|
Korean Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
|
 Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:53 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
While they might be preparing, defense ministries always roll out puffed up threats so they can get funding. "North Korea preparing for war and reunification" has been every minute of every day since 1950.
Anyways, since Kim Jong Il's death in all likelihood North Korea has been ruled by some cabal of the military, party members, an industry man or two, intelligence, interior ministry, and the ministry of propaganda.
Also, any war being prepared for might well be internal. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Steelrails wrote: |
While they might be preparing, defense ministries always roll out puffed up threats so they can get funding. "North Korea preparing for war and reunification" has been every minute of every day since 1950.
Anyways, since Kim Jong Il's death in all likelihood North Korea has been ruled by some cabal of the military, party members, an industry man or two, intelligence, interior ministry, and the ministry of propaganda.
Also, any war being prepared for might well be internal. |
That article really didn't say anything. North Korea is a 'military first' society, so they've been increasing funding of the military over everything for quite a while. Also, in terms of actual provocations, they've been really quiet recently in terms of no attacks on South Korea or big tests.
There are three centers of power in North Korean society- The KPA (army), KWP (bureaucracy), and the Kim family and close friends. I'd say the Kim family is still pretty solidly in control, but it has to mind those two other constituents. The father, Kim Jong Il was a pretty reclusive dude, so I still think we are reading more into this than there actually is. None of the people I know who know this issue well and have worked on this issue over time are reading that much into it.
Here is a good piece: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/08/kim-jong-un-north-korea-coup |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:07 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| The thing that I am noticing more and more is that all these articles that are coming out are by generalists, and sure the sources are reputable enough, but none of the authors seem to know that much about North Korea or have a good sense of context to put their speculation in. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:26 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Hopefully, the context won't be Korean War 2 - as a prelude to World War 3... |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
guavashake
Joined: 09 Nov 2013
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 9:17 pm Post subject: |
|
|
The article claims their military to be obsolete based partially on the fact that 3 of their military aircraft crashed in one year.
If you search today's news, you can see that a USA military jet crashed today, and it isn't the first one of the year, there are plenty more on other dates.
Based on the metrics used in the article about DPRK, you could say the same about USA. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 5:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
| guavashake wrote: |
The article claims their military to be obsolete based partially on the fact that 3 of their military aircraft crashed in one year.
If you search today's news, you can see that a USA military jet crashed today, and it isn't the first one of the year, there are plenty more on other dates.
Based on the metrics used in the article about DPRK, you could say the same about USA. |
The primary reason their aircraft are obsolete is because of what type. Also their accidents tend to be due to a lack of spare parts and/or the aircraft hitting 50 years of age. All air forces have accidents. Its the nature of the thing. However there are different reasons for those accidents. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Steelrails wrote: |
| guavashake wrote: |
The article claims their military to be obsolete based partially on the fact that 3 of their military aircraft crashed in one year.
If you search today's news, you can see that a USA military jet crashed today, and it isn't the first one of the year, there are plenty more on other dates.
Based on the metrics used in the article about DPRK, you could say the same about USA. |
The primary reason their aircraft are obsolete is because of what type. Also their accidents tend to be due to a lack of spare parts and/or the aircraft hitting 50 years of age. All air forces have accidents. Its the nature of the thing. However there are different reasons for those accidents. |
Considering how close they are to Seoul, how much artillery they have, their special forces (who are actually considered good to decent), and the sheer numbers, They could take Seoul fairly quickly and push down south fairly quickly. Looking at the U.S. trying to deal with ISIS shows the limitations of air warfare.
Their strategy would have to be one of pushing as hard as they can, as fast as they can, but after that who knows what would happen. I suppose they could try to hold what they take, or try to use the facts on the ground to try and negotiate some favorable settlement, but regardless it would be devastating. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Leon wrote: |
| Steelrails wrote: |
| guavashake wrote: |
The article claims their military to be obsolete based partially on the fact that 3 of their military aircraft crashed in one year.
If you search today's news, you can see that a USA military jet crashed today, and it isn't the first one of the year, there are plenty more on other dates.
Based on the metrics used in the article about DPRK, you could say the same about USA. |
The primary reason their aircraft are obsolete is because of what type. Also their accidents tend to be due to a lack of spare parts and/or the aircraft hitting 50 years of age. All air forces have accidents. Its the nature of the thing. However there are different reasons for those accidents. |
Considering how close they are to Seoul, how much artillery they have, their special forces (who are actually considered good to decent), and the sheer numbers, They could take Seoul fairly quickly and push down south fairly quickly. Looking at the U.S. trying to deal with ISIS shows the limitations of air warfare.
Their strategy would have to be one of pushing as hard as they can, as fast as they can, but after that who knows what would happen. I suppose they could try to hold what they take, or try to use the facts on the ground to try and negotiate some favorable settlement, but regardless it would be devastating. |
The Norks could do a lot of damage, no doubt.
However, taking Seoul 'fairly quickly' would require a herculean effort.
They would have to overcome the entire ROK standing army before the huge mass of ROK reserves were mobilised. Not to mention complete their conquest before the US could send significant forces from Japan and the US itself.
To take Seoul before ROK mobilization and US reinforcements would mean they would have to overcome the standing army of the ROK, the combined airpower of the ROK airforce and US 7th airforce in a less than a few days.
Not likely, especially as the NK forces would have their logistics and command centres destroyed or severely dislocated immediately after the beginning of hostilities. Also they would need huge supplies beforehand, something which is unlikely to go unnoticed.
Frankly if they even make it to Paju in that time, they deserve a lot of credit. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:56 am Post subject: |
|
|
| aq8knyus wrote: |
However, taking Seoul 'fairly quickly' would require a herculean effort.
