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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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 Posted: Sun Jun 02, 2013 2:44 pm Post subject: |
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Speaking of Abenomics and exchange rates, here is an article I just ran across a few minutes ago. It summarizes the situation in frightening terms.
Some of the key quotes:
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| Let me be very clear. Japan is about to unleash the most significant currency war since the 1930s ... |
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| Japan is going to need to depreciate the yen by 15%-plus a year to get their 2% inflation, and within two years that means a yen at 130. And then 150 the next year, with 200 the extrapolated destination in five years. |
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| Japan is discussing the need to impose rules on foreign exchange trading �to protect investors and limit speculation.� |
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| This is just the beginning. Do not rule out exchange and capital controls when things get very wild in a few years. |
http://www.businessinsider.com/mauldin-central-bankers-gone-wild-2013-6 |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:28 am Post subject: |
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| Inflames wrote: |
| rxk22 wrote: |
I don't see what having a lot of young people would do for Japan. |
As I said, children and young people consume a lot more than adults and the elderly. There are several books out there that explain, quite clearly why a growing population is better for a country. |
The problem is that they are consuming things that Japan doesn't have, ie food and energy.
Also, consumption=/= economic prosperity |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 12:31 am Post subject: |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
Speaking of Abenomics and exchange rates, here is an article I just ran across a few minutes ago. It summarizes the situation in frightening terms.
Some of the key quotes:
| Quote: |
| Let me be very clear. Japan is about to unleash the most significant currency war since the 1930s ... |
| Quote: |
| Japan is going to need to depreciate the yen by 15%-plus a year to get their 2% inflation, and within two years that means a yen at 130. And then 150 the next year, with 200 the extrapolated destination in five years. |
| Quote: |
| Japan is discussing the need to impose rules on foreign exchange trading �to protect investors and limit speculation.� |
| Quote: |
| This is just the beginning. Do not rule out exchange and capital controls when things get very wild in a few years. |
http://www.businessinsider.com/mauldin-central-bankers-gone-wild-2013-6 |
Oh yeah, a lot of what is going on with QE, is insane. It is Keynesian economics at it's worst.
Really wish the Japanese govt would get spending and public debt under control while they have a large pop that is contributing to the tax system |
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Rooster.
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 247
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 2:05 am Post subject: |
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| qwertyu2 wrote: |
Speaking of Abenomics and exchange rates, here is an article I just ran across a few minutes ago. It summarizes the situation in frightening terms.
Some of the key quotes:
| Quote: |
| Let me be very clear. Japan is about to unleash the most significant currency war since the 1930s ... |
| Quote: |
| Japan is going to need to depreciate the yen by 15%-plus a year to get their 2% inflation, and within two years that means a yen at 130. And then 150 the next year, with 200 the extrapolated destination in five years. |
| Quote: |
| Japan is discussing the need to impose rules on foreign exchange trading �to protect investors and limit speculation.� |
| Quote: |
| This is just the beginning. Do not rule out exchange and capital controls when things get very wild in a few years. |
http://www.businessinsider.com/mauldin-central-bankers-gone-wild-2013-6 |
They already went from ~78 yen to the dollar to ~101 yen to the dollar in a few months, why would they wait so long to go to 130? Also, do you really think they'd go to rates that haven't been seen since early 2002? |
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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 3:33 am Post subject: |
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abenomics is an artificial manipulation, not driven by real economic outcomes. a temp fix for a longer term problem...
japan and abe were also recently found by the G7 to NOT be guilty of wrongdoing while price fixing /currency manipulating (though everyone sees the problem. after all, it is inherent in the name, G7.... "price fixing / currency manipulation").
if it falters, the yen should drop again (to its rightful place, before abenomics, closer to those levels) and that is good for those of us transferring money out of japan. two years ago when I arrived it was 77 to 1 usd.. little did I know how good that was..
nothing against japan and its wishes to get its people ahead. problem is, it is a bubble waiting to burst.. |
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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 4:00 am Post subject: |
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[quote="Black_Beer_Man"]I think there is a misunderstanding here. How can a low yen be good for foreigners sending money overseas?[/quote]
because you are buying dollars for a cheaper price.. |
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Black_Beer_Man
Joined: 26 Mar 2013
Posts: 453
Location: Yokohama
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:22 am Post subject: |
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| stumptowny wrote: |
| Black_Beer_Man wrote: |
| I think there is a misunderstanding here. How can a low yen be good for foreigners sending money overseas? |
because you are buying dollars for a cheaper price.. |
You guys are all wrong. It's not that buying dollars is getting cheaper. It's the other way around. For Americans, for example, buying yen is getting cheaper.
