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kimo
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
Posts: 668
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 Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 6:59 am Post subject: "Hold onto your hat, Chicken Little. And buy gold." |
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What would you do if it all came crashing down where you are? Say, for example, there was a major natural disaster, rebellion or war between states. Do you have a contingency plan? What would the local government do? Would anarchy rule? Could your own government help you and get you home safely? Would you just try to ride it out? How safe would you feel?
The following link may bore most of you, but as I read through it bells started ringing in my head, especially when I came across the excess influx of cash (M-3) by the U.S. Federal Reserve into the economy. In the past four weeks, the Fed has pumped $US155 billion into the system. Only once in history has there been more influx and that was the week after 9/11. Usually, surpluses are added to increase liquidity when a major event is expected. So now I'm thinking. What would I do in the event of great turmoil.?
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/106920/content.asp?menu=forecasts&dia=262004 |
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once again
Joined: 27 Jan 2003
Posts: 815
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| Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 10:54 am Post subject: |
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| I have a friend who is convinced there will be some major event/disaster/attack on the 11th June. Maybe he is right!! |
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Bindair Dundat
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Posts: 1123
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| Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 11:34 am Post subject: Re: "Hold onto your hat, Chicken Little. And buy gold.& |
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| kimo wrote: |
| Usually, surpluses are added to increase liquidity when a major event is expected. |
Such as an election in the midst of a sluggish economy?
The author of the web page implies that something ominous is coming:
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| One can draw no other conclusion except that the Fed is acting irresponsibly in its managing the money supply, in fulfilling its duty to "maintain a stable currency." I reject the notion that the Fed is acting irresponsibly. No, something is up, bigger than we have ever seen in the history of the United States. |
But he needs to reject the possibility that the Fed is acting irresponsibly. Why reject that conclusion? It is easy for me to believe that this is an election-year trick; it could also be Plan B in the wake of Alan G.'s failure to kick things into gear by lowering interest rates.
BD
BD |
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struelle
Joined: 16 May 2003
Posts: 2372
Location: Shanghai
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| Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: "Hold onto your hat, Chicken Little. And buy gold.& |
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| Quote: |
| What would you do if it all came crashing down where you are? Say, for example, there was a major natural disaster, rebellion or war between states. Do you have a contingency plan? |
I thought of this stuff during the SARS event last year, but rode through that unscathed. The issue then was that returning home to Canada would have been worse than staying in Shanghai. Having read reports and talked to friends who did this, not only were they quarantined upon arrival, but virtually shut out by friends and family out of public fear and ignorance.
Shanghai had SARS under control for the most part, but in the event that the situation had detiorated, I'd rather have stayed anyway. So, it was either face quarantine here or back home.
It's unlikely that future disasters could occur, but there uncertainties. The Taiwan issue and the overheating of the Chinese economy are two 'wildcards' as it were, but it would take more than that to send me out.
Steve |
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waxwing
Joined: 29 Jun 2003
Posts: 719
Location: China
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| Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 3:44 pm Post subject: Re: "Hold onto your hat, Chicken Little. And buy gold.& |
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| kimo wrote: |
What would you do if it all came crashing down where you are? Say, for example, there was a major natural disaster, rebellion or war between states. Do you have a contingency plan? What would the local government do? Would anarchy rule? Could your own government help you and get you home safely? Would you just try to ride it out? How safe would you feel?
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Being only a few hundred ks from Chechnya makes this a little more relevant for me than for some others (well not the guys and gals in Saudi..) but I don't see the problem.
People like us have:
-a foreign passport
-probably a credit card or similar access to funds
-foreign family and friends
Basically if something brews up, we can get out. Unlike the poor b***ards round here, we have options. I read a harrowing account of a Russian guy living in Grozny during the early 90s, he was an engineer but ended up risking his life driving taxis for bandits just so he could put 1 potato or something on his wife's table every night. And he couldn't leave 'cos the in-laws refused to move  .
About future catastrophes, what most concerns me is the possibility of a breakdown in law and order in Saudi Arabia. Developments are most disturbing. We could have anarchy right across (70/80?)% the world's primary remaining oil-reserves. |
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Lanza-Armonia
Joined: 04 Jan 2004
Posts: 525
Location: London, UK. Soon to be in Hamburg, Germany
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| Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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| ...and the negitivees arrive, right on schedule. Shame you guys can't run British Public Transportation... |
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ls650
Joined: 10 May 2003
Posts: 3484
Location: British Columbia
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| Posted: Sat Jun 05, 2004 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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Buy gold? With what?? I'm a TEFL teacher!  |
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Aramas
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 874
Location: Slightly left of Centre
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| Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2004 4:58 am Post subject: |
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Gold is a poor investment. It's currently worth about half of it's dollar value 30 years ago, and taking inflation into consideration, 30 year old gold is worth about 5 cents in the dollar.
