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Russian Airliner in Sinai
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buravirgil



Joined: 23 Jan 2014
Posts: 967
Location: Jiangxi Province, China

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wangdaning wrote:
So, wait, foreign fighters constitute a civil war? ... Assad is a dictator, but one who has huge support among the Syrian people.
Shocked
This is simply false and likely a conflation of recent events (ISIS/ISIL) and when violence first erupted and a resistance formed. Moreover, characterizing Assad Jr.'s support as "huge" is ignorant of Syria's cultural and political history.

The Alawites are a mountain people, really, religious refugees from a history further removed. Had their fierce fighting and remote location not spared them, the brutality of religious, factional fighting would have been absolute. The Assad presidencies were meant to protect this Shia minority-- that is its convoluted structure and it has finally collapsed after immeasurable loss.

I'll make no apologies: Your western-critical, reductionist analysis is nonsense and predicated by privilege. Assad and his father have resorted to brutality every bit as demonstrative as ISIS-- that's the ugly character of religious, factional fighting. The resistance, too, has been guilty of barbarity, but as a movement, its call to arms was after suffering much loss.

The involvement of the US/USSR has been typical of racheted escalation. The violent suppression of protest led to armed resistance-- guns flow to both sides. Russia provides tanks to clear the streets of tactical gain (amid protest) and, if those tank commanders start razing neighborhoods deemed unwilling to respond to carrots versus sticks, the US provides anti-tank weaponry. On and on like this, by some dubious algebra of agency and containment.
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buravirgil



Joined: 23 Jan 2014
Posts: 967
Location: Jiangxi Province, China

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 2:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

scot47 wrote:
A long time ago, Washington decided that they wanted Mr Assad to go. They have been working on that for many years.
Were it that simple...
"Working on that," conveniently ignores what events led up to the Syrian protests and an opposition army (officers of a national army). If memory serves, Cheney deferred acknowledgable policy in Syria by terming it a "quagmire". I mean, if you want to engage vaguely conspiratorial notions that Wikileaks and the Arab Spring were agitations, okay. Or interpretations that collapsing Iraqi factions into anti-west affiliation (We'll throw a war and see who comes), okay.

But Assad's position, THE most tactical Shia link among a cluster that is anchored by Persians and stretched to Bahrain and Yemen, is one the US has sought to preserve by inaction as actively disrupt. I can't suss it and I'm dubious you can know what Washington D.C. "decided", or could cite any consistently pursued policy. If Assad survives, where he'll settle in exile will reveal a lot. He doesn't fit neatly into similar asset profiles like Khadafi, Hussein, or Noreiga. And foregoing mention of what alliance Hashemites (Jordan) have with Britain and neatly avoid as Turkey's borders become stressed is also a convenient indictment of US policy.

I know this: I was as close to many scenarios as any, talked to many across the region for extended periods of time (mostly Lebanon (its soutsides)) and easy answers are...unlikely.

What's not noted, though sequential, is more illuminating in my opinion. Like when Putin (now a monarch more or less) added fighter planes recently, it was not a week after the US successfully negotiated with Iran (Persia) despite domestic criticism of Obama from every corner. Persians (and I'll invite John here) have a living memory of advanced development. They want them damn iPhones too! And US presidential envoys are trade envoys.

And this is all relevant because the latest, very real casualty (yet symbolic-as-well) is Putin's civilian air traffic and practical cooperation between the US and Putin is needed to address these odious ISIS fanatics. Or even more controversial: Is the downing of civilian air traffic reciprocity for not more actively "fighting" the US. And who's out there saying it's all false flags?
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scot47



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Posts: 15343

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 7:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Many - including Bibi in Tel Aviv and his buddies in the US - still see the real enemy as Iran. The anti-Iranian faction and not Putin are the real enemies of peace and stability.
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wangdaning



Joined: 22 Jan 2008
Posts: 3154

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

buravirgil wrote:
wangdaning wrote:
So, wait, foreign fighters constitute a civil war? ... Assad is a dictator, but one who has huge support among the Syrian people.
Shocked
This is simply false and likely a conflation of recent events (ISIS/ISIL) and when violence first erupted and a resistance formed. Moreover, characterizing Assad Jr.'s support as "huge" is ignorant of Syria's cultural and political history.

The Alawites are a mountain people, really, religious refugees from a history further removed. Had their fierce fighting and remote location not spared them, the brutality of religious, factional fighting would have been absolute. The Assad presidencies were meant to protect this Shia minority-- that is its convoluted structure and it has finally collapsed after immeasurable loss.

I'll make no apologies: Your western-critical, reductionist analysis is nonsense and predicated by privilege. Assad and his father have resorted to brutality every bit as demonstrative as ISIS-- that's the ugly character of religious, factional fighting. The resistance, too, has been guilty of barbarity, but as a movement, its call to arms was after suffering much loss.

The involvement of the US/USSR has been typical of racheted escalation. The violent suppression of protest led to armed resistance-- guns flow to both sides. Russia provides tanks to clear the streets of tactical gain (amid protest) and, if those tank commanders start razing neighborhoods deemed unwilling to respond to carrots versus sticks, the US provides anti-tank weaponry. On and on like this, by some dubious algebra of agency and containment.


No need to think about apologies, I am not Syrian. In that case you may need to say sorry.
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buravirgil



Joined: 23 Jan 2014
Posts: 967
Location: Jiangxi Province, China

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scot47 wrote:
Many - including Bibi in Tel Aviv and his buddies in the US - still see the real enemy as Iran. The anti-Iranian faction and not Putin are the real enemies of peace and stability.
Yeah, Saudi will cooperate with Isreal to defer Iran. That's the level of toxicity to Shia/Sunni contentions. Syrians I knew morbidly joked they'd surrender to Israel faster than Iran to keep their heads.