All imports including food, oil and foreign currencies are getting more expensive. That means you get less food, less oil and fewer dollars for your yen than before.
In 1995, if you exchanged 10,000 yen in America, you got $128
In autumn 2012, you got $109.
Now, in 2013, you get $103.
Now, try to explain to me that I am benefiting?
Today's rate is $1.00 = 100.87 yen
So, if I exchange 10,000 yen today, I'd be really lucky to get $100. |
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Black_Beer_Man
Joined: 26 Mar 2013
Posts: 453
Location: Yokohama
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 10:48 am Post subject: |
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I know your math is wrong because I am an old fart from Canada who lived through the 80's when the Canadian dollar hit one of its lowest points against the U.S. dollar.
$1 CAD was worth .65 USD.
That was a bonanza for America which could buy raw materials from Canada at a steal. However, when I shopped in the U.S. I had to pay something like $130 CAD for every $100 USD value of goods that I wanted to buy.
When your currency is cheaper than the other guy's, you have to top yours up to make it of equal value.
What you meant to write is that 100 yen could eventually be worth 80 cents US. Now that would make sense. (and cents). |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Mon Jun 03, 2013 11:03 am Post subject: |
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| rxk22 wrote: |
| Really wish the Japanese govt would get spending and public debt under control while they have a large pop that is contributing to the tax system |
The debt is so huge that they believe the only way they can bring it under control is to inflate it away.
| Rooster wrote: |
| Also, do you really think they'd go to rates that haven't been seen since early 2002? |
Yes. If they lose control of interest rates, Japan will either default on its massive debt -- yen to the Moon -- or they will print like Zimbabwe -- sending the yen to the Moon.
| Stumptowny wrote: |
| ... if [Abenomics] falters, the yen should drop again (to its rightful place, before abenomics, closer to those levels) ... |
If Abenomics fails, it means there is no hope for Japan to bring its debt under control and eventual default. |
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rxk22
Joined: 19 May 2010
Posts: 1629
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| Posted: Tue Jun 04, 2013 1:48 am Post subject: |
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That is what I was hoping for, that inflating their currency, they would be able to pay down their debt. Instead, there seems to be no actual plan.
If I had any money saved in �, I would have taken it out back in March imho |
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Solar Strength
Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 557
Location: Bangkok, Thailand
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| Posted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 7:26 am Post subject: |
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| ￥98.68 = US $1 at today's interbank rate. The Yen got more expensive. |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 2:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Solar Strength wrote: |
| ￥98.68 = US $1 at today's interbank rate. The Yen got more expensive. |
As happy as I am to see a stronger yen, I don't think it's going to last. |
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stumptowny
Joined: 29 May 2011
Posts: 310
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| Posted: Fri Jun 07, 2013 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="qwertyu2"][quote="Solar Strength"]￥98.68 = US $1 at today's interbank rate. The Yen got more expensive.[/quote]
As happy as I am to see a stronger yen, I don't think it's going to last.[/quote]
97.75 friday evening..
http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm |
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Solar Strength
Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 557
Location: Bangkok, Thailand
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| Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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Looks good. How much longer do you cunts think this will last? |
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qwertyu2
Joined: 13 Mar 2012
Posts: 93
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| Posted: Sat Jun 08, 2013 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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| Solar Strength wrote: |
| Looks good. How much longer ... |
Abenomics is pushing for targeted inflation and thus a weaker yen. The recent strengthening of the yen suggests that the market does not think it's working. In the short term, that could mean a stronger yen. However, if Abenomics fails, Japan will probably not be able to get a handle on it's debt without either printing like crazy or defaulting. Both of those scenarios mean a much weaker yen. |
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