Job Discussion Forums

[MrCAPiTUL]

For those of you over there, how has Japan been responding to the N. Korea issue? Especially since they tested a rocket into the Sea of Japan. Has it been getting any coverage, any offical statements been made? What about every day people, any talk of it? Sorry, I'm an international relations geek.

[wolfman]

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20060706a1.html

[PAULH]

[womblingfree]

Anyone remember the Rainbow Policy between North and South Korea a few years ago? Madelaine Albright dancing in North Korea with school children?

People from the North and South were reunited after years, families that had lost contact were able to visit each other and a sense of optimism and reconcilliation prevailed.

The the Bush administration took power, stopped all talks with the North and declared them part of an axis of evil. Cue, Rainbow Policy collapse and North Korea launching missiles again and doing anything attention grabbing to get talks started again.

Good to see US militairy spending and the budget deficit back to Cold War levels again

[MrCAPiTUL]

As much as a dislike the Bush administration, that isn't a totally fair statement. In 1998 poo-poo hit the fan when N. Korea fired a missle over Japan, which landed in the Pacific Ocean. That was during the Clinton Administration.

[womblingfree]

[MrCAPiTUL]

Sorry mate. Missed the again part.

If you look at the bigger picture, everything is unfolding in a very predictable manner, to some extent. If China becomes a superpower, you can see who will be lined up on each side of the fence (I say If because they still do have very many domestic hurdles to overcome in terms of the disparity between the rich and the poor).

US, India, Thaiwan, S Korea, and Japan all in an attempt to balance out China, who will probably pull N Korea. China would probably also find a way to pull Vietnam and Laos as allies. The undetermined one is Russia. I haven't really been able to swing them in either direction. If they continue the backslide towards communism, one would assume they'd line up with China. Then again, historically they have not been allies. It could be a World War II situation all over again. People that know they don't like eachother lining up to defeat a common enemy and then going against eachother when it is all said-and-done. Either way, that region is a hotbed of growing activity.

[Chris21]

Why would China risk a war in order to align itself with North Korea? The US is the largest trading partner for China, and critical for their future prosperity. Any sort of conflict could result in a suspension of trade between the two countries, dealing a serious blow to their growing economy. Further, China certainly doesn't want to instigate a conflict on its border that might lead to destabilization within China. I would go so far as to suggest that China might be one of the US's strongest allies in the region because they have the ear of North Korea and desperately want to avoid conflict.

North Korea is a poor, third world country, and nobody is going to engage in a crippling war on their behalf simply because they are neighbors and have some shared history.

The weapons test was just the DPRK trying to improve its bargaining position for foreign aid and future negotiations with South Korea in the integration of the two countries (which is inevitable).

[womblingfree]

What would be best for everyone would be a normalisation of relations with N. Korea leading to a potential reunification in future years when Kim Jong Il dies. Unlikely? Well about as unlikely as a reunified Germany not so long ago.

What would be best for Asia in the long run is closer ties between China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan, an Asian Union like the European Union. Now this may seem unlikely as there is so much bad blood. Also this would significantly reduce US influence in the region.

The US already has to deal with this in the EU. It seems to be promoting discord already, see all those EU countries that went into Iraq? They were all small players or thought that they could get more world influence by allying themselves with the US rather than with their EU partners. The Conservative party in the UK is already talking of joining a fringe group of nuts and pulling out of mainstream European conservatism, neo-con anyone?

Anyhow I really hope that in the future we will see closer ties between asian countries and less of the scare tactics by all parties. Let's face it the Japanese have far more in common with the Chinese and Koreans than they do with the US.

Hopefully when the current administration in the US leaves in the not too distant future all the bad blood and cold war scare mongering will go with them.

[wolfman]

[womblingfree]

[wolfman]

[womblingfree]

[MrCAPiTUL]

Chris, you are thinking too short term. The key to my comment was if/when China becomes a superpower. Right now, you are correct, China can not afford to make a move (much like it can not afford to make a move on Thaiwan). Do NOT be mistaken, though. The Chinese will not need the US in the future. Right now, the Chinese are utilizing the US for our technology, not our money, really. Don't get me wrong, the money helps for reinvesting initially, but it is really after the technology. I don't know if you ever realized this, but once China gets on its feet it can pull the rug out from under US companies. Allow me to explain.

The US became a superpower because of its strong domestic market and lack of internal trade barriers. That is how we can have a trade deficit yet still have the world's largest economy. The US has 1/5 of China's population. If China gets going well enough, it can kick out every foreign company it wants and not give a damn because it'll still be selling its products to, minimally, 1/5 of the world's entire population. The tables will be reversed and it will be the US and other countries that can not make a move because WE will not be able to afford to. The only way to balance that out is by creating strong ties with other Asian nations (who, believe it or not, also fear Chinese hegemony in the region). We've already started to take steps to neutralize their future power via development in India. We've been funelling shit loads of contracts to Indian companies, having bilateral nuclear trade talks, developing infrastructure, etc. Suddenly, India has become a potential player. After all, they have the worlds second largest population with approximately 1.1billion people. If they can develop like China has, they are the natural competitor in the region. Everything is going to take its course and in time, you'll see attitudes and opinions start to change.

[womblingfree]