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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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 Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 5:05 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| kah5217 wrote: |
| thomthom wrote: |
It was 139� to �1 when I posted.. now it's 141�. I'll keep waiting!  |
That sounds a lot better than 87� to $1.  |
my next transfer home, I will lose around $280 because of this garbage.. %12 loss just for getting money to my brokerage account back home...
those of you cheering to swap money before coming to japan... you are going to LOSE money big time once you are here LIVING! assuming you aspire to save anything back home... this post makes no sense...
"WOW, I can't believe I just found a big bag of money near this bus stop!" later that evening to your friend... "I returned the money to the bus stop!" cool.. |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:00 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| stumptowny wrote: |
those of you cheering to swap money before coming to japan... you are going to LOSE money big time once you are here LIVING! assuming you aspire to save anything back home... this post makes no sense...
"WOW, I can't believe I just found a big bag of money near this bus stop!" later that evening to your friend... "I returned the money to the bus stop!" cool.. |
Well said!
To expand on that a little:
If you're moving money back and forth between currencies, you'll lose a fortune to broker's charges whatever happens.
So if you're coming to Japan for good, transfer all your money to Yen and keep it there. (Well ... maybe leave some at home as spending money for when you visit relatives.)
If you're planning to be here for just a year or two and then never come back, transfer just enough to get you to your first paycheck. (But make sure you have a backup plan in case your first paycheck doesn't arrive.)
And for those who aren't committed either way, I suggest you keep about half your savings in Yen and half in the other currency. Sure, you'll lose out on currency fluctuations -- that's the price of keeping your eggs in more than one basket. |
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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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| Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:36 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| stumptowny wrote: |
those of you cheering to swap money before coming to japan... you are going to LOSE money big time once you are here LIVING! assuming you aspire to save anything back home... this post makes no sense...
"WOW, I can't believe I just found a big bag of money near this bus stop!" later that evening to your friend... "I returned the money to the bus stop!" cool.. |
Well said!
To expand on that a little:
If you're moving money back and forth between currencies, you'll lose a fortune to broker's charges whatever happens.
So if you're coming to Japan for good, transfer all your money to Yen and keep it there. (Well ... maybe leave some at home as spending money for when you visit relatives.)
If you're planning to be here for just a year or two and then never come back, transfer just enough to get you to your first paycheck. (But make sure you have a backup plan in case your first paycheck doesn't arrive.)
And for those who aren't committed either way, I suggest you keep about half your savings in Yen and half in the other currency. Sure, you'll lose out on currency fluctuations -- that's the price of keeping your eggs in more than one basket. |
and to expand on that, if you are keen on profit, you really should be in the market right now, post fiscal cliff apocalypse and pre debt ceiling cliff to come in a couple months. FB, NFLX, GRPN, ZNGA to name a few... buy on a pull back/consolidation, use a stop loss/trailing stop and enjoy the ride! if you have no idea what I'm talking about, make your fortunes by, uh, exchanging currency. if you are gonna make money, don't do it with lemonade stand.. |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:56 pm Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
| So if you're coming to Japan for good, transfer all your money to Yen and keep it there. |
If one expects the yen to weaken significantly in the near future, why would one hold it just to avoid a one or two percent exchange charge? |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 12:01 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
| Pitarou wrote: |
| So if you're coming to Japan for good, transfer all your money to Yen and keep it there. |
If one expects the yen to weaken significantly in the near future, why would one hold it just to avoid a one or two percent exchange charge? |
There are two extra prices that you're not factoring:
First, unless you're moving major quantities of cash, buying and selling Yen costs rather more than the 1--2% you're quoting. Don't forget the hidden charge in the differential between the exchange rate you're quoted and the market spot rates that everyone is talking about here.
Second, the exchange rate is not guaranteed to follow your expectations. In theory, you can measure the "price" of this risk by checking the price of USD-JPY call options with a strike price at the current spot price (you can check recent prices here). That's a few more percent you're throwing away.
