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The Scottish independence referendum.
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Fox



Joined: 04 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Fri Feb 14, 2014 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If the Scots really want to be part of the EU, then I'm inclined to agree that it makes more sense to simply remain a part of the UK. In fact, breaking away from the UK only to turn around and try to independently rejoin the EU seems almost bizarre.
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Chaparrastique



Joined: 01 Jan 2014

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fox wrote:
If the Scots really want to be part of the EU, then I'm inclined to agree that it makes more sense to simply remain a part of the UK.


Rep of Irelands economy was dominated by London for centuries.

Nobody ever thought that they would be able to stand on their own two feet.


After they threw off the UK and joined the EU, they became the celtic tiger.


Scotland could do the same, but they will never know unless they try. I'm all in favour of them going ahead with this experiment.

Time for them to grow up.
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Fox



Joined: 04 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chaparrastique wrote:

After they threw off the UK and joined the EU, they became the celtic tiger.


So you're suggesting Scotland become Europe's next high unemployment tax shelter?
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aq8knyus



Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London

PostPosted: Sat Feb 15, 2014 10:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chaparrastique wrote:
Fox wrote:
If the Scots really want to be part of the EU, then I'm inclined to agree that it makes more sense to simply remain a part of the UK.


Rep of Irelands economy was dominated by London for centuries.

Nobody ever thought that they would be able to stand on their own two feet.


After they threw off the UK and joined the EU, they became the celtic tiger.


Scotland could do the same, but they will never know unless they try. I'm all in favour of them going ahead with this experiment.

Time for them to grow up.


Ireland did eventually stand on its own two feet, but only after decades of pain and volatility. They eventually threw their lot in with the EU and even that didn't bring stability.

The problem with these small economies is that they write checks that their economies cant back up. They are more prone to boom and bust cycles as evidenced by Ireland over the past half century. Their unemployment figures are similarly up and down with deep troughs.

The big worry for the UK is that just as we had to bail out the Irish to the tune of billions we will also have to rescue Scotland when its tiny economy is incapable of backing up its losses.

Remember that the Scots debt share will be around 72% of its GDP, around 126 billion according to the SNP. Their new currency will need huge reserves of sterling to back this fragile untried currency, significantly weakening their public finances. It is a certainty that the cost of borrowing for every Scot will increase significantly.

They will also be outside of the EU for a couple of years at least and before membership they will have to be on the Eurozone's ERM as a precondition to joining the Euro.

The Irish economy is in a better position than Scotland because its cheif import/export partner is actually the US. Whether Scotland can match this or will continue to be so heavily dependent on the UK remains to be seen.

At the end of the day the scottish economy is big enough to allow them to survive. However, the SNP are lying when they say it will be a seamless process. Economically it will be a very difficult and painful change for many years. If the Scottish people go into this with their eyes open fair enough, they will get through the storm, but if they think it is going to be a simple matter of flag swapping they are in for the shock of their lives.
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Smithington



Joined: 14 Dec 2011

PostPosted: Sun Feb 16, 2014 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chaparrastique wrote:
Fox wrote:
If the Scots really want to be part of the EU, then I'm inclined to agree that it makes more sense to simply remain a part of the UK.


Rep of Irelands economy was dominated by London for centuries. Nobody ever thought that they would be able to stand on their own two feet. After they threw off the UK and joined the EU, they became the celtic tiger..


LOL. How's that celtic tiger thing working out for them? Not so great. For most of its time outside of the UK, the Irish Free State / Eire / Republic of Ireland has had an awful economy. In fact, several governments, notably that of de Valera, were opposed to modernization, fearing its threat to traditional Catholic life and rural values. To say that Ireland boomed outside the UK is absurd. From an economic standpoint it would have been much better off staying within the UK. True, it had a remarkable boom in the 1990s (more than seven decades after leaving the UK) but even that was temporary. Once again the economy is a mess and people are emigrating at record levels. Hardly a success story.

Scottish nationalists might want to look elsewhere for inspiration. If anything the Irish economic debacle will only serve to increase the 'No' vote in Scotland. And that's a good thing.
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PigeonFart



Joined: 27 Apr 2006

PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A few re-runs of 'Braveheart' on scottish TV will have more influence on a Yes vote than any other means.

I'd like to see Scotland, Quebec, and Taiwan become independent, and for Belgium to split along the French and Dutch speaking lines. I'm all for any exciting change. If it makes a good news story, then i'm in. As for the pros and cons for each citizen, that's up to them to do their homework. I will be watching with interest this September.
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Smithington



Joined: 14 Dec 2011

PostPosted: Tue Mar 04, 2014 8:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chaparrastique wrote:
After they threw off the UK and joined the EU, they became the celtic tiger.


