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No, Gulf cities are not necessarily safer
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globalnomad2



Joined: 23 Jul 2005
Posts: 562

PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 2:38 pm    Post subject: No, Gulf cities are not necessarily safer Reply with quote

I said "not necessarily," so don't have a cow. But people seem to forget that physical safety speaks to the question of traffic deaths, not just gun violence.

Here are some statistics that are worth a look--from a hasty google search, readily available. Let's compare three desert cities: Dubai, Jeddah and Phoenix, Arizona. They are all about the same population of 1.25 to 1.4 million. (Or at least, Jeddah had 1.25 m in 1987, the year of my Jeddah source here.)

Last year Dubai had 312 traffic deaths and 13 murders = 325 homicides (vehicular or otherwise)

Jeddah had a 26.5 per 100,000 vehicular death rate in 1987. That would translate to about 330 vehicular deaths for the city in 1987. Who knows what the current rate is. One would need a little more time to search that I didn't have. Jeddah murders I believe I saw were about the same as Dubai. So 13 + 330 = 343 violent deaths for Jeddah in 1987.

Phoenix had 220 murders last year but only 14 vehicular deaths = 234 violent deaths.

Thus it is not true that these two Gulf cities are safer than American cities. The Phoenix homicide rate of 15 per 100,000/year is average for a large city in the US.

Of course, murders are horrible, worse than accidents by arrogant maniac drivers, but either type of death is the same result--death. Furthermore, the vast majority of US murders are thug-on-thug hits in bad neighborhoods at night. The horrific drivers in the Gulf do not restrict themselves to bad neighborhoods at night; they can strike at any time or place.
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TABING



Joined: 20 Jun 2005
Posts: 123
Location: right behind you

PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great observation.

"Red" Adair, the famous oil well fireman who extinguished many of the fires that the Iraqis set in the first Gulf war said that driving to and from the fires in Kuwait was far more dangerous than actually extinguishing the fires.
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stoth1972



Joined: 16 May 2003
Posts: 674
Location: Seattle, Washington

PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, but how many of the traffic accidents were truly vehicular homicide? No doubt innocent victims come from many traffic accidents, but there are also lots of accidents involving only the reckless driver(s).
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Stephen Jones



Joined: 21 Feb 2003
Posts: 4124

PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The US road fatality rate is just under 15 per 100,000 (nearly three times the UK incidentally), and its homicide rate is over 5 per 100,000 giving a figure of 20 per 100,000.

The Saudi homicide rate is 0.4 per 100,000 and the Saudi Road fatality rate is 21 per 100,000 so the two figures balance out.

Either way you would be three times as safe in much of Europe.
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veiledsentiments



Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17644
Location: USA

PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My only quibble is that I would say that your Phoenix auto death rate is too low. Since I spend 4 months watching the nightly news in that area, I can tell you the number is significantly closer to 14 auto accident deaths a week than a year!! According to the stats that I found online, the auto death rate in Maricopa county has been between 450-475 a year between 2000 and 2005, and rising every year. Maricopa country includes Phoenix and its suburbs with a bit of surrounding empty desert.

The traffic in the Phoenix metropolitan area is almost as bad as spread out Dubai. There seems to be just as many drivers in huge fast vehicles being driven at speeds well in excess of the limit doing reckless lane changes. The traffic is danged dangerous in the Gulf 'and' many large metropolitan US areas.

The danger in both places is that auto accidents are random... and can happen in a split second at the extreme speeds being driven.
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adorabilly



Joined: 20 May 2006
Posts: 430
Location: Ras Al Khaimah

PostPosted: Sun May 13, 2007 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just a point.

Phoenix and the surrounding suburbs are closer to 6 million people (maybe more). (I know, I grew up there, and still go back from time to time.) not 1.5 million.

Phoenix also sprawls over 100 miles in each and every direction. It is HUGE. Getting from one side of the valley of the sun to the other by freeway, if there are no traffic jams takes 2 hours.

But with that in mind, it really makes me feel safer and more wonderful.... I have better chances of getting squashed in the gulf cities in my car, than being shot, stabbed, or beaten to death... great.
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globalnomad2



Joined: 23 Jul 2005
Posts: 562

PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2007 6:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

True that some vehicular deaths are only of the driver. True also that many murders are thug-on-thug in bad neighborhoods.

The 1.4 milliion population of Phoenix no doubt represents the formal city limits. There are always the city limits vs. the greater metro area...like Tokyo with 9 or 10 million within city limits and 20+ m. in the greater metro area.

The Pheonix traffic fatality figure of 14 was on the table that I found from a federal source showing the figures for a whole bunch of large cities.
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veiledsentiments



Joined: 20 Feb 2003
Posts: 17644
Location: USA

PostPosted: Mon May 14, 2007 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To separate to the Phoenix city limits is meaningless when the only people who know where the edges are is the mailman. Laughing It would be like using the stats for the tiny 'city' of Muscat versus the Muscat sprawl out to the airport. The traffic dangers of Phoenix exist because of the usual metropolitan reality that people rarely work and live in the same suburb.

You need to compare sprawl to sprawl... Cool Hard to use pure numbers of auto deaths, but better to use X per 1,000 or 10,000 of population. In that case, Dubai would be the leader in car deaths.

VS
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WD40



Joined: 14 Jan 2007
Posts: 104

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cars kill, guns kill. What kind of city would you prefer to live in - one where the high death is a matter of choice - you don't have to drive or you can see a bad driver if you are observant. Or you can live in fear from people who have intent to hurt, maim or intimidate. I have lived in the USA and hated the the gun mentality of society. Here in the UAE people don't carry guns or weapons, drugs are not everywhere, sexual assaults are limited and you can walk with your family without having to look every minute to check that you are not in some kind of danger. There are parts of the US which are safe and still free from these problems. I like the UAE because my kids don't have to learn about violence or forced to choose between having or not having a weapon in their house or car or on them.

The authorities are finally trying to educate people here about poor driving habits and it is beginning to have a positive effect. Wouldn't it be just as positive if the USA tried to eliminate guns. How many kids are killed each year from gun accidents? 5,000?.
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like2answer



Joined: 21 Sep 2006
Posts: 154