Job Discussion Forums

[JezzaYouBeauty!!]

Hey....

I am worried this could be a dud topic. Maybe not. I started 'Is japan life good?' topic once, which turned into a malcolm vs the rest of the world bash.

And now we got the funny 'I Hate Japan'. It's like a multi-player online 1st person shooter PC/XBOX/PS2 game.

But I just wanna say...I like you all....even though I don't know you, and despite whatever I have said in my previous postings.

BUT....yes....THE CURRENT STATE OF JAPAN!

a) Needed transition. Will take Japan take the plunge? Challenging and exciting to be a part of japan now, and see which direction it will take....

b) Japan's going down the drain.

c) We are ESL teachers. Don't give a rat's bottom. Doesn't affect us.

d) There's nothing wrong at all.

Whaddya reckon? Multiple choice.

The ailing japanese economy is very famous. And there's a book called, 'Dogs and Demons: Tales of the Dark side of Japan' by Alex Kerr (or something like that). And it is all about how Japan IS going down the tube.

Just interested in the new country I live in, if anyone has feedback.

C ya.

-Jezza

[moot point]

Here's my very uninformed reply to "Japan going down the tube".

I don't think it will ever be the perceived manufacturing powerhouse it once was. Japan has left that venue (not necessarily voluntarily) but it is now in the hands of the BRIC countries.

However, Japanese companies have invested somewhat heavily in these countries and will benefit in the near future. The Japanese government have taken an even longer outlook and invest heavily in countries (in terms of aid and infrastructure projects) who "might" be able to make it the world stage sometime down the road.

Japan is still the second largest economy in the world and will be for some time. China is expected to overcome Japan sometime in the next ten or twenty years if I recall correctly. I've also read that China will overcome the USA around 2050 (i.e. if the U.S. can refrain from taking militarily action in response to such a threat).

In relation to the economy, I personally feel the Nikkei will reach 18,000yen within a year and will inevitably quadruple its current value faster than the U.S. Those who invested in Japan during those bubble years are still scared. So are their children. All in all this is a good thing because everyone is being cautious and not inflating markets like that of today's India or China; or yesterday's NASDAQ. Therefore it is probably one of the safest and best bets for your investments.

[SEndrigo]

Regardless of what happens with the Nikkei, Japan is facing a severe decrease in population in the coming years, as people are getting older, and not having as many children.

If nothing changes, there will be a glut in the housing market, a severe surplus, which will make investing in real estate even less appealing than it is right now.

[Lister100]

I think population decreases usually ups the price of labour, leaving industry less competitive and the prospect of large scale immigration seems unlikely here. Who knows though, maybe the order will go out and everyone will have more babies?

[markle]

Japan is indeed in transition and I think the prospects look pretty good, it'll become China's England. It has the benefits of a small hinterland, and a decreasing population which translates into an ability to move quicker and easier from a manufacturing based economy to a service based economy. Things will be bumpy for awhile, especially when China implodes, but things should stay on track.

[moot point]

markle, nice comparison.

I agree that a shrinking population is not necessarily a bad thing for Japan. There are too many people on such a small land area, although inevitably Japan will need to allow for immigration in the future if people become too sparse. If their current attitude (fear?) towards immigration continues it will just accelerate the manufacturing jobs, where labour costs are already too high, overseas to free up more people for the service sector.

I, too, agree with Sendrigo about the poor outlook for the real estate market but again prices are just simply too high so bringing down both real estate and even continued deflation will just put Japan on par with other nations.

If we think of "economy" as the financial ability for Japan's people to live a comfortable life, then I think it will only get better in the future. Lower land prices and lower consumer prices in comparison to slightly lower salaries and a decrease in number of unemployed (due to dropping population) translates to an improvement in my eye.

[guest of Japan]

I agree that Japan has many problems to face, but it does have one thing to save it - inheritance taxes. They are the highest in the world. I believe they are at around 70% right now. The government is sittling on a gold mine of potential income.

[malcoml]

[Freestyle T]

Japan will need to move from traditional manufacturing to service but also high-technology industries in which the developing nations cannot hope to compete for some time.

A reduced population will give them some breathing space to put their house in order as regards education and perhaps other things, like overemployment, needless construction, pollution and so on. Perhaps they can make some much needed reforms to their education system and produce a more highly-trained workforce.

As stated above, the drop in prices for all things will only lead to increased prosperity. And perhaps more tourism, as Japan becomes more affordable for the rest of the world.

The population will be half what it is now at the end of the century, but with good management, the shrinking economy can remain in proportion to the shrinking population and still remain competitive. Not an export powerhouse by any means, but certainly able to handle itself domestically and abroad.

[bearcat]

[guest of Japan]

No I didn't. And I imagine that most Japanese don't either.