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Actual scientific DATA and references on SARS
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2003 1:16 pm    Post subject: Actual scientific DATA and references on SARS Reply with quote

I hope people will post authoritative references and hard data in this thread, and no rumor or personal opinion. I have been discussing this issue with some friends in the US who are VERY experienced medical practitioners and medical academics and must conclude that the time has come for me to take this situation quite seriously. I have been wrong to believe that the issue was essentially media hype. This disease is serious business. It something that justifies a contemplated response. It is not a biological atom bomb and can be defended against with comparative ease, but steps must be taken. I think we should use this thread for the communication of straight facts and researched ideas from educated sources.

To quote a note from one sawbones I know.

Quote:
Yes, it is a big deal. When a new virus appears, nobody has adequate immunity. Most (90%) who get it will still survive because they are healthy enough or lucky enough, etc. Note, however that many of the deaths reported (perhaps this is a media slant) are middle aged--not the elderly. Most (ordinary) pneumonia deaths are in the elderly and/or chronically ill. Most pneumonia deaths are from bacterial infections. As far as I have heard, none of the outbreaks so far have been in nursing homes. I do not think the nursing home residents will fare well if they become infected with the SARS virus (i.e. the death rate will be higher than 5-10%).

I think our perspective has to include the experience of the 1918 influenza pandemic. I do not know what the death rate was among infected individuals then, but I know of at least one village on the chain that had 1 or 2 survivors when the burial crew arrived from a ship (in Kanakanak (a hospital in Alaska JB) I took care of an old Swede who had been on the crew).

It's true that we have wonderful science to help: the virus has been identified, and presumably there is frantic work toward preparing a vaccine. But that will not help poor people in poor countries, and it will not be available soon enough to help most of us if the virus travels.


For a start, check out today�s article in the New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/27/health/27SARS.html?ex=1052534239&ei=1&en=71557fc7f5154bb4

Regards,
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TEECHER



Joined: 23 Mar 2003
Posts: 47

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2003 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greetings Hamish, Thankyou for the good links. Gmat and some others have been offering nothing BUT" actual scientific data and references" from the get-go. Welcome Aboard.
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Mon Apr 28, 2003 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am aware of most of the great work some people have been doing on this forum and thank them for it. I just lose track of where to find it among the various threads, and hope we can use something like this one as a library for specific and authoritative data and references.

Like this one.

International: W.H.O. Lifts Vietnam Advisory
NYT
By KEITH BRADSHER
The World Health Organization lifted its advisory today against travel to Vietnam and said that SARS infections appeared to be dwindling in 3 other nations.

Full Story: http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/28/international/asia/28CND-ASIA.html?tntemail1

Regards,
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2003 5:48 am    Post subject: Is that a light, or a headlight? Hear a whistle? Reply with quote

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50666-2003Apr28.html

Maybe a Budlight?

Sorry.

Regards,
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2003 8:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks to hubei_canuk we know about this source of data.


HK SARS stats updated daily.

http://www.info.gov.hk/dh/diseases/ap/eng/infected.htm
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2003 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-sars29apr29,1,1927275.story?coll=la%2Dhome%2Dheadlines

Despite such panic, some scientists said Monday the threat from SARS has been overblown.

"I think there has been overreaction" to SARS, said David Baltimore, a leading AIDS researcher who won the 1975 Nobel Prize in medicine for his work on how viruses cause disease. In contrast to AIDS, which kills virtually everyone it infects who does not receive treatment, 94% of SARS patients recover.
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china_gurl



Joined: 01 Apr 2003
Posts: 54
Location: Shanxi Province, PRC

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2003 9:56 am    Post subject: The Chinese don't trust the Government Reply with quote

... with reason, of course.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50743-2003Apr28.html

Cheers, I want to get out of here.

Incidentally, this is how I get MY information about SARS:
www.google.ca
Search News
"sars shanxi"
Sort by Date
That gives me up to the minute news coverage, provided it's not from BBC.
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once again



Joined: 27 Jan 2003
Posts: 815

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2003 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Hong Kong government has a website at http://www.info.gov.hk. Go there and click on the box for A Typical Pneumonia. It gives a fairly comprehensive breakdown of the days latest figures here. The one thing is does not tell you is how people actually caught the disease�my guess on this being that in many cases it falls in to patient confidentially clauses etc. or is simply not known. Or they simply do not want to tell us. One of the reports can be found at http://www.info.gov.hk/dh/ap.htm, which details the investigation and findings into the the outbreak at Amoy Gardens which pushed WHO to put HK on the restricted travel list. It makes interesting/frightening reading depending on your point of view.
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Tue Apr 29, 2003 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

An interesting Washington Post article.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50743-2003Apr28.html

Regards,
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2003 6:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

First hand. The SARS experience.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/26/international/asia/26PATI.html?fta=y

Regards,
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hubei_canuk



Joined: 20 Apr 2003
Posts: 240
Location: hubei china

PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2003 4:32 pm    Post subject: Mainland Sars Stats Reply with quote

Graphic Chart:
May 1st....Sars offical list in Mainland china. Province by province breakdown.
I think the link changes every day:
...
Go to People's daily>
Click on Special Sars Report
Click on Sars newsitem statistics for that day under Special Rreports.
Click on item "Sars Grahics in Chinese Mainland"..
(They don't make it easy...bureaucracy at work)

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200305/01/eng20030501_116127.shtml#
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hubei_canuk



Joined: 20 Apr 2003
Posts: 240
Location: hubei china

PostPosted: Fri May 02, 2003 2:55 pm    Post subject: Continuing Bad News Reply with quote

I find the steady rate of infection in Beijing to be somewhat disturbing. That and apparently the first admission that it is in the General Public in the form of Beijing University Students (who knows about those numbers?)
...
To this date, no one identified any person that had go it "on the street". Up to now it has only ben "hospital workers and airplane travellers".
..
Also, more bad news: The virus is mutating wildly, significantly mutating in its victims and becoming stronger.



"He says of the 670,000 college students in Beijing, 39 have been confirmed to have infected with SARS."
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200305/02/eng20030502_116167.shtml

Mutation News:
HONG KONG, May 2 (Xinhuanet) -- The Chinese University of Hong Kong has announced startling findings Friday on the genetic make-up of the SARS virus and discovered that it is mutating at a rapidrate both during the infection process and after infection.



http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2003-05/02/content_856479.htm
...............................................................
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Hamish



Joined: 20 Mar 2003
Posts: 333
Location: PRC

PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2003 5:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One view of the future.

http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci-infection3may03,1,1784598.story?coll=la%2Dhome%2Dheadlines

Regards,
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hubei_canuk



Joined: 20 Apr 2003
Posts: 240
Location: hubei china

PostPosted: Sat May 03, 2003 7:59 am    Post subject: Speculation Reply with quote

I had a disturbing thought.
Not fact and not rumour but speculation.
Would it be possible for terrorists to to use the existing SARS virus?
If so, the world is in for big trouble.
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gerard



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Posts: 581
Location: Internet Cafe

PostPosted: Tue May 06, 2003 5:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Geez I had to dig 3 pages to find this valuable post. Has the crisis gone away??? ...A good story in www.newyorker.com about epidemics and the economy. Little brief but excellent.
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