Son, you really need to stop posting on Ireland-related issues. Southern Ireland "threw off" the UK in 1920. Yet, most of the 20th century passed without Ireland growing a strong economy. Moreover, it was over 50 years later that it joined the EU - and it did so on the very same day that the UK joined. Hardly a case of "throwing off the UK and joining the EU." Even then it took almost another 30 years for Irish economy to boom - and even that was temporary. It's now back to being bailed out by the EU and (yes) by Britain. No wonder the people of Northern Ireland are less than enthusiastic about joining the Republic. It's record of economic hardship is not to be envied.
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jazzmaster



Joined: 30 Sep 2013

PostPosted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whichever way the Scots vote, they will have decided it amongst themselves. That will surely be a source of pride for them.
It's also comical how the English parties are trying to scare the Scots into a 'no' vote.
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NohopeSeriously



Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: The Christian Right-Wing Educational Republic of Korea

PostPosted: Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An independent republic in Scotland will be very close to Scandinavian countries. The Scottish law (mixed Common law and Civil law) will likely have a strong Scandinavian influence, too.
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aq8knyus



Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London

PostPosted: Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jazzmaster wrote:
Whichever way the Scots vote, they will have decided it amongst themselves. That will surely be a source of pride for them.
It's also comical how the English parties are trying to scare the Scots into a 'no' vote.


What do you mean 'English Parties'? All three main parties are UK parties, this is especially true for the Labour party which has numerous MPs from Scotland.

The only scaremongering is that spread by the SNP which seems to think that they can unilaterally declare a currency union for RUK and then threaten to welch on their debts if their demands are not met.

Telling the Scottish people that independence means you are indeed on your own and that there will be no currency union and no automatic membership of the EU, is simply being honest with the electorate. As is the fact that an economy the size of New Zealand will not be able to support a financial services industry worth over 750 billion GBP.

I have respect for nationalists who declare that they will accept any cost as long they get independence. I have no respect for unserious politicians within the SNP who maintain that independence will be a smooth process with no consequences and no major changes.
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Chaparrastique



Joined: 01 Jan 2014

PostPosted: Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They would do better economically to join Russia than the EU.


They would have to hold a referendum first, of course.
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aq8knyus



Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London

PostPosted: Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NohopeSeriously wrote:
An independent republic in Scotland will be very close to Scandinavian countries. The Scottish law (mixed Common law and Civil law) will likely have a strong Scandinavian influence, too.


An independent Scotland would be dominated politically, culturally and economically by the RUK. Around half the scottish population has family in the RUK and in every conceivable way their culture and language are almost indenticle to those south of the border.

There is more regional divergence between North West Scotland and Edinburgh than there is between Edinburgh and London.

Furthermore, they are not planning on becoming a social democratic Nordic country, they are planning steep tax cuts, most notably corporation tax. They also plan on keeping the Queen, so no republic either.
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aq8knyus



Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London

PostPosted: Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chaparrastique wrote:
They would do better economically to join Russia than the EU.


They would have to hold a referendum first, of course.


By what measure?

Russia is only slightly above the very poorest members of the EU economically.
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jazzmaster



Joined: 30 Sep 2013

PostPosted: Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What do you mean 'English Parties'? All three main parties are UK parties, this is especially true for the Labour party which has numerous MPs from Scotland.

The only scaremongering is that spread by the SNP which seems to think that they can unilaterally declare a currency union for RUK and then threaten to welch on their debts if their demands are not met.

Telling the Scottish people that independence means you are indeed on your own and that there will be no currency union and no automatic membership of the EU, is simply being honest with the electorate. As is the fact that an economy the size of New Zealand will not be able to support a financial services industry worth over 750 billion GBP.

I have respect for nationalists who declare that they will accept any cost as long they get independence. I have no respect for unserious politicians within the SNP who maintain that independence will be a smooth process with no consequences and no major changes.


http://news.stv.tv/politics/266188-osborne-not-serious-on-blocking-currency-union-says-crawford-beveridge/
So some people are saying the chancellor is 'not serious'.

A prime minister begging Scotland to stay in the UK, but delivering the speech from England. Is just one sign of how England orientated the other parties are. The Lib Dems jumping into bed with the Tories at the smallest wiff of power also shows that they're a sell out, England obsessed party. Need I mention Poll tax?

Quote:
There is more regional divergence between North West Scotland and Edinburgh than there is between Edinburgh and London.

Laughing
What a load of rubbish. Have you been outside the tourist dominated centre of Edinburgh to talk with the locals? I doubt it. This is the kind of crap that could come straight from Westminster.

For the record, I don't think Scotland will vote for independence, but I think the way the English have campaigned, and posts like yours, show that England fears Scotland leaving and is jealous that the Scots are taking their matters into their own hands.
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young_clinton



Joined: 09 Sep 2009

PostPosted: Sat Mar 08, 2014 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whatever Scotland decides it should be economically sound. Scotland entered a union with England as an absolutely destitute nation, the poorest in Europe. It would not be a good idea to return to that. Laughing
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