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007
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 2684
Location: UK/Veteran of the Magic Kingdom
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 Posted: Tue Apr 20, 2010 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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D'OH!
Uncle Sam under nuclear attack! 
NCTBA= Nuclear Corporation of Toxic Bombs Armament! |
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7atetan
Joined: 01 Jan 2010
Posts: 93
Location: Not in the Mediterranean Sea
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| Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:57 pm Post subject: |
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| johnslat wrote: |
Dear 7atetan,
"The place is a revolution waiting to happen."
I kind of doubt that. Unlike the Shah of Iran (and ruling a country with a much smaller population,) the Saudi Royal Family has been shrewd enough to figure out that it's a good idea to keep much of the citizenry fairly well satisfied economically.[...] |
True but what you say depends on a few suppositions: (1) The wealth does not dry out (oil revenue continues, no economic crises, no natural disasters, etc.), and (2) A critical mass of malcontents does not form to whom principle (be it democracy, be it islamofascism) takes precedence over wealth. I don't reckon there's an imminent danger of either condition changing but it is quite beyond doubt that at least one WILL change within the next 10-20 years.
When the revolution does come to pass eventually, the incumbent regime will far more likely be replaced by a Salafist junta than an enlightened government of the people, by the...etc. I would be deeply uncomfortable with them having access to nuclear technology, let alone nuclear weapons. As if Pakistan and North Korea aren't chastening enough lessons! |
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johnslat
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 13859
Location: Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA
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| Posted: Wed Apr 21, 2010 4:20 pm Post subject: |
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Dear 7atetan,
Your Number 2: "(2) A critical mass of malcontents does not form to whom principle (be it democracy, be it islamofascism) takes precedence over wealth."
is, in my opinion, extremely unlikely (but I'd be interested in seeing whether other posters who have a lot of experience in the Kingdom would agree or not.)
As for yout Number 1:
"(1) The wealth does not dry out (oil revenue continues, no economic crises, no natural disasters, etc.)"
well, I believe I already covered that.
"Now, if the cash flow should ever slow down significantly, well, then the Royal Family had better start packing their suitcases."
Regards,
John |
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7atetan
Joined: 01 Jan 2010
Posts: 93
Location: Not in the Mediterranean Sea
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| Posted: Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:49 pm Post subject: |
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| johnslat wrote: |
Dear 7atetan,
Your Number 2: "(2) A critical mass of malcontents does not form to whom principle (be it democracy, be it islamofascism) takes precedence over wealth."
is, in my opinion, extremely unlikely (but I'd be interested in seeing whether other posters who have a lot of experience in the Kingdom would agree or not.)[...] |
By "critical mass" I do not mean a majority, even a relative majority. It can be as simple as getting core groups of diehards scattered across the country, especially if they have a penchant for causing trouble, up to and including terrorism. So far the regime has done a decent job of keeping them contained but one never knows... |
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