Joined: 10 Oct 2005
|Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2005 4:31 pm Post subject: 2008 — start of Greater Depression or Mad Max?
|Who agrees with Roscoe Bartlett’s take on “peak oil”?
Roscoe Bartlett was one of the first politicians in the world to get that peak oil is very, very serious. In brief, “peak oil” is the oil industry term that describes the maximum oil we will ever produce in a given year, after which oil production declines… producing a PERMANENT 1970’s oil crisis. It is the end of cheap oil for three reasons.
1/ There will be less oil quantity.
2/ There will be less oil quality (the age of sweet oil is turning sour. Sour, high sulphur oil takes more energy to process into petroleum products we can use, and is more expensive.)
3/ The oil will be in less accessible places like deep sea or frozen tundra. We have picked all the “low hanging fruit” and now it’s time to really work for the oil that we do get.
These three factors could see oil double, and double again in price. Is anyone going to be driving when it costs $300 to fill a small car?
So when will oil production peak?
Maybe this year, many say 2008… and then it all starts.
How bad will it get? This is where the debate really heats up, and where Roscoe Bartlett surprises me.
You see, he has a background in science and farming, and is uniquely placed to understand the many ways in which oil depletion will affect the industrialized world.
|Now serving his seventh term in the United States House of Representatives, Roscoe G. Bartlett considers himself a citizen-legislator, not a politician. Prior to his election to Congress, he pursued successful careers as a professor, research scientist and inventor, small business owner, and farmer. He was first elected in 1992 to represent Maryland's Sixth District.
http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/people/roscoe_bartlett (For more of his biography).
If anyone was going to understand the risks of the end of cheap oil, it was a guy who’s been involved in science, farming, and war.
So which peak oil expert does he keep quoting to the US Congress, or everywhere else he speaks?
Roscoe Bartlett, with all his experience as a scientist and farmer chooses to quote Matt Savinar who writes,
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
(from Matt Savinar’s LATOC… Life After The Oil Crash!)
The reason I point this out is that LATOC is the website that originally scared me witless about this subject. I have since spent a year or more studying it, and have a slightly different perspective. But what do you think?
Is peak oil a TEOTWAWKI event — “The End Of The World As We Know It?” Is it “Dear Reader, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon?”
Or might it just mean a slight recession?
If you are going to take that position, keep in mind that an Australian State MP, Andrew McNamara, has just been running a peak oil taskforce and has admitted in an interview that he does not think anything can run the airlines after the end of cheap oil. Just the airlines becoming bankrupt will have an enormous impact on the world economy, with flow on effects to the world’s largest source of jobs… tourism. Hotel chains, tourist destinations, local growers supplying hotels, taxicabs, zoos, restaurants, services… everything will take a severe economic hit when oil peaks and the airlines go down.
The other thing Andrew McNamara mentions is food. This is going to mean the end of industrial agriculture, and the end of cheap transport. Food will have to be grown more locally to cities.
Even Australia’s celebrity scientist, “Dr Karl” thinks we are on the peak (but don’t quote him as being a “Doomer”. He’s an incurable optimist when it comes to all things science — and thinks that ours might be the last generation that has to die! Now that’s optimism! At least he backs up the peak oil concept.)
So, what do people think? Is it going to be “Mad Max” or not an issue at all? Please feel free to reply with any comments or questions.
Roscoe’s statements to Congress about Peak Oil, and more of his biography can be found here.
2008 — World oil production begins to decline,
stockmarkets crash, airlines bankrupt, and the
Greater Depression begins
www.eclipsenow.org — Welcome to the end of the oil age!