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my_way
Joined: 16 Feb 2010
Posts: 72
Location: tokyo
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 Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:38 am Post subject: thoughts on leaving tokyo |
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hi all.....i have been reading a lot and following this situation carefully. i am not one to panic, but this situation with the reactors is not getting better....not at all.
i really don't know who or what to believe and am considering getting out of japan for a week or so.
i do have a job, but nothing is more important than my health.
any thoughts?? |
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Apsara
Joined: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 2142
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:28 am Post subject: |
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Have a read of this excerpt which I posted on another thread, and if you are still worried, then perhaps you should leave.
Here is a worst case scenario from someone qualified to give one, the scientific advisor to the UK government:
"He also speculated what could happen in what he described as a "worst case scenario":
"The worst case scenario is that the cooling fails, that the containment vessel ruptures and they are not able to keep the temperature down. This would lead to a meltdown. As a result of this, the radioactive material would react with the concrete and cause an explosion. This is a big if. Even if this did happen, the radioactive material would only rise to about 500 metres high, compared to 30,000ft in Chernobyl. This is serious for the surrounding area, of course, and extending the exclusion zone from 20km to 30km is entirely appropriate".
Professor Beddington suggested that the risk to Tokyo and suburban centres was relatively low, as any radioactive material that escapes would fall close to the reactor. He added:
"The relative duration [of a radioactive release from Fukushima] would be hours at the absolute most. The worry or concern is for those working on the plant. Worries about larges centres of population...are not sensible concerns".
Apparently a level of about 0.809 microsieverts per hour was measured in Tokyo this morning, back down to normal levels of about 0.035 microsieverts by midday. These are tiny amounts. On any long-haul flight for example you will be exposed to around 5 microsieverts due to the altitude, just to give you some perspective.
I'm in Tokyo and I won't be going anywhere, but of course it's an individual decision.
Edited to correct numbers. |
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mstoffer
Joined: 17 Feb 2011
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:33 am Post subject: |
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| Apsara wrote: |
Have a read of this excerpt which I posted on another thread, and if you are still worried, then perhaps you should leave.
Here is a worst case scenario from someone qualified to give one, the scientific advisor to the UK government:
"He also speculated what could happen in what he described as a "worst case scenario":
"The worst case scenario is that the cooling fails, that the containment vessel ruptures and they are not able to keep the temperature down. This would lead to a meltdown. As a result of this, the radioactive material would react with the concrete and cause an explosion. This is a big if. Even if this did happen, the radioactive material would only rise to about 500 metres high, compared to 30,000ft in Chernobyl. This is serious for the surrounding area, of course, and extending the exclusion zone from 20km to 30km is entirely appropriate".
Professor Beddington suggested that the risk to Tokyo and suburban centres was relatively low, as any radioactive material that escapes would fall close to the reactor. He added:
"The relative duration [of a radioactive release from Fukushima] would be hours at the absolute most. The worry or concern is for those working on the plant. Worries about larges centres of population...are not sensible concerns".
Apparently a level of about 0.809 microsieverts per hour was measured in Tokyo this morning, back down to normal levels of about 0.035 microsieverts by midday. These are tiny amounts. On any long-haul flight for example you will be exposed to around 5 microsieverts due to the altitude, just to give you some perspective.
I'm in Tokyo and I won't be going anywhere, but of course it's an individual decision.
Edited to correct numbers. |
I agree with you and am also staying but the fact that the news keeps getting worse and worse and more ppl are leaving is a disturbing trend. |
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pnksweater
Joined: 24 Mar 2005
Posts: 173
Location: Tokyo, Japan
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:35 am Post subject: |
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| They may very well be overreacting, but two of my friends in Tokyo have bought tickets for a "holiday" outside of Japan. I think the after shocks, minimal food on the shelves at the grocery store, and the rapid deterioration of the situation at the Dai-ichi nuclear plant yesterday and today is enough to make anyone skittish. Even if it�s not going to be on the scale of Chernobyl, there�s plenty of room for bad scenarios, and Tokyo is well within the range of that bad scenario. |
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my_way
Joined: 16 Feb 2010
Posts: 72
Location: tokyo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:50 am Post subject: |
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the issue i'm struggling with is whether to trust the optimistic reports or not. i have always been skeptical of the media and gov't.
i have a job and a husband here, so while i am not considering leaving for good, i was also thinking of a holiday to HK.
thanks for any input or news.
