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bulgogiboy · Joined: 23 Feb 2005 Posts: 803

I'm supposed to be going to KSA next month, to take up a teaching position, and am interested to hear the views of people on the ground there about whether or not the current Middle East unrest is having any effect on the Saudi people? Do you think there is much chance of demonstrations spreading to KSA?

veiledsentiments · Joined: 20 Feb 2003 Posts: 17644 Location: USA

What is your tolerance for uncertainty? There is no predicting what will or won't happen and it doesn't matter if you are currently living in Saudi or watching Al-Jezeera from somewhere on the net.

There is an underclass of Shia in Saudi who have caused problems in the past. Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that most of them live in the eastern parts of Saudi... near the major oil fields.

You know that they are watching very closely what happens with their fellow Shia in Bahrain. Personally I would want to be on the other side of the country if possible. Cool

Jiddah?

VS

Mia Xanthi · Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 3:00 am Post subject:

I agree with VS on this one. There is probably little chance of trouble in KSA, and even the tiniest bit of trouble would be put down quickly, with the Saudi National Guard making Khaddafi look like a saint.

However, if there were to be serious trouble, it would be in the Eastern Province among the Shia. A serious uprising could threaten the oil fields, and crushing a Shia revolt in some horrific way (like bombing Qatif out of existence) in theory at least could bring on a conflict with Iran.

This is a wild worst-case scenario that is highly, highly unlikely to happen, but even with the current unrest in Bahrain I would advise anyone who is skittish about these thing to take the west coast option if there is one.

Bebsi · Joined: 07 Feb 2005 Posts: 958

There are also some comments on this area in another thread "King Abdullah also ordered..."

My view is that although there will be bigger and louder protests in the kingdom than ever before, they are not likely to lead to any serious instability. There are some serious issues needing to be addressed, yes, but these actually affect the middle-classes more than anyone else, and middle-classes are not in the habit of staging government overthrows.

I don't agree with Mia Xanthi that there would be a violent backlash to protests. I think the Saudi government has more subtle means of dealing with dissent. As protests increased, reforms would be granted, to release the pressure.

Middle-classes protest in the west, sometimes successfully, sometimes not. In those cases, protests are for reforms, i.e. changes within the system, not in the system itself. I think that this is what will transpire in KSA, albeit for a slightly different reason, namely that those who have something to gain, have more to lose. Or maybe not so different!

Now, in the unlikely event that anyone actually tried to overthrow the government, then I think that would be a very different matter, and I certainly wouldn't want to be hanging around the streets of KSA were that to happen.

It's all about motive, and Saudis just don't have the same motives as Libyans did in wanting to get rid of Gaddhafi. Saudis mostly respect their royalty, they just want them to do things differently. Most Libyans, on the other hand, were of the view that the Colonel just had to go. [What is the latest there, anyway?]

I'd say to Bulgogiboy, if you're planning on going to Saudi, go there. You are very unlikely to be affected.

isabel · Joined: 07 Mar 2003 Posts: 510 Location: God's green earth

veiledsentiments · Joined: 20 Feb 2003 Posts: 17644 Location: USA

They have caused the problems because they are the ones with the reasons to do it... obviously.

VS

Mia Xanthi · Posted: Fri Feb 25, 2011 5:16 pm Post subject:

bulgogiboy · Joined: 23 Feb 2005 Posts: 803

Bebsi · Joined: 07 Feb 2005 Posts: 958

Bulgogiboy,

I really don't see a revolution in Saudi Arabia. Protests, yes, but that's very different.

You mention malaria, are you going to Jizan by any chance? If so, it cannot quite be described as 'near Jeddah'. It's at least 8 hours' drive from Jeddah, in the extreme southwest.

Mia,

I take your point about what happened 25 years ago. But I do think they'd react differently now. It would all depend on the nature and size of the protest. Perceptions, levels of media coverage, and methods of communication have changed immensely in the past quarter century.

And if there were any threat to the oilfields, I'm certain they would react very strongly indeed. However, terrorism and street protests are not the same. And unless a government is possessed of a Gaddhafi level of paranoia, I don't think they would see a bunch or protesting students/women/young professionals as constituting a threat to the oilfields.