They would have to overcome the entire ROK standing army before the huge mass of ROK reserves were mobilised. Not to mention complete their conquest before the US could send significant forces from Japan and the US itself.
To take Seoul before ROK mobilization and US reinforcements would mean they would have to overcome the standing army of the ROK, the combined airpower of the ROK airforce and US 7th airforce in a less than a few days.
Not likely, especially as the NK forces would have their logistics and command centres destroyed or severely dislocated immediately after the beginning of hostilities. Also they would need huge supplies beforehand, something which is unlikely to go unnoticed.
Frankly if they even make it to Paju in that time, they deserve a lot of credit. |
Considering it took the US Army over a month to take the city of Hue, with a population of 200,000 during the Vietnam War. It would be pretty hard to take Seoul 'fairly quickly'. And I'd assume most Seoulites would be pretty hostile to an aggressive NK Army.
The number of high rise apartment buildings, and each window being a potential spot for snipers.
Anyways, I highly doubt NK would ever attack. Because if they did, I'd bet a good number of their rank & file soldiers would drop their guns when they see how affluent SK is. The last time NK even considered attacking somewhere with significant population was probably way back in the 80's. There is a reason NK only shell sparsely populated islands off in the middle of nowhere. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:53 am Post subject: |
|
|
| jvalmer wrote: |
| aq8knyus wrote: |
However, taking Seoul 'fairly quickly' would require a herculean effort.
They would have to overcome the entire ROK standing army before the huge mass of ROK reserves were mobilised. Not to mention complete their conquest before the US could send significant forces from Japan and the US itself.
To take Seoul before ROK mobilization and US reinforcements would mean they would have to overcome the standing army of the ROK, the combined airpower of the ROK airforce and US 7th airforce in a less than a few days.
Not likely, especially as the NK forces would have their logistics and command centres destroyed or severely dislocated immediately after the beginning of hostilities. Also they would need huge supplies beforehand, something which is unlikely to go unnoticed.
Frankly if they even make it to Paju in that time, they deserve a lot of credit. |
Considering it took the US Army over a month to take the city of Hue, with a population of 200,000 during the Vietnam War. It would be pretty hard to take Seoul 'fairly quickly'. And I'd assume most Seoulites would be pretty hostile to an aggressive NK Army.
The number of high rise apartment buildings, and each window being a potential spot for snipers.
Anyways, I highly doubt NK would ever attack. Because if they did, I'd bet a good number of their rank & file soldiers would drop their guns when they see how affluent SK is. The last time NK even considered attacking somewhere with significant population was probably way back in the 80's. There is a reason NK only shell sparsely populated islands off in the middle of nowhere. |
I don't think they would attack, but as a function of surprise, tunnels, shelling, overwhelming force and the fact that the distance is so small, the Norks could take Seoul, or at least parts of it, relatively quickly. It takes time to mobilize armies and organize a response. Holding is different, but the North's armed forces are well designed for a quick land attack against a target as close as Seoul. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:05 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Leon wrote: |
| jvalmer wrote: |
| aq8knyus wrote: |
However, taking Seoul 'fairly quickly' would require a herculean effort.
They would have to overcome the entire ROK standing army before the huge mass of ROK reserves were mobilised. Not to mention complete their conquest before the US could send significant forces from Japan and the US itself.
To take Seoul before ROK mobilization and US reinforcements would mean they would have to overcome the standing army of the ROK, the combined airpower of the ROK airforce and US 7th airforce in a less than a few days.
Not likely, especially as the NK forces would have their logistics and command centres destroyed or severely dislocated immediately after the beginning of hostilities. Also they would need huge supplies beforehand, something which is unlikely to go unnoticed.
Frankly if they even make it to Paju in that time, they deserve a lot of credit. |
Considering it took the US Army over a month to take the city of Hue, with a population of 200,000 during the Vietnam War. It would be pretty hard to take Seoul 'fairly quickly'. And I'd assume most Seoulites would be pretty hostile to an aggressive NK Army.
The number of high rise apartment buildings, and each window being a potential spot for snipers.
Anyways, I highly doubt NK would ever attack. Because if they did, I'd bet a good number of their rank & file soldiers would drop their guns when they see how affluent SK is. The last time NK even considered attacking somewhere with significant population was probably way back in the 80's. There is a reason NK only shell sparsely populated islands off in the middle of nowhere. |
I don't think they would attack, but as a function of surprise, tunnels, shelling, overwhelming force and the fact that the distance is so small, the Norks could take Seoul, or at least parts of it, relatively quickly. It takes time to mobilize armies and organize a response. Holding is different, but the North's armed forces are well designed for a quick land attack against a target as close as Seoul. |
That would definitely be possible for towns closer to the border.
Whilst mobilization does take time, so does breaking through an army of nearly half a million. I am not saying it is impossbile, but it is very, very unlikely. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Pinehurst
Joined: 14 Aug 2011
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 4:18 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Leon wrote: |
| The thing that I am noticing more and more is that all these articles that are coming out are by generalists, and sure the sources are reputable enough, but none of the authors seem to know that much about North Korea or have a good sense of context to put their speculation in. |
VICE Media got their notoriety from reporting on North Korea. They are the ones who went to cover Rodman. I was surprised that NK let any of the VICE team in after their early documentary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24R8JObNNQ4 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
aq8knyus
Joined: 28 Jul 2010
Location: London
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 6:19 am Post subject: |
|
|
Kim Jong-un 'no show' increases N Korea speculation
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29563837
He didn't turn up for the all important Party Founding Day....
It is not definitive proof of anything, but it is does suggest that there is something very serious happening in NK. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