But the real risk is that, if the markets move against you, you end up desperately hanging on, and on, waiting for the markets to see sense and make up what they lost. Don't forget that, while you're waiting, your money is languishing in your home country doing you no good at all.
It happens all the time, and to people who really should know better. I once knew an accountant with a respectable economics degree who held on to worthless dotcom stocks for years because she couldn't accept that she'd thrown so much money away. It can be a real psychological bear-trap. |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 1:18 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
First, unless you're moving major quantities of cash, buying and selling Yen costs rather more than the 1--2% you're quoting. Don't forget the hidden charge in the differential between the exchange rate you're quoted and the market spot rates that everyone is talking about here.
Second, the exchange rate is not guaranteed to follow your expectations. In theory, you can measure the "price" of this risk by checking the price of USD-JPY call options with a strike price at the current spot price (you can check recent prices here). That's a few more percent you're throwing away.
But the real risk is that, if the markets move against you, you end up desperately hanging on, and on, waiting for the markets to see sense and make up what they lost. Don't forget that, while you're waiting, your money is languishing in your home country doing you no good at all.
It happens all the time, and to people who really should know better. I once knew an accountant with a respectable economics degree who held on to worthless dotcom stocks for years because she couldn't accept that she'd thrown so much money away. It can be a real psychological bear-trap. |
Here's the thing. I expected the yen to weaken after it hit its all-time high after the earthquake and tsunami so I started buying dollars like crazy. The rate I get is usually about one yen off the spot rate which works out to a bit over one percent. The last time I transferred money my bank charged me JPY 2,000. That's 0.2% for JPY 1,000,000 and still only 0.4% for JPY 500,000. Since the post-earthquake high the yen has fallen roughly 15% against the dollar. |
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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 3:30 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
| Since the post-earthquake high the yen has fallen roughly 15% against the dollar. |
just back from the bank. a year ago i was getting money back home at 77. today 89. a 14% loss (or gain if you are outside Japan, looking to come here)
on top of the international exchange rates, JP banks have their own rates a bit worse (for their banksters). usually another 1-2% against you and then the arbitrary 2,500 transfer fee... gonna have to get more part time work just to equal the principle I was getting from one job a year ago...
"she do take a bite don't she......" (can you name the movie?) |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:21 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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-- deleted --
(computer screw up)
Last edited by Pitarou on Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:24 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:21 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
| Pitarou wrote: |
First, unless you're moving major quantities of cash, buying and selling Yen costs rather more than the 1--2% you're quoting. Don't forget the hidden charge in the differential between the exchange rate you're quoted and the market spot rates that everyone is talking about here.
Second, the exchange rate is not guaranteed to follow your expectations. In theory, you can measure the "price" of this risk by checking the price of USD-JPY call options with a strike price at the current spot price (you can check recent prices here). That's a few more percent you're throwing away.
But the real risk is that, if the markets move against you, you end up desperately hanging on, and on, waiting for the markets to see sense and make up what they lost. Don't forget that, while you're waiting, your money is languishing in your home country doing you no good at all.
It happens all the time, and to people who really should know better. I once knew an accountant with a respectable economics degree who held on to worthless dotcom stocks for years because she couldn't accept that she'd thrown so much money away. It can be a real psychological bear-trap. |
Here's the thing. I expected the yen to weaken after it hit its all-time high after the earthquake and tsunami so I started buying dollars like crazy. The rate I get is usually about one yen off the spot rate which works out to a bit over one percent. The last time I transferred money my bank charged me JPY 2,000. That's 0.2% for JPY 1,000,000 and still only 0.4% for JPY 500,000. Since the post-earthquake high the yen has fallen roughly 15% against the dollar. |
You gambled and won. Congratulations.
But the story isn't as simple as you make it out to be. For example, in September last year you must have been pretty pissed off -- the Yen rose again and nearly reached it's previous high. Did that make you sweat.