Do what the Vatican have been doing for a thousand years or more - buy CBD real estate. |
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Bindair Dundat
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Posts: 1123
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| Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2004 5:59 am Post subject: |
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| Aramas wrote: |
Gold is a poor investment. It's currently worth about half of it's dollar value 30 years ago, and taking inflation into consideration, 30 year old gold is worth about 5 cents in the dollar.
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That means gold WAS a terrible investment. Past performance is no indication of future returns.
BD |
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Stephen Jones
Joined: 21 Feb 2003
Posts: 4124
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| Posted: Sun Jun 06, 2004 9:08 pm Post subject: |
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30 years ago gold was selling at $154 an ounce. The price now is $384 an ounce.
$1 at 1974 prices is worth 26 cents now. So your $1 of gold would be worth 66 cents at constant dollar prices. Rather a bad investiment, but nothing like as bad as Aramas suggests.
Incidentally if you had bought gold in 1967 it would have cost $35 as the price had remained stable for years. Allowing for inflation that means that your $1 of gold in 1967 is worth over $2 in 2004 at constant 1967 prices - a reasonable return on investment. |
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Aramas
Joined: 13 Feb 2004
Posts: 874
Location: Slightly left of Centre
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| Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2004 3:03 am Post subject: |
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My memory claims that gold was around $600 an ounce in the early '70's, but then my brain cells have been through a lot since then
Was there a large jump in price during the oil crisis or is my brain just becoming flatulent in it's old age? |
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kimo
Joined: 16 Feb 2003
Posts: 668
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| Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2004 9:15 am Post subject: |
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Aramas, your brain seems fine. I imagine though the rest of you, except your fingers, has gone flatulent.
"The Bretton Woods System, enacted in 1946 created a system of fixed exchange rates that allowed governments to sell their gold to the United States treasury at the price of $35/ounce. "The Bretton Woods system ended on August 15, 1971, when President Richard Nixon ended trading of gold at the fixed price of $35/ounce. At that point for the first time in history, formal links between the major world currencies and real commodities were severed". The gold standard has not been used in any major economy since that time."*
Sorry, but that's U.S. dollars. I am too arrogant of an American to provide conversion tables for those of you who prefer quotes in other currencies for that time period.
Gold prices did go very high at one point. As legalized gold ownership became a reality, demand accelerated and, less than five years later, gold spiked to over $US800 at the end of the inflationary 1970�s and 1980.
Now, those of you who are in a foreign country, let's go back to the original query. What would you do if all hell broke loose?
* http://economics.about.com/cs/money/a/gold_standard.htm |
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Bindair Dundat
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Posts: 1123
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| Posted: Mon Jun 07, 2004 1:43 pm Post subject: |
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| kimo wrote: |
Now, those of you who are in a foreign country, let's go back to the original query. What would you do if all hell broke loose?
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There's always somebody who wants us to stay on topic. 
What I would do would depend, of course, on where I was and on what "all hell" consisted of. The worst case I could imagine would be a door-to-door manhunt for people of my nationality or -uh - complexion, in which case I would arm myself and seek help from trusted neighbors.
In lesser (or less focused) emergencies, I would probably stay put until the initial crisis had passed, and then make my way to the U.S. mission. When at all possible, I routinely maintain contact with U.S. officials, regardless of which country I am in. Just gave them a call this morning, in fact. I let them know who I am, where I am, who I'm with, and what I'm doing. I also always keep a full tank of gas in the car and supplies of water and food on hand, just as a matter of course. And I keep lots of those pretty little U.S. dollars near at hand.
BD |
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zaneth
Joined: 31 Mar 2004
Posts: 545
Location: Between Russia and Germany
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| Posted: Wed Jun 09, 2004 8:40 am Post subject: |
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Some of us have in-laws that refuse to move as well.
A door to door manhunt? I'd be toast, everybody knows me. But there's lots of woods. Russias a big place and my wife's a back to the land freak.
Probably quit teaching english and start planting potatoes.
Maybe I'd run to the embassy, hard to say. The Orthodox Church might be a better bet. I know some monasteries nearby. And some of them have bigger walls than the US embassy.
It seems like even in the worst of times, a lot of people manage to get by somehow or another. Seems like people here have had a lot of practice at it. |
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Bindair Dundat
Joined: 04 Feb 2003
Posts: 1123
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| Posted: Wed Jun 09, 2004 8:50 pm Post subject: |
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| zaneth wrote: |
Maybe I'd run to the embassy, hard to say. The Orthodox Church might be a better bet. I know some monasteries nearby. And some of them have bigger walls than the US embassy.
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I'm thinking that the embassy has better access to airplanes than the Church. |
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