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JL
Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 241
Location: Las Vegas, NV USA
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 Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 5:23 am Post subject: |
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| elkarlo wrote: |
| If you want to retire in Japan, you will have to take a small pension and live in the Phillipines or Vietnam. To offset the costs of the national pension. |
Ahhh... and now you have mentioned the great big pink elephant in the room, which nobody else wants to discuss. But not just in Japan. I think every single modernized nation which has a "baby boom" population, is facing a ticking time bomb. In the U.S. alone, we have a $43 trillion dollar (yes, as in "one million millions!") committment of social security and Medicare benefits, alone, that is unfunded. (And that's not counting corporate and private pension monies which are going up in smoke as the stock market and entire companies implode.) $43 Tril. works out to a $350,000 share of debt, per U.S. household. It ain't there, folks. And it ain't there in Japan, or the U.K., or anywhere else, either. More and more people throughout the globe are simply going to be forced to work longer and longer, to keep eating. I'm no economist, but can you say, "declining wages?" |
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elkarlo
Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 2:12 pm Post subject: |
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| JL wrote: |
| elkarlo wrote: |
| If you want to retire in Japan, you will have to take a small pension and live in the Phillipines or Vietnam. To offset the costs of the national pension. |
Ahhh... and now you have mentioned the great big pink elephant in the room, which nobody else wants to discuss. But not just in Japan. I think every single modernized nation which has a "baby boom" population, is facing a ticking time bomb. In the U.S. alone, we have a $43 trillion dollar (yes, as in "one million millions!") committment of social security and Medicare benefits, alone, that is unfunded. (And that's not counting corporate and private pension monies which are going up in smoke as the stock market and entire companies implode.) $43 Tril. works out to a $350,000 share of debt, per U.S. household. It ain't there, folks. And it ain't there in Japan, or the U.K., or anywhere else, either. More and more people throughout the globe are simply going to be forced to work longer and longer, to keep eating. I'm no economist, but can you say, "declining wages?" |
And Japan will face this first. In fact this may come up really soon,a s they have an old population, as well as being hit by this recession. The US still has a few more years. My Dad was born in 47', he has about 7 years left till he retires. We can also start delaying SS and Medi which may help us out.
As for Japan, geez does anyone have 401k or stock?
I think in general we are going to see a decline in the standard of living. Which I think will throw some countries hard to the left or the right.
Anyhow I really don't see this recession as anything good. In fact I may start a thread on the future of ESL in Japan. It seems like it is a nice hobby. But all the companies that do business with English speaking countries are established, with established HQs. I think their need for English in schools is over inflated. In fact if they want to trim some fat, I could see them getting rid of piles of ALTs, and it really not affecting them in any meaningful way. |
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Vince
Joined: 05 May 2003
Posts: 559
Location: U.S.
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| JL wrote: |
| It ain't there, folks. And it ain't there in Japan, or the U.K., or anywhere else, either. |
A lot is being said about the American retirement stool gaining a fourth leg, phased partial retirement (the traditional three legs are Social Security, pension, and personal savings). The order of the day is save, save, save, and have at least one backup skill with which you can support yourself. A career in an essential field (medicine, education, etc) is the way to go. If I were at an eikaiwa in right now, I'd be either pushing hard for a more secure job or planning to leave.
| elkarlo wrote: |
| As for Japan, geez does anyone have 401k or stock? |
Owning stock isn't nearly as prevalent in Japan as it is in the US. For that reason, 401(k) type plans wouldn't make much sense to most Japanese. They basically have pension, personal savings, and the possibility of living with their children.
| elkarlo wrote: |
| I think their need for English in schools is over inflated. In fact if they want to trim some fat, I could see them getting rid of piles of ALTs, and it really not affecting them in any meaningful way. |
Global access is vitally important to the Japanese, both to maintain their current situation and to achieve their goals for the future. I doubt that reducing their emphasis on global communication would appeal to them. Until they can get enough Japanese EFL teachers to do it right, they'll probably consider native speakers a necessity. The Japanese also tend to believe that foreigners and English are a package, and I doubt the economic crunch will completely dispell that.