A young Brit teacher to arrive at our project in Tabuk 2011 believed the hype that boots on the ground were imminent in regard to Iran. Iran's a lot of damn people and they're relatively educated. They've also been secluded from a lot of advancement since the 70s. So I'll defer to John about Iranian attitudes and with what enthusiasm civilians will embrace international trade.

For some better, and often a lot worse, American policy is driven by economic expansion because prevailing economic theory emphasizes growth and leveraged debt and consumer culture. There's more stuff in more hands than ever before and a "corporatocracy", with international share, eagerly structures supply lines and consolidates its management with technology every passing second.

On Preview: Wangdaning? I worked with over a dozen Syrians for over three years, passed through Damascus to Lebanon, twice. Spent, cumulatively, five weeks in Lebanon traveling north and south. I don't know what newsletter you follow, but I would have to apologize to an Assad constitutent/soldier over the dead bodies of many thousands...in other words, I wouldn't. What you know of Assad and his father is apparently nothing.

Says a lot? Says what? Then.

Check that privilege. Congrats on the family.


Last edited by buravirgil on Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:11 am; edited 2 times in total
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wangdaning



Joined: 22 Jan 2008
Posts: 3154

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

buravirgil wrote:
Syrians I knew morbidly joked they'd surrender to Israel faster than Iran to keep their heads.

Says a lot.
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gregory999



Joined: 29 Jul 2015
Posts: 372
Location: 999

PostPosted: Mon Nov 09, 2015 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wangdaning wrote:
gregory999 wrote:

Now the Russians are supporting Assad against other parties of the civil war.
Do you think Assad is a moderniser or a dictator?

Assad is a dictator, but one who has huge support among the Syrian people. They do not want another dictator, and are smart enough to know what would happen.

Assad regime killed more than 250000 Syrians using all kind of weapons including chemical weapons, and more than 10 millions Syrian were forced out of their homes (some are refugees all over the world).

Quote:
What do you think would happen if Washington's "moderate extremists" took power?

Who are Washington's "moderate extremists"?
Do you mean the neoconservatives?
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scot47



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Posts: 15343

PostPosted: Wed Nov 11, 2015 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think he means the "moderate extremists" within Syria. Crazies with beards.
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wangdaning



Joined: 22 Jan 2008
Posts: 3154

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2015 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Syria is a sectarian state which accepts people of all religions. The people funded by the US do not accept people who are not in their camp. The UN went in and found the rebels were the ones causing death. Read something other than fox/cnn/bbc. People are not running from Syrian government abuse, but some are running.
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buravirgil



Joined: 23 Jan 2014
Posts: 967
Location: Jiangxi Province, China

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2015 1:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wangdaning wrote:
Syria is a sectarian state which accepts people of all religions. The people funded by the US do not accept people who are not in their camp. The UN went in and found the rebels were the ones causing death. Read something other than fox/cnn/bbc. People are not running from Syrian government abuse, but some are running.
Abuse? That's deplorable euphemism for torture and murder.

I was in the middle east during the Arab Spring. I directly worked with over a dozen Syrians (conservative accounting) for three years. I've traveled through Syria. Ignorant and revisionist opinion is unbecoming your more typical candor and experience.

I suppose the fox/cnn/bbc snipe is because I mentioned newsletters.

Your accounting of what the UN has managed over an extended duration is neither accurate or comprehensive. Peaceful protests were, on more than one occasion, put down by violent assault in which many died. The national army splintered at the officer level and a rebel resistance began.

To accurately relate the timeline and character of a conflict that has resulted in a mass exodus, you'll have to educate yourself about the Assad family presidency and its balance of power with Syria's representative government.

I don't know why you bother to make cursory and semantic assertions about a topic as grave as this and the life experience of others, but it's beneath you.
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wangdaning



Joined: 22 Jan 2008
Posts: 3154

PostPosted: Sun Nov 22, 2015 2:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We all know you know everything about everything. You worked with Syrian expats and traveled there, any view away from that is wrong.
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buravirgil



Joined: 23 Jan 2014
Posts: 967
Location: Jiangxi Province, China

PostPosted: Mon Nov 23, 2015 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wangdaning wrote:
We all know you know everything about everything. You worked with Syrian expats and traveled there, any view away from that is wrong.
I cite my personal experience because it is relevant to the topic of Syria in this thread and have urged you to learn more about the history of the Assad family presidencies (given a civil war, now indistiguishable from a regime). It's not that views contrary to mine are inherently wrong, but uninformed about a topic that I learned about from primary sources over three years. Family and friends of colleagues died. Tension about Syrians losing visas due to institutional changes (and what fraction of hires were Jordanian versus Syrian) were solemn because there was no country to return to. The tension among Syrians was, at times, understandably strained beyond professional decorum. The affiliations were granular down to what city one came from, not religiosity.

Your assertion about Assad's popularity is desultory as it is framed in terms of conflict by western proxy. Which is an imposed narrative to say, in effect,
    Assuredly, an elected President that has sought non-western affiliation represents yet another constituency that, once again, is made to suffer by military might and circumstances only obscure this fact.
What do you know of the Alawites? Because it is from that knowledge an informed opinion can begin. How was Assad's father brought to power and how did Syria conscientiously form a government unique to other nations comprised of both Sunni and Shia adherents? How was the transfer of office to a son given legitimacy? How is Lebanon's proximity relevant, and how long ago did conflicts emerge in Tripoli (not Libya's capital)?

I'm not assigning these topics, wangdining, but asserting my opinion on the matter is informed and that your arm-chair analysis is not . If I'm incorrect, engage with information that is not framed by abstraction or criticism that is ad hominim in character.
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