|
Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Students and Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Glenski
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN
|
 Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 9:26 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
gaijinalways,
I see your point, and I agree...up to a point.
The way Maaku wrote, it seemed to me that he/she was touting the effect of NOVA as an English provider, not as a business. Granted, many eikaiwa students may not improve much if at all, but I covered that with my earlier statements. It obviously didn't matter to the general public, otherwise NOVA wouldn't have risen to be the largest, now would they?
NOVA did lose money recently on expansion. That was not due to how it provided English instruction, though. It was a very poor business management decision to open more locations, then find they had to close them. Up until then, however, they had been in business about 20 years, continually expanding sucessfully. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Are they the lemmings
Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Posts: 9
|
| Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 12:28 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| In a thread by current Nova employees on 2Channel (that bastion of honesty and integrity), a poster calling themselves "head office staffer who's quitting today" says that Nova is about to be kicked out of its head office building in Shinsaibashi on Oct. 15 and Namba on Oct. 20. S/he claims the company is four months in arrears on the rent. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
alexcase
Joined: 26 Jul 2007
Posts: 215
Location: Seoul
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 1:20 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I think the mistake most people here are making is to define most customers at Nova and Eikaiwa schools in general as people who need to learn English and so will move to other schools sooner or later. Many students in Eikaiwa need to learn English about as much as a night school student in the UK needs to learn French. It is a hobby for a good percentage of them, and if this situation makes any of them think that ikebana might be a better option these are students lost from our pay packets forever, wherever we are in the English teaching food chain.
My prediction is that if Nova has a messy ending that makes Japanese consumers lose confidence in the entire industry, not only will there not be a rush of Nova students to other schools (or even private coffee shop lessons), but there will be a drop off in the number of students walking into any Eikaiwa schools to start English lessons for the first time. Anyone want to bet me a 1000 TL that I'm wrong? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Glenski
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 9:53 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| alexcase wrote: |
| I think the mistake most people here are making is to define most customers at Nova and Eikaiwa schools in general as people who need to learn English and so will move to other schools sooner or later. Many students in Eikaiwa need to learn English about as much as a night school student in the UK needs to learn French. It is a hobby for a good percentage of them, |
I said that on page three of this thread.
| Quote: |
| My prediction is that if Nova has a messy ending that makes Japanese consumers lose confidence in the entire industry, not only will there not be a rush of Nova students to other schools (or even private coffee shop lessons), but there will be a drop off in the number of students walking into any Eikaiwa schools to start English lessons for the first time. Anyone want to bet me a 1000 TL that I'm wrong? |
I don't know what a "1000 TL" is, but I would say that it is not very likely that Japanese will lose confidence in the entire EFL industry. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
RingofFire
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Posts: 43
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 4:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
| alexcase wrote: |
| My prediction is that if Nova has a messy ending that makes Japanese consumers lose confidence in the entire industry, |
Would you care to game this out and trace the steps that lead to this conclusion?
People still invest in big business long after Enron and Worldcom fessed up. Perhaps it's because people still need to find a way to make their retirements secure.
I know the neighborhood car dealership is full of crooks, but I still need a car. Even if I didn't, it's still a sign of status that I think would be nice to have.
The truth is there are not that many major industries in the world that have faded away just because of impropriety. They fade away when they're irrelevant or when the mechanisms that have kept them in existence long after they've become irrelevant don't work anymore. So unless NOVA's implosion makes English irrelevant (which shouldn't make sense to anyone), methinks exaggerations abound some. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
taffer
Joined: 03 Nov 2006
Posts: 50
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 12:36 pm Post subject: |
|
|
With much respect to Alex, who has shovelled it on three continents...
As have I.
Loss of confidence in this sheltered little bubble of a country is something which should be taken into account in any serious discussion as to the fallout of the Nova situation.
Anyone who has put in their time here knows that the herd mentality isn't something to dismiss entirely. That said, I don't see calling in your chips just yet. Ten years from now, will the teaching of English in Japan be as big a market as it is now? Alex has the point there. This is a contributing factor certainly. There are just more options these days. Other ways to gain status than by sitting with your white tutor...Oh for the days of Puyi. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Chris21
Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 366
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 1:51 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
Would you care to game this out and trace the steps that lead to this conclusion?