Last edited by Vince on Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:57 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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elkarlo
Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| elkarlo wrote: |
| I think their need for English in schools is over inflated. In fact if they want to trim some fat, I could see them getting rid of piles of ALTs, and it really not affecting them in any meaningful way. |
Global access is vitally important to the Japanese, both to maintain their current situation and to achieve their goals for the future. I doubt that reducing their emphasis on global communication (poor though it is) would appeal to them. Until they can get enough Japanese EFL teachers to do it right, they'll probably consider native speakers a necessity. The Japanese thend to believe that foreigners and English are a package, and I doubt economic crunch will completely dispell that.[/quote]
You know for all they effort they put into ESl, they get a very loew return. They could just use that money to hire translators. And with the savings build 1 Death Star, a year.
I think they should just narrow the amount fo people they teach. Have a class for people who WANT to take English. Even make advanced classes and the such. They need to narrow the scope, as most people aren't going to get much out of sitting through 6 years of English classes. |
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Vince
Joined: 05 May 2003
Posts: 559
Location: U.S.
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 3:56 pm Post subject: |
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| elkarlo wrote: |
| I think they should just narrow the amount fo people they teach. Have a class for people who WANT to take English. Even make advanced classes and the such. They need to narrow the scope, as most people aren't going to get much out of sitting through 6 years of English classes. |
That makes sense to us, but they view it with different priorities. |
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elkarlo
Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 4:49 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="Vince"]
| JL wrote: |
| elkarlo wrote: |
| uot;]I think their need for English in schools is over inflated. In fact if they want to trim some fat, I could see them getting rid of piles of ALTs, and it really not affecting them in any meaningful way. |
Global access is vitally important to the Japanese, both to maintain their current situation and to achieve their goals for the future. I doubt that reducing their emphasis on global communication would appeal to them. Until they can get enough Japanese EFL teachers to do it right, they'll probably consider native speakers a necessity. The Japanese also tend to believe that foreigners and English are a package, and I doubt the economic crunch will completely dispell that. |
I think it is almost comedic how badly they are going about teaching English. How many people on a regular basis point out all the glaring flaws. Yet nothing changes.
I agree that they need native speakers. They don't need a deluge of them, and then wield them improperly. They need to use them in classes where people want to learn. until Japan can get past the everyone wins a trophy mentality, they will not get anywhere with teaching English. I went to Gaidai, it took me 2 months to figure out that almost everyone's major was English!
At leas tin America we know we're going through the motions with Spanish. Plus we are not seriously trying to learn it. On top of having plenty of bilingual people. While Japan has very few Bilingual people. Many of who leave. I think it'd be cheaper to just hire high paid translators and just let this Englishnonsense implode.
Don't get me wrong I want my job in Japan. I just think they waste a lot of money on ALTs. Then again we ALTs help out the beer and sex industry. |
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elkarlo
Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Vince wrote: |
| elkarlo wrote: |
| I think they should just narrow the amount fo people they teach. Have a class for people who WANT to take English. Even make advanced classes and the such. They need to narrow the scope, as most people aren't going to get much out of sitting through 6 years of English classes. |
That makes sense to us, but they view it with different priorities. |
What is their priority? I really don't understand it. Do they want to be able to speak English, or want to just study English to be cool? Liek weeaboo studying Japanese to get weeaboo points? |
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JL
Joined: 26 Oct 2008
Posts: 241
Location: Las Vegas, NV USA
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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I'd just like to state for the record, that though there is a "JL wrote" two or so posts up, that wasn't me being quoted. I have yet to weigh in with my own take on ESL and Japan. There are myriad issues involved.
