Job Discussion Forums

[johnslat]

OK - admittedly it's mostly a dog and pony show, no doubt. But it's encouraging ( to me, raging optimist that I am ) that the Kingdom is actually allowing some sort of elections in a year:

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=1&section=0&article=33587&d=14&m=10&y=2003

And a human rights conference in Saudi Arabia???

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=1&section=0&article=33231&d=8&m=10&y=2003

Yikes - what next? A " We Love the USA " rally in Paris, France?
A B'nai B'rith get-together in Riyadh??

Regards,
John

[shebab]

I'm sure they can enlist the help of one of the many synagogues in Riyadh to organize that B'nai B'rith shindig!!!

[Cleopatra]

I'm wondering the same thing. I think May 12th really scared the living daylights out of the Saudi authorities and - perhaps much too late - woke them up to the fact that they've been cultivating a monster for decades. Whether allowing elections for half the members ofmunicipal councils will actually change things si a moot point - we will just have to wait and see. How meaningful are these councils anyway? Will they really lead to the Al Sauds relenquishing an iota of their power?
Still it's got to be a step in the right direction, but maybe it's just too little, too late.

[johnslat]

Dear Cleopatra,
Gosh - I guess great minds DO think alike. Upon reading your posting, I had to check to make sure I hadn't written it. The phrases " wake-up call " and " too little, too late? " have been exactly the ones I've been using myself. Here's an article from the NY Times that says some things about the " new democracy " in the Kingdom that I liked a lot:

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/10/16/opinion/16POLL.html?th

Regards,
John

[veiledsentiments]

Well---

I read the article and I found the writer rather --- um --- lacking in knowledge of the area and culture? Like he suggests that this will be some kind of 'wake-up' call for the surrounding countries. Hey, but hadn't he noticed that the surrounding countries are way ahead on this? They have had elections. They have some sort of Majlis with varying powers - some for years. Many of them already allow women to vote and hold office. Of course, they are still mostly just rubber stamp organizations for the powers what be.

It is not that I am not happy to see the little breaks in the facade. I have been a fascinated observer of the process of change that has been moving through the Middle East in the last 15-20 years. The hard part of any real change is going to be wresting control of the country's finances from the royal/ruling families. Saudi's financial woes are mostly from the thousands of princes insisting on maintaining their lifestyles of the rich and famous while contributing little or nothing to their society.

So how is power going to get transferred over to these new elected bodies? If I look back at history, I don't see this sort of thing happening at the choice of a ruling elite - be it 'royal' or bureaucratic. (well --- perhaps England? but it took years - like a hundred or two-) The only obvious thing is that change must come from within, and education is the key


Another spanner in the progress is that the current changes have been brought about mostly because of an educated youth who have traveled and seen the world - many of whom have been coming to the US for their degrees. These are the ones who want change and who will have to push this process and carry it along. And the current government here, in its continual ignorance compounded by stupidity, now has pretty much banned any Arab Muslim students.

Sigh--- still hopeful, but increasingly worried---

VS

[johnslat]

Dear veiledsentiments,
Hmm, perhaps a slight misunderstanding here - the phrase " wake-up call " ( not, I believe, used in the article - but more about that later ) was employed by Cleopatra and me in reference to the May compound bombings - when the well-fed vultures came home to roost. In the article, rather than terming what's happening a " wake-up call ", I think the author is suggesting that if Saudi Arabia, the most hidebound of all the Middle Eastern nations in many ways, is seen as taking even " only a baby step " towards " reform ", then how can the other countries in the area, further down the road, not keep to the same path and even pick up the pace? Another point of minor disagreement:
" Saudi's financial woes are mostly from the thousands of princes insisting on maintaining their lifestyles of the rich and famous while contributing little or nothing to their society. "
Not that I'm contending that the Royal Family's financial wastrelism ( hmm, did I just make up a new word? ) hasn't contributed a good deal to the country's present economic situation - but it's the " mostly " I'm not sure about. I keep thinking of the billions of dollars poured fruitlessly into such black holes as " agriculture " ( trying, for psychological reasons to attain a " self-sufficiency " in foodstuffs ), the military ( and to what end there, considering that the Kingdom's armed forces could probably be routed by a well-equipped battalion of Boy Scouts ) and the many " religious " expenses. This " reform movement " on the part of the Saudis is, in my opinion, just a straw in the wind - but it MAY be a significant one.
Major changes in any society are not, of course, going to happen overnight, but perhaps the Saudis are finally starting to move, inching along, in the right direction. So to me ( and I think to Cleopatra as well ) the BIG questuion is: Is it too little, too late?
Regards,
John

[Truth Hurts]

It's amusing, if not downright ridiculous, reading TEFLers debating grand issues like Saudi Arabia's future as if they had been given carte blanche to draw up the Kingdom's roadmap to reform.

