| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
spamghod
Joined: 03 Oct 2007
Posts: 16
Location: Korea
|
 Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 1:14 am Post subject: Have You Been Affected By The Recession Yet? |
 |
|
Just wondering if anyone or their friends have been affected by the downturn yet? I'm in Korea and the Won is getting beat up pretty badly. Lots of teachers are starting to panic, I suspect many will escape by Christmas.
I haven't been affected yet, except for higher food prices. I've been buying gold for several years and frequent several jewelery shops picking up small amounts of gold. I've noticed I see a lot more Koreans trying to sell gold jewelery these days. I gather the jewelers don't give them a reasonable amount, or at least what the people think they should get.
By the way, the web bot project is calling for a crash in the USA from the 5th to the 8th of October. With special emphasis on the 7th (next Tuesday).
http://pimpinturtle.com/2008/09/08/web-bot-report-foresees-doom-october-7-turning-point.aspx |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
rayman
Joined: 24 May 2003
Posts: 427
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2008 2:26 am Post subject: |
|
|
My shares went from +15% to -30%. I've now altered my trading plan to trading the ranges made available through the volatility. I've also switched to purely the energy and energy services sector. Now getting closer to square one.
Gold, as you mention, is also a wise retreat. My salary is paid in $US which based on all indicators will weaken significantly over the coming months/years. Thankfully here in Indonesia, the Rupiah is equally as weak, so I haven't noticed any significant changes in cost of living. However, I see savings as more of a concern in the medium/long term. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
BOBBYSUE
Joined: 15 Mar 2007
Posts: 100
|
| Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2008 12:28 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Well I don't like to gloat guys but all that's happened to me is that the Brunei dollar has become stronger and my saving potential has improved quite a lot. Not an expert on these things but if this continues, and house prices in the West continue to fall, I'll be able to buy a much better one than I expected within 3 years or so |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Serious_Fun
Joined: 28 Jun 2005
Posts: 1171
Location: terra incognita
|
| Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2008 4:04 am Post subject: |
|
|
Housing prices here in Hong Kong are dropping a bit, and this will be reflected in rentals very soon.
Otherwise, food/clothing/service prices seem to be stable. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Pelican_Wrath
Joined: 19 May 2008
Posts: 490
|
| Posted: Wed Oct 08, 2008 11:32 am Post subject: |
|
|
| BOBBYSUE wrote: |
| Well I don't like to gloat guys but all that's happened to me is that the Brunei dollar has become stronger and my saving potential has improved quite a lot. Not an expert on these things but if this continues, and house prices in the West continue to fall, I'll be able to buy a much better one than I expected within 3 years or so |
Yep, the 200,000 RMB I've got saved in China is now worth about 3000 pounds more than it was a year ago.  |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
dime a dozen
Joined: 11 May 2008
Posts: 44
|
| Posted: Sun Nov 23, 2008 2:46 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| we (husband and me) returned stateside a few months back and landed on our feet with regular hours. still work for good teachers in arizona. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
parrothead
Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 342
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 2:53 am Post subject: |
|
|
| The Japanese yen is now 95 to the dollar, whereas last year is was 110. Not a bad time to be in Japan. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
parrothead
Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 342
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Mon Dec 01, 2008 3:01 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Many stocks are near five year lows as well. Whether or not things turn around soon, it's not a bad time to be a value investor. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Marcoregano
Joined: 19 May 2003
Posts: 872
Location: Hong Kong
|
| Posted: Tue Dec 02, 2008 3:47 am Post subject: |
|
|
| The tricky bit is picking stocks that will head back up, and avoiding the ones that, for whatever reason, stay down. A salutary tale re stocks - in 1999 I invested 5,000 pounds (UK) in a US-oriented unit trust. One year later it was worth 6,000 - great! By 2002, following 9-11 and the dotcom bust, it was worth about 2,500. By 2006 it had crept up to about 4,000, but was showing no signs of going anywhere fast. I switched it into a spread of 3 different unit trusts investing in China, emerging European countries and a general east Asia fund and it started doing well. By about this time last year my original 5,000 had crept back up to around 6,000 pounds. Now, it's worth about 2,300! If I had put my original 5,000 in an old fashioned building society savings account, it would now be worth, I dunno, 10,000 or more. I'm not saying don't invest in stocks - and now is probably a good time to do it - but it is a gamble. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
yamahuh
Joined: 23 Apr 2004
Posts: 1033
Location: Karaoke Hell
|
| Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2008 12:50 am Post subject: |
|
|
My investments are down about 30% last time I checked - now I don't look; I'm adopting the 'ostrich' method of money management 
On the positive side $100,000 Taiwanese dollars buys about $500 Canadian more than it did 2 short months ago. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Jati
Joined: 11 Mar 2008
Posts: 155
|
| Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2008 9:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
Stock share ownership shouldn't be treated like one would manage a gambling habit. Shares represent part ownership of real companies that may or may not make you -the owner- some money. It is not about rolling a pair of dice and hoping that they will go up and up and up.
Buy only companies that pay out dividends. These payments make the managers a bit more conscientious in their management than companies that claim to be "growth" companies (i.e., reinvesting all of their profits back into the company, a euphenism for giving bonuses to themselves). Some companies have been raising their dividends for many years running which shows a commitment to the shareholders.