Good topic, though. I probably won't resist jumping in, at some point. |
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elkarlo
Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Wow, read in the Washington Post this morning, Japan in the 4thQ, their economy declined by 12.7%. That is in abad way. I don't see how long Japan as a whole can hold on. I'm not doom and glloming for the sake of it. On the rational side, this in no way can be seen as good. With the layoffs as of late in Japan, things are still getting worse. |
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Apsara
Joined: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 2142
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 1:52 pm Post subject: |
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| What do you see happening if Japan can no longer "hold on", elkarlo? What are the possible scenarios you are imagining? I actually don't think it's going to be all that bad- Armageddon is not around the corner. The next great Kanto earthquake still concerns me far more. |
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elkarlo
Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Apsara wrote: |
| What do you see happening if Japan can no longer "hold on", elkarlo? What are the possible scenarios you are imagining? I actually don't think it's going to be all that bad- Armageddon is not around the corner. The next great Kanto earthquake still concerns me far more. |
I was thinking of continuing the normal course that they have been on. Export econ that is really efficeient, whil eth edeomestic comsumer econ is pretty ineffiecent, so said the article anyways.
Since Japan has to import materials and foodstuffs to support their population. Couple that with declining exports. I can see standard of living stagnating, or in the short term declining. 12% is really a big dip. In the US it is 3.5% or so, and that hurts. The US has plenty of lnad, as well as other industries that can support us. The tourism inustry here is HUGE. More people visit Desney world then go to Japan. Something like 10million. Japan has nothing to fall back onto.
Oh yes the Earth quakes are real, and potentially disasterous. I am worried about my job in Japan. I think as an ALT my job prospects may dry up and I may not be able to stay(ideally for 2 years).
Also I think in extreme times countries cans wing wildly to the left of the right. See Russia, Venuzuela, Bolivia, and the such. Now I'm not saying that would be repeated in Japan. Yet those same sentiments can be copied here in the form of extreme protectionism. Or as it seems to be, fire the gaijin first.
I guess as i am in transition I can be be harder. I'm still waiting for my Visa info from my BOE  |
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Apsara
Joined: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 2142
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:27 pm Post subject: |
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As an ALT you will probably have one of the safer jobs around- Japan is not going to drop English from its school curriculums any time soon, and the idea of needing an ALT is pretty institutionalised.
Eikaiwa jobs are far dicier I would say, but even so I haven't heard of any layoffs, whereas in many other industries people are being laid off left, right and centre. The natural fairly high attrition rate probably takes care of any need to make people redundant in the eikaiwa industry. |
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GambateBingBangBOOM
Joined: 04 Nov 2003
Posts: 2021
Location: Japan
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:54 pm Post subject: |
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| elkarlo wrote: |
More people visit Desney world then go to Japan. Something like 10million. Japan has nothing to fall back onto.
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But both countries are now fingerprinting (and Japan is photographing, not sure about US) foreigners as they enter the country! If that doesn't boost tourism, I don't know what will!
Japan's economy is dropping so rapidly because Japanese people are panicking and so buying NOTHING. And they're doing that because of the daily news reports of how bad it is. |
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elkarlo
Joined: 08 Dec 2008
Posts: 240
Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 3:26 pm Post subject: |
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Aspara, I know that an ALT is a little safer, but still. I like to worry. Think of me as a Jewish Grandma if that helps.
I guess turnover for ALTs also helps us not get laid off. I mean how many stay 2 years?
GBBD,
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25061452-643,00.html I think they are buying into the recession really hard, and that has brought spending to a near halt.
I also think that a lot of Japan's industries are ineffiecent, outside of car production, and some other minor stuff. This may be a shift of prodcution to other countires, and may force Japan to shake things up. |
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TL
Joined: 07 Nov 2004
Posts: 76
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Feb 16, 2009 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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I have been following this thread and it's been frightening to witness the dramatic decline of economic activity in Japan. 12.7% decline in GDP is a depressionary figure. We are no longer talking about a recession if that figure doesn't improve this year.
Households are unwilling to spend as mentioned and people are losing their jobs. It's a dark time for Japan and the world. |
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