Why do we Americans always feel we have the God-given right to pontificate to the rest of the world on what would be in the best interests of everyone else?

The ONLY reform the world desperately needs right now is back in the White House. As soon as we kick out the morons that are running the country, the sooner we can begin to undo the damage they have meted out to the rest of the world. I cannot think of a time in living memory when the US was more detested in the world than right now. I'm honestly ashamed sometimes to be an American!

Face it: We are an arrogant, uncouth, loud-mouthed people who have no business telling others what to do.

Saudi Arabia is doing just fine! If you don't like it, LEAVE!

TH

[johnslat]

Dear Truth Hurts,

" Face it: We are an arrogant, uncouth, loud-mouthed people who have no business telling others what to do. "

Darn good advice, but you do seem to be telling US what to do/not do.

" Saudi Arabia is doing just fine! "

If you truly believe that, you must be even more of a Pollyanna than I sometimes am.


" If you don't like it, LEAVE! "

Well, actually I did. Don't see why that should stop me from being interested in what's going on there, though - or in stating my opinions about it.
We certainly do agree about the present administration. However, I rather doubt that any change which may ( one hopes - and works for ) take place in 2004 will make the USA or its relations with the rest of the world all peachy keen. Reform, in my opinion, is needed in other places, too. I don't think Osama and others like him will cease and desist if the Democrats win in 2004.
Regards,
John

[veiledsentiments]

Well Truth Hurts,

It seems to me that we have the right to discuss this issue as interested people. Personally, I think we TEFLers probably know a great deal more about Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Middle East than our current leadership. Those of us who have lived in the Middle East for many years have earned the right to comment on it. I haven't lived in Saudi, but many of the other countries. While I lived there I was never once 'arrogant, uncouth, or loud-mouthed.' Of course those are traits that are shared by many individuals of many nationalities.

The fact is that some of us CARE what happens in this part of the world. After years of working with the young people, I developed a great affection for them. I agree that we can't get rid of the current cabal controlling our government fast enough - but - for you to say that "the ONLY reform the world desperately needs is back in the White House" makes you sound like that person that you so despise - the American who thinks they know everything and has the right to pontificate. American Middle East policy has been lousy through many administrations - this one has just hit a new all-time low.

If you don't like the discussion, you could just mosey on to another thread. That way you wouldn't have to get all upset and all

VS

[veiledsentiments]

Now John - back to the topic at hand,

Like the term 'wastrelism' - doubt that it is a term, but it should be. OK, I will withdraw my 'mostly.' I would just love to be able to delve into their accounting records to see where the money has gone. I do recall flying over all those bizarre circles of green in the desert and hearing about how they were selling the wheat on the world markets for a fraction of what it cost them to grow. Sounds quite similar to American handouts to corporate farms actually. But then government tends to be about wasting money to buy friends and favors, be it Arab or Western.

Is it too little, too late? I fear so myself. I just don't see how the entrenched leaders in any of these countries would be convinced to give up power. Even new younger leaders like in Morocco, Jordan, Syria, and Qatar seem to be struggling to make the changes they want in their governments. How can it happen in the many countries where there is no real benefit for the current leaders to give up their control?

I can't really think of any countries who have successfully made a transition like this -- Have there been any John? I mean without a war or violent revolution? So, I guess my question is beyond too little too late - to - is it even possible in the first place?

VS

[johnslat]

Dear veiled sentiments,
Well, the Union of South Africa didn't do too bad a job making its transition from white-only rule, and the erstwhile USSR managed to stumble into at least a semblance of " democracy " without too much bloodshed ( not counting Chechnya, that is ). Indonesia managed to get rid of its gang of thugs without a lot of violence and so did the Philippines.
Maybe having the whole ( rest of the ) world watching does have an effect in such matters. I personally witnessed the revolution in Iran - a bit of bloodshed there, but nothing like what most thought it would be. Then there's Peru that got rid of Fujimori, too. And the Argentinian generals finally quit without a fight. Even Pinochet stepped down on his own. So I'd say there's at least a chance that the Kingdom might s l o w l y make a transition to a more " liberal " nation. A slim chance, perhaps, but it's not, I'd say, impossible.
Regards,
John

[veiledsentiments]

Hi John,

It seems to me that we had government change in your examples (I think SA is the best example), but there was a great deal of unrest and violence in the rest of the cases - and do we really have 'democracies' in their places. (begging the question of whether we really have one in the US, of course...) Perhaps you are thinking of it in terms of progress towards more democracy someday maybe.