By the way, who are you banking with? |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:21 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| stumptowny wrote: |
| qwertyu2 wrote: |
| Since the post-earthquake high the yen has fallen roughly 15% against the dollar. |
just back from the bank. a year ago i was getting money back home at 77. today 89. a 14% loss (or gain if you are outside Japan, looking to come here) |
Which is why I disagree with the idea of just keeping money in yen.
| Quote: |
| on top of the international exchange rates, JP banks have their own rates a bit worse (for their banksters). usually another 1-2% against you and then the arbitrary 2,500 transfer fee... gonna have to get more part time work just to equal the principle I was getting from one job a year ago... |
You might consider Citibank. Everything can be done online without much fuss. Also, as noted above, the rates are usually only one yen off the spot rate. Transfers to U.S. accounts are 2,000 yen per transaction. If you just need cash for a trip, you can set up a foreign cash account and transfer money into it without the 2,000 yen charge.
| Quote: |
| "she do take a bite don't she......" (can you name the movie?) |
Raising Arizona. |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:31 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| Pitarou wrote: |
You gambled and won. Congratulations.
But the story isn't as simple as you make it out to be. For example, in September last year you must have been pretty pissed off -- the Yen rose again and nearly reached it's previous high. Did that make you sweat. |
Not at all. I was happily buying more. In fact, I really wish it'd go there again because if there's one thing I'm confident of, it's that the yen is not going to stay at 78 long-term.
| Quote: |
| By the way, who are you banking with? |
Citibank. |
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Pitarou
Joined: 16 Nov 2009
Posts: 1116
Location: Narita, Japan
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:59 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
| if there's one thing I'm confident of, it's that the yen is not going to stay at 78 long-term. |
In the words of John Maynard Keynes: "In the long term, we're all dead."
In the medium term, all kinds of crazy shit can happen. Enjoy spending your winnings.
Oh, and thanks for the tip on CitiBank. I'll check them out next time I'm thinking about moving money. |
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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 8:10 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
You might consider Citibank. Everything can be done online without much fuss. Also, as noted above, the rates are usually only one yen off the spot rate. Transfers to U.S. accounts are 2,000 yen per transaction. If you just need cash for a trip, you can set up a foreign cash account and transfer money into it without the 2,000 yen charge.
| Quote: |
| "she do take a bite don't she......" (can you name the movie?) |
Raising Arizona. |
good work! and your reward: "I don't know.. they had Yoda's and sh** on 'em....."
citibank... do they have free checking? chase was charging me $10 a month just for having a checking account I didn't use and then taking a cut on each transfer as well. I cut out the middle man and deposit directly to my broker now..
2,000 aint much of a deal if everyone else is charging 2,500. online is nice but jp post remittance form is a synch after a couple times...
cut out the bankster shisters as much as possible... |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2013 4:46 pm Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| stumptowny wrote: |
good work! and your reward: "I don't know.. they had Yoda's and sh** on 'em....."
citibank... do they have free checking? chase was charging me $10 a month just for having a checking account I didn't use and then taking a cut on each transfer as well. I cut out the middle man and deposit directly to my broker now..
2,000 aint much of a deal if everyone else is charging 2,500. online is nice but jp post remittance form is a synch after a couple times...
cut out the bankster shisters as much as possible... |
I don't have a checking account with Citibank, so I'm not sure if they charge for it.
A few years ago, before I switched to Citibank, I went to JP Post to wire money and to see if it was any better than the Japanese bank I was using. I seem to remember their rate wasn't any better. After spending the time and money to get to the post office just to stand in line and fill out forms, it didn't seem like such a great deal to me.
Five hundred yen is five hundred yen and I don't have to leave my living room to do it. |
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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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| Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:01 am Post subject: Re: Japanese YEN at 27-month low. The right time to purchase |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
| Five hundred yen is five hundred yen and I don't have to leave my living room to do it. |
no checking account? what kind of account do I need for online transfers? any charges with that account type?
sounds great. a saved trip does mean a lot. its not the trip as much as the waiting that kills you at jp post. jppost is everywhere. it's their anality for detail that get you... the women yesterday was taking a while then gets up to ask for help in the back... I went to the 100yen lawson for grocery's and came back.. I have learned.. |
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