The best dividend-payers over time have tended to be Pharmaceutical companies and Consumer Staple companies. Oil companies also pay out a lot of cash in dividends.
Examples,
Merck
Pfizer
Johnson & Johnson
Kraft
Phillip Morris
Reynolds
British & American Tobacco
Nestle
Chevron
Total
BP
ExxonMobil
Educate yourself on these matters before throwing money into the market like one would throw money on a gambling table.
Teak |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
yamahuh
Joined: 23 Apr 2004
Posts: 1033
Location: Karaoke Hell
|
| Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2008 11:50 am Post subject: |
|
|
OK dad!
Seriously though; I understand what you're saying but when we sold our house and put the money into investments before moving to Asia we had neither the time nor the energy to start educating ourselves on where best to put our money. It was a VERY hectic time!
That's why I used an investment advisor that I trusted and who worked for a VERY reputable company. I think he did a pretty good job for me too considering he made me some very tidy profits up until the crash. As for dividend paying stocks, I shouldn't think they'll be making too many payouts when they're, on average, experiencing greater than -20% returns.
To the best of my knowledge stocks that increase dividends while you hold them are great so long as the dividend continues to grow as the increased dividend yield promotes investor confidence and drives the share price higher. The inverse is true if the the dividend drops. So all the dividend stocks that looked so good while they were paying out may not look so good to investors right now and that could drive the share prices lower.
Would be a good time to buy into some though...
BTW a very quick search on the internet turned up the 5 best paying dividend paying stocks of the past decade as measured by total return and not one of them was your mix of pharmaceutical and or oil companies. In fact they were all small cap companies (less than $1billion market capital).
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2007/04/26/the-best-dividend-payers-of-the-past-decade.aspx
 |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Jati
Joined: 11 Mar 2008
Posts: 155
|
| Posted: Tue Dec 09, 2008 8:44 am Post subject: |
|
|
| yamahuh wrote: |
OK dad!
Seriously though; I understand what you're saying but when we sold our house and put the money into investments before moving to Asia we had neither the time nor the energy to start educating ourselves on where best to put our money. It was a VERY hectic time!
Would be a good time to buy into some though...
BTW a very quick search on the internet turned up the 5 best paying dividend paying stocks of the past decade as measured by total return and not one of them was your mix of pharmaceutical and or oil companies. In fact they were all small cap companies (less than $1billion market capital).
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2007/04/26/the-best-dividend-payers-of-the-past-decade.aspx
|
Yes, I am a father, so thanks for the compliment, son.
Total return includes both price appreciation and dividend payout. I wouldn't use that metric but rather dividend payout over a longer period of time. With the prices of all stocks dropping over the past several months, you can forget about the price appreciation for a while. But companies that increase their dividends, even in down periods, will build your wealth faster if you are reinvesting those dividends. A given dividend payment will buy more shares at a lower price relative to a higher price. This is dollar-cost averaging via dividends.
My recommendations are based upon about a 100-year period as provided by Prof. Jeremy Siegel of the U of Pennsylvania. In that length of time, the number one stock was Altria (MO), the holding company of Phillip Morris, with a 19.6% annualised return. Two years ago MO spun off Kraft (KFT) and last spring they spun off Phillip Morris International (PM). All three are great dividend-payers and have a longer period of proof than the ones mentioned by Motley Fool.
Other companies in Siegel's Top Ten list were Abbott Labs, Merck, Tootsie Roll, and Pfizer. Proctor & Gamble is also very high in dividend growth rate; for example, I have experienced a 15.5% per year growth in my dividend payments from P&G over the past 3 years. People keep eating and shampooing with their products.
As an expat, I think that it is important to have investments that are nearly on automatic pilot. The companies that the Motley Fool writers throw out tend to be those that can only be found after the fact. It is easy to look in the rear view mirror and say "If only I had bought <company> I would now have....." MF articles are mostly come-ons to purchase the newsletters sold by their gurus.
Thirteen years of dividend investing has allowed me to buy a house cash outright in my country of choice, and still achieve a $300 per month dividend income at this point. My hope (plan) is to hold onto my shares for a long time and live off the dividend stream, so yes, I am looking for big-cap, stable, long-time payers, not the small caps. It is difficult to pick that one smallcap in 1,000 that will become the next Microsoft. Thus it is better to stick with a mutual fund or ETF if you want to invest in smallcaps.
Teak |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
parrothead
Joined: 02 Nov 2003
Posts: 342
Location: Japan
|
| Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2008 1:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Jati wrote: |
| As an expat, I think that it is important to have investments that are nearly on automatic pilot. The companies that the Motley Fool writers throw out tend to be those that can only be found after the fact. It is easy to look in the rear view mirror and say "If only I had bought <company> I would now have....." MF articles are mostly come-ons to purchase the newsletters sold by their gurus. |
I love perusing The Motley Fool, but I agree, many of the articles are reactionary or built on "hunches". What a way to plan for one's future! "I just have a hunch..."
The rest of your post is good advice. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
yamahuh
Joined: 23 Apr 2004
Posts: 1033
Location: Karaoke Hell
|
| Posted: Wed Dec 10, 2008 2:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
Yup, gotta admit it sounds like you know what you're talking about Jati.
Very well thought out and presented information. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
