities will soon become "thriving metropolitan areas."
Scroll down for images:
http://realestate.aol.com/blog/2013/03/05/china-empty-cities-photos/#photoID-5685995?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl3%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D279016

But what does China's female Zhang Xin: Another Chinese real estate mogul say about criticizing the Chinese gov't?
'Did she really just say that? Xin on democracy'
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504803_162-57572227-10391709/did-she-really-just-say-that-xin-on-democracy/
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Was bound to happen. Corruption in construction coupled with real estate speculation and artificially inflated prices was always going to lead to this.

Korea is in many ways, in the same real estate boat.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many cities hundreds of millions of dollars in debt. They tried to gradually deflate the bubble but there is the black loans from shylocks. The central government has kept back the flood b ut the dam is breaking. The two year drop in GDP, declining manufacturing and greed combined with stupidity. Right now the only thing holding things together is that the U.S. economy is doing fairly well.

No one really knows how many bad loans are on the books of banks but the number is probably over a trillion dollars. Since many loans are off the books who knows.
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slothrop



Joined: 03 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by slothrop on Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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KimchiNinja



Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They've got the cash. What are they gonna do, buy US bonds? LOL
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This could still go pretty well for China.
They blame the crash on evil corporations and financial institutions. They use it as an excuse to devalue their currency (QUANTITATIVE EASING TIME!), bail out the major institutions, and set up the massive underclass with nice apartments.

The middle class will collapse, but with the newly housed poor on their side the government may weather it well enough.
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young_clinton



Joined: 09 Sep 2009

PostPosted: Sat Mar 09, 2013 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is not good. It will affect the economy in the West too.
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lemak



Joined: 02 Jan 2011

PostPosted: Sat Mar 09, 2013 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are a lot of theories that China keeps constructing infrastructure and buildings that aren't needed (highways and bridges to nowhere, empty malls etc.) because the government worries about the idea of having up to 100 million uneducated, provincial construction workers suddenly unemployed and rioting in the tier 1 cities. Doesn't look good for the government as top story on CNN. Better to take a loss and maintain the image of an economic superpower.

The old Australian Prime Minister, Paul Keating once said you can tell the state of a country's economy by climbing to the top of a tall building and counting the number of cranes on the skyline. I'd wager the average Chinese *city* has more construction going on than the entire *country* of South Korea. Alas it's a little misleading. I feel sorry for the "little people" being tossed from their houses and hutongs (which their family has sometimes lived in for hundreds of years) to make way for empty apartment complexes constructed for millionaires to own as their 4th or 5th investment property. Even in my city in China, one of the richest in the country it's ominous at night time to drive through entire neighborhoods of apartments where there are just a handful of lights shining from inside. Almost completely unoccupied.

I think there are dark times ahead for China's economy and it's going to affect most of us - whether we live in the PRC, US, ROK, Europe etc. when it comes.
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Swampfox10mm



Joined: 24 Mar 2011

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the Chinese gov't will just throw their hands up one day and promise every family a free apartment, pitting the rich against the poor in a civil war while the top officials bail to Europe.

Laughing
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Swampfox10mm wrote:
I think the Chinese gov't will just throw their hands up one day and promise every family a free apartment, pitting the rich against the poor in a civil war while the top officials bail to Europe.

Laughing


Maybe in 2068 when the first cascade of land-use licenses begin to expire.
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KimchiNinja



Joined: 01 May 2012
Location: Gangnam

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lemak wrote:
I think there are dark times ahead for China's economy and it's going to affect most of us - whether we live in the PRC, US, ROK, Europe etc. when it comes.


I actually think there are dark times ahead for the US and CHINA is where you want to be when it comes. They will figure it out.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe if China changed their land ownership rules so a buyer actually owns the land, it might convince the Chinese to buy property in these cities.
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slothrop



Joined: 03 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

edit

Last edited by slothrop on Mon Jun 10, 2013 7:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 2:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the telltale signs is the buying up of property in Canada and the U.s. by wealthy chinese. Vancouver is a prime example. Canadians know a lot more about this but there is a reason tha Vancouver is called Hong couver by many. Vancouver is just one example
a collapse of china would send the whole world into financial crisis.

I just do not see how the house of cards can last. already the construction slowdown is creating problems for the migrant construction workers. Tremendous debt to build apartments that will never be sold or rented. Un sustainable

Remember this is the longest peaceful period in China's recent history. That can not last. China is not easy to govern.

the nationalist lost power when their economic boom petered out and inflation took off. sound familiar.

But everyone is always saying that China is about to collapse and they muddle through. But I truly think it is coming to an end. too many forces at play, demographics, economics, a better informed middle class.
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2i2dk1ny2i3



Joined: 26 Jun 2011

PostPosted: Sun Apr 07, 2013 11:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for sharing

being back in America, thought there was a wealth gap here until you see something like this and see how great the gap really is between rich and poor in 2nd and 3rd world countries

whats worse is China isn't either of the latter but it does show the true light of Communism and how harsh it can be
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