People still invest in big business long after Enron and Worldcom fessed up. Perhaps it's because people still need to find a way to make their retirements secure.
I know the neighborhood car dealership is full of crooks, but I still need a car. Even if I didn't, it's still a sign of status that I think would be nice to have.
The truth is there are not that many major industries in the world that have faded away just because of impropriety. They fade away when they're irrelevant or when the mechanisms that have kept them in existence long after they've become irrelevant don't work anymore. So unless NOVA's implosion makes English irrelevant (which shouldn't make sense to anyone), methinks exaggerations abound some. |
You're misrepresenting what Alex said. He said that people would lose confidence in the industry, not that the industry would "fade away" as you put it. You cite the recent examples of Enron and Worldcom as evidence that Alex is incorrect, but you are obviously not remembering history correctly. The corporate collapses of Enron, Worldcom, and others, like Tyco and Arthur Anderson, had a devastating effect on confidence in corporate America. It galvanized critics of the White House and led to a number of accounting and securities regulatory changes. Anyone who thinks that there will be no industry fallout from thousands of students losing their tuition, teachers losing salaries, Nova landlords losing their rents, and the bad press, is living on another planet. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
RingofFire
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Posts: 43
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 1:59 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| taffer wrote: |
| Ten years from now, will the teaching of English in Japan be as big a market as it is now? Alex has the point there. This is a contributing factor certainly. There are just more options these days. Other ways to gain status than by sitting with your white tutor...Oh for the days of Puyi. |
I've heard this generalization a few thousand times in my career but I've just never heard anyone offer up any convincing specifics as to how this generalization will manifest itself.
In what way will demand for English dramatically shrink in just ten years? Unless Japanese public schools suddenly throw out the English education standards they've spent the last generation (and the last ten years in earnest) developing; unless business clients from the US, Britain, Australia suddenly stop doing business with Japanese companies and vice versa; unless Sydney, Hawaii, Los Angeles and London all suddenly stop becoming major tourist destinations for Japanese people; unless Western pop culture suddenly takes a back seat to other cultures...I don't see the industry significantly shrinking in ten years. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
RingofFire
Joined: 22 Jul 2007
Posts: 43
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 2:11 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Chris21 wrote: |
| You're misrepresenting what Alex said. He said that people would lose confidence in the industry, not that the industry would "fade away" as you put it. You cite the recent examples of Enron and Worldcom as evidence that Alex is incorrect, but you are obviously not remembering history correctly. The corporate collapses of Enron, Worldcom, and others, like Tyco and Arthur Anderson, had a devastating effect on confidence in corporate America. It galvanized critics of the White House and led to a number of accounting and securities regulatory changes. Anyone who thinks that there will be no industry fallout from thousands of students losing their tuition, teachers losing salaries, Nova landlords losing their rents, and the bad press, is living on another planet. |
I'm going to ignore the bad "living on another planet" zinger if that's alright with you.
The point is despite those scandals (which broke just less than half a decade ago, and still pop up in the news every now and then), it's still pretty much business as usual and most days of the week haven't seen a whole lot of downturn attributed to impropriety. You're talking about politics and regulations. Alex and I are talking about consumer confidence.
There will be fallout and some people will be hurt, but an abstract, generalized and notable lack of confidence among current and prospective English students is going to take more than even all those things you've described. Even today, there are still just too many factors that contribute to why there is demand for English in Japan.
Now, that's my opinion and I could be wrong, but if I am, could you at least tell me nicely? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Temujin
Joined: 14 Sep 2005
Posts: 90
Location: Osaka
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 2:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| RingofFire wrote: |
| taffer wrote: |
| Ten years from now, will the teaching of English in Japan be as big a market as it is now? Alex has the point there. This is a contributing factor certainly. There are just more options these days. Other ways to gain status than by sitting with your white tutor...Oh for the days of Puyi. |
I've heard this generalization a few thousand times in my career but I've just never heard anyone offer up any convincing specifics as to how this generalization will manifest itself.