i hope that everyone remains safe. |
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mstoffer
Joined: 17 Feb 2011
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 5:54 am Post subject: |
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| pnksweater wrote: |
| They may very well be overreacting, but two of my friends in Tokyo have bought tickets for a "holiday" outside of Japan. I think the after shocks, minimal food on the shelves at the grocery store, and the rapid deterioration of the situation at the Dai-ichi nuclear plant yesterday and today is enough to make anyone skittish. Even if it�s not going to be on the scale of Chernobyl, there�s plenty of room for bad scenarios, and Tokyo is well within the range of that bad scenario. |
Do you have some new source information to support that or are you just guessing? Please don't try to freak people out even more without showing some support, the media is doing a good enough job of that. |
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my_way
Joined: 16 Feb 2010
Posts: 72
Location: tokyo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:05 am Post subject: |
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i agree that tokyo is within range of a bad scenario and don't need any reports to confirm.
i asked for OPINIONS, and this is a reasonable opinion.
as i mentioned, i don't trust the media and read several 'alternative' news sources and publications online.
the japanese themselves are questioning the situation..... and it is comforting to me that they are.
this isn't a newspaper....people are free to write about their personal opinions and experiences....good or bad! |
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cvmurrieta
Joined: 10 Jul 2008
Posts: 209
Location: Sendai, Japan
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:25 am Post subject: |
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| Does anyone think I should leave Sendai for Yamagata even if my girlfriend does not want? I can still catch buses to Yamagata. |
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mstoffer
Joined: 17 Feb 2011
Posts: 27
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:41 am Post subject: |
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| my_way wrote: |
i agree that tokyo is within range of a bad scenario and don't need any reports to confirm.
i asked for OPINIONS, and this is a reasonable opinion.
as i mentioned, i don't trust the media and read several 'alternative' news sources and publications online.
the japanese themselves are questioning the situation..... and it is comforting to me that they are.
this isn't a newspaper....people are free to write about their personal opinions and experiences....good or bad! |
Yeah that is exactly why I asked if it was his/her guess or from a source since he/she stated it as if it was a fact. Seriously though people in Japan and their families and friends (like mine) at home are freaking out enough so if you think Tokyo is at serious risk then please state it is your own un-supported opinion or provide some support. If you wanted to start a "20-something year old English teachers use their own knowledge to determine worst case scenarios of power plant meltdowns" topic then please call it that. This is how panic spreads and it is not helpful right now. |
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Shonai Ben
Joined: 15 Feb 2003
Posts: 617
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:54 am Post subject: |
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| cvmurrieta wrote: |
| Does anyone think I should leave Sendai for Yamagata even if my girlfriend does not want? I can still catch buses to Yamagata. |
I'm in Sendai too chief.....no plans to leave though. |
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cat mother
Joined: 22 Sep 2009
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:01 am Post subject: |
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My_way, if you want to leave, just leave. No need to ask for opinions.
It's almost as if you expect us to validate your decision.
It's your decision, so do as you please.
I am staying. And I'm a lot closer to that plant than folks in Tokyo. |
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Glenski
Joined: 15 Jan 2003
Posts: 12844
Location: Hokkaido, JAPAN
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:15 am Post subject: |
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| pnksweater wrote: |
| They may very well be overreacting, but two of my friends in Tokyo have bought tickets for a "holiday" outside of Japan. I think the after shocks, minimal food on the shelves at the grocery store, and the rapid deterioration of the situation at the Dai-ichi nuclear plant yesterday and today is enough to make anyone skittish. Even if it�s not going to be on the scale of Chernobyl, there�s plenty of room for bad scenarios, and Tokyo is well within the range of that bad scenario. |
So, just what scenarios do you envision? No Chernobyl, good. So, you somewhat trust in the expert that Apsara posted on.
What is the problem you foresee?
Gas prices will go up. Temporarily.
Some food prices will go up. Temporarily.
Places like Hokkaido (which is on the same Hz frequency as Sendai, I believe, will have to supply electric power, and that may mean rolling blackouts up here. Temporarily and for a good cause!
What else?
Riots? Looting? Mutant ninja turtle creation? |
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the4th2001
Joined: 04 Oct 2010
Posts: 130
Location: Tokyo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:25 am Post subject: |
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| Glenski wrote: |
| What else? [...] Mutant ninja turtle creation? |
I don't want to make light of recent events, but I would actually love to see that. |
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my_way
Joined: 16 Feb 2010
Posts: 72
Location: tokyo
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| Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:39 am Post subject: |
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| cat mother wrote: |
My_way, if you want to leave, just leave. No need to ask for opinions.
It's almost as if you expect us to validate your decision.
It's your decision, so do as you please.
I am staying. And I'm a lot closer to that plant than folks in Tokyo. |
i truly cannot believe these kinds of responses....what is your problem?
people post here asking for advice all the time.
i haven't made a decision that needs validation, i was simply asking what people in tokyo were thinking.......
if you don't like my post and don't have anything to say then don't 
MOD EDIT: http://forums.eslcafe.com/job/viewtopic.php?t=87909&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=105 |
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