An apparent difference in the Gulf countries, at least, is the level of wealth. Change in places like Indonesia, Philippines, and Peru really came up from the poverty stricken lower classes. There were and still are rebel groups killing regularly in the name of government change. The Shia in KSA or Bahrain are an under class, but not at the level of these other countries. And because of the religion aspect, I think it would play out much differently.

The fascinating example is Iran. I had a few friends in Iran at the revolution and have read quite a bit on Iran since. (there are lots of great books out right now about it.) I think it is 'the' Muslim country that would develop an Islamic form of democracy - if only the US would keep its nose out and allow it to come from its own people. Every time we push and threaten, it just empowers the conservatives Mullahs there. Iranians have never been ones to allow their leaders to ignore them. Interestingly the push for change and its gradual success has come from the universities and the women.

I certainly don't think that change is impossible, but I think that it will be so gradual that we will barely detect it. The fact is that there has been change all over the Gulf countries just in the 15 years that I have been watching. Much of the problem is the big bully on the outside trying to enforce its definition of how things should go - it just puts people's backs up and entrenches current situations.

I keep wondering if Dave is going to step in and tell us that this is all too political. But, I feel that what positive changes there have been in this part of the world starts with us (not the US government rattling the sabres at them) but with education. It is an educated populace - both men and women - that demands a just society.

VS

[Cleopatra]

Interesting discussion.

As usual, I agree with John and VS in most things. Truth Hurts - everything is far from bein g 'just fine' in KSA, the country is at a crisis point. And I would say the problem with most Saudi ex-pats is not that they take too much of an interest in the country, but that they do not give a damn about it, other than what it can do to their bank accounts. I don't think anyone here is telling the Saudis what to do - they will do what thye like anyway - but is simply commenting and debating the situation, in a well-informed manner.

BTW, did anyone here about how those protesters in riyadh were arrrested and the government did their best to cover it up? Seems like just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water ....

As I say, we can talk about this for hours, but in the end only time will tell. One thing I am sure about however, is that any reform in KSA - or any other ME country for that matter - has to come from the inside. Any hint of "Western" pressure will kill the whole thing stone dead. Which isn't to say it won't happen...

[ohman]

If KSA introduces a Kuwaiti style democracy, the reformist could be mutawa, then expect a sharp right. Right wingers will also run for office.

[johnslat]

Dear Cleopatra,
Well, I suspect there likely IS a fair amount of " outside pressure " on the House of Saud to institute some " reform ". Problem is - the Saudis would deny that whether it were true or false. They'd never admit to bowing to forceful persuasion from the West. Do you recall how all those imams were " fired " after the May compound bombings? The " official line " was that it had nothing to do with " terrorism " and was NOT being motivated by all those Western press reports about what was being preached on Fridays in so many mosques. Course not - why, as was reported, those changes had been in the pipeline for months, years. It was just an amazing coincidence that the dismissals took place so very soon after the terrorist attacks. So, you see - the Saudis are trapped by their " credibility gap "; for far too many years ( and it's still going on now ) they've been crying, " No wolf, No wolf ", persisting in denial of how, for so long, they DID help finance militant, fundamental Islam all over the world. I strongly suspect they figured " It's better to have the camel in the tent, urinating outward than to have it outside, urinating in ". I also suspect they thought that the money flow would protect THEM from becoming victims. But the compound bombing destroyed that delusion. As for the " elections ", well, the powers-that-really-be may well have seen an agreeable spin-off from permitting voting for municipal offices.
Whoever does get elected is going to have to take at least some of the heat for whatever goes wrong - and the Royal Family gets a free pass ( Hey, don't blame US - YOU elected them ). The problem there, I'd say, is that those poor " elected officials " will have about as much actual power as the average Abdullah in the street. Still, I wouldn't count out the House of Saud just yet - those lads are experts in survival. And the majority of the citizenry is, I'd say, still too well off for any kind of " revolt " to gain much steam. You don't have revolutions in a country where most of the ( male ) citizens drive Hondas.
Regards,
John