In what way will demand for English dramatically shrink in just ten years? Unless Japanese public schools suddenly throw out the English education standards they've spent the last generation (and the last ten years in earnest) developing; unless business clients from the US, Britain, Australia suddenly stop doing business with Japanese companies and vice versa; unless Sydney, Hawaii, Los Angeles and London all suddenly stop becoming major tourist destinations for Japanese people; unless Western pop culture suddenly takes a back seat to other cultures...I don't see the industry significantly shrinking in ten years. |
There are certainly those for whom learning English is something of a necessity, and this segment of the market will not disappear, though I'm sure some will find studies outside of the Eikaiwa industry.
However, a huge segment of the Eikaiwa industry is housewives pursuing a hobby, and these people could easily choose to take up ikebana or just sit at home watching TV. There is plenty of scope for the industry to shrink if confidence is hit badly, and this is a near certainty over the next few days, weeks and months. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Chris21
Joined: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 366
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 3:01 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| The point is despite those scandals (which broke just less than half a decade ago, and still pop up in the news every now and then), it's still pretty much business as usual and most days of the week haven't seen a whole lot of downturn attributed to impropriety. You're talking about politics and regulations. Alex and I are talking about consumer confidence. |
Don't you think politics and regulation are directly influenced by consumer confidence? By using the term "fade away", you seemed to be talking about corporate solvency, and not consumer confidence. It would be foolish to debate that the eikaiwa industry is going to go under. However, consumer confidence has a powerful effect that is always being felt, whether it spurs the White House and the SEC to imposing new regulations, or more recently, central banks to infuse liquidity into credit markets. Consumer confidence was at the root of those financial problems, and it will certainly impact this industry as well. It's just common sense that when people lose their money, they're going to be angry about losing it, and wary about spending again. If I were one of these people, I'd make more of an effot to study on my own. And if I was a prosepective student, I would think twice about enrolling at ECC, especially since Nova is only the most recent to go under (including NCB and Lado). Beyond that, negative press can't be helpful. When consumer confidence is shaken in financial markets, people stop putting their money in the bank (just ask Northern Rock). When consumers lose confidence in fast food, they demand healthier choices (ask McDonald's).
Your claim that "it's business as usual despite the Enron scandal" is innacurate. Because of the scandal, the US government established the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which dramatically improved finanical reporting for US companies. Some have said that it is the most important change to corporate law since the Depression. It would be more accurate to say that the current health of corporate America is in part due to the Enron fallout (not despite it).
I'm not suggesting that the collapse of Nova will have the same impact as Enron, but Nova is the largest company in the eikaiwa world. Lots of people are going to lose money, and lots of people are going to be angry. Suggesting that there will be no consequences to this seems incredibly naive. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
drifter13
Joined: 27 Mar 2007
Posts: 124
Location: Fujisawa
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 6:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I think that the Nova's end with definitley bring about shockwaves, but maybe not as big as people expect. Lots of students have already left over the last few months and moved on to other schools or what not. On the same note, many teachers have left the country all together, and others have already left to work elsewhere.
The language school industry will see some chaotic times coming up, but I don't really see some sort of Nova induced black hole situation. The fact still remains, their are people who want to learn English and so schools will keep coming that will offer the service. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
chollimaspeed
Joined: 11 Sep 2007
Posts: 120
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 6:23 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Chris21 wrote: |
| Quote: |
| The point is despite those scandals (which broke just less than half a decade ago, and still pop up in the news every now and then), it's still pretty much business as usual and most days of the week haven't seen a whole lot of downturn attributed to impropriety. You're talking about politics and regulations. Alex and I are talking about consumer confidence. |
Don't you think politics and regulation are directly influenced by consumer confidence? By using the term "fade away", you seemed to be talking about corporate solvency, and not consumer confidence. It would be foolish to debate that the eikaiwa industry is going to go under. However, consumer confidence has a powerful effect that is always being felt, whether it spurs the White House and the SEC to imposing new regulations, or more recently, central banks to infuse liquidity into credit markets. Consumer confidence was at the root of those financial problems, and it will certainly impact this industry as well. It's just common sense that when people lose their money, they're going to be angry about losing it, and wary about spending again. If I were one of these people, I'd make more of an effot to study on my own. And if I was a prosepective student, I would think twice about enrolling at ECC, especially since Nova is only the most recent to go under (including NCB and Lado). Beyond that, negative press can't be helpful. When consumer confidence is shaken in financial markets, people stop putting their money in the bank (just ask Northern Rock). When consumers lose confidence in fast food, they demand healthier choices (ask McDonald's).
Your claim that "it's business as usual despite the Enron scandal" is innacurate. Because of the scandal, the US government established the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which dramatically improved finanical reporting for US companies. Some have said that it is the most important change to corporate law since the Depression. It would be more accurate to say that the current health of corporate America is in part due to the Enron fallout (not despite it).
I'm not suggesting that the collapse of Nova will have the same impact as Enron, but Nova is the largest company in the eikaiwa world. Lots of people are going to lose money, and lots of people are going to be angry. Suggesting that there will be no consequences to this seems incredibly naive. |
Interesting post. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Miyazaki
Joined: 12 Jul 2005
Posts: 635
Location: My Father's Yacht
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Chris21 wrote: |
Don't you think politics and regulation are directly influenced by consumer confidence?
By using the term "fade away", you seemed to be talking about corporate solvency, and not consumer confidence. It would be foolish to debate that the eikaiwa industry is going to go under. However, consumer confidence has a powerful effect that is always being felt, whether it spurs the White House and the SEC to imposing new regulations, or more recently, central banks to infuse liquidity into credit markets.
Consumer confidence was at the root of those financial problems, and it will certainly impact this industry as well. It's just common sense that when people lose their money, they're going to be angry about losing it, and wary about spending again.
If I were one of these people, I'd make more of an effot to study on my own. And if I was a prosepective student, I would think twice about enrolling at ECC, especially since Nova is only the most recent to go under (including NCB and Lado). Beyond that, negative press can't be helpful.
When consumer confidence is shaken in financial markets, people stop putting their money in the bank (just ask Northern Rock). When consumers lose confidence in fast food, they demand healthier choices (ask McDonald's).
Your claim that "it's business as usual despite the Enron scandal" is innacurate. Because of the scandal, the US government established the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which dramatically improved finanical reporting for US companies. Some have said that it is the most important change to corporate law since the Depression. It would be more accurate to say that the current health of corporate America is in part due to the Enron fallout (not despite it).
I'm not suggesting that the collapse of Nova will have the same impact as Enron, but Nova is the largest company in the eikaiwa world. Lots of people are going to lose money, and lots of people are going to be angry. Suggesting that there will be no consequences to this seems incredibly naive. |
Chris, a hall of fame post.
The Japanese consumers should be thinking more carefully about entering into contracts with companies like NOVA. And you're right, NOVA's isn't the only one!
However, in my experience, I have always found the Japanese to be quite naive. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Glenski
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN
|
| Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 9:33 pm Post subject: |
|
|
Some people will be more careful with their money.
Some people will move on to another eikaiwa for lessons.
Most eikaiwa students just want to be in front of a foreigner and gawk, or they go to socialize. They aren't that serious about improving their grammar or conversation skills. It's a hobby. If they were that serious, they would only go to the places that really did improve their English.
Will there be no effect? No.
Will there be a huge effect? No.
Will Japan enact some laws to cover the situation? I think they may already have, but we all know that the government turns a blind eye to many illegalities and improprieties in this business. Just ask anyone working for a dispatch agency or a university.
So, politics and regulation may be directly influenced by consumer confidence, yes. Look how slowly the wheels of progress turn here, though. Consumer confidence in building codes (vs. bid rigging), in milk safety, in meat safety, etc. have not changed things rapidly, and the government is still ferreting out its own duplicitous actions and connections to all this, but we are not talking about such life-threatening events. We are talking about eikaiwa. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
This page is maintained by the one and only Dave Sperling.
Contact Dave's ESL Cafe
Copyright © 2018 Dave Sperling. All Rights Reserved.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
