|
Job Discussion Forums
"The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Students and Teachers from Around the World!"
|
| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
Joew55
Joined: 15 Apr 2011
Posts: 5
|
 Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2011 6:59 pm Post subject: |
 |
|
| cheers mate! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
1st Sgt Welsh
Joined: 13 Dec 2010
Posts: 946
Location: Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 5:07 am Post subject: |
|
|
| GemGem wrote: |
Also had a quick query about travel insurance. I'm flying out on a one way ticket as not sure what I'll want to be doing in 12 months. Most annual travel insurance policies only cover trips with a return or open ticket.....
Anyone have any advice on any providers who do cover one way or any suggestions for alternatives?
|
I don't know how much travelling you have done GemGem but, just in case you are unaware, you can be denied entry into a country (unless you have permission in your visa) if you only have a one-way ticket. Technically immigration can require proof of departure. Might not a bad idea to check with the Vietnamese Consulate on this if you haven't already done so. One option may be to purchase a cheap Air Asia flight (or similar) out of Vietnam online now (for a later date after you arrive in VN) so you have proof of departure. When the Air Asia flight comes up - go away for a few days holiday to Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Singapore or whatever. Chances are there won't be a problem - I have been through more immigration areas in more airports than I can count and I have never been asked for proof of departure. But still ........
My understanding is that a lot of the bigger schools have arrangements when it comes to insurance and often you can get discounts with the insurance companies by going through your school's HR. As a temporary measure for the first few months this may be an option:
http://www.worldnomads.com/
I'm not saying they are the best or anything, but they are the ones I used. Never made a claim through them so I don't know what they are like in regards to this. The longer your policy - the better the rate and if you sign up for a few months (or longer) than it's not a bad deal (or at least I don't think so).
Last edited by 1st Sgt Welsh on Sun Apr 24, 2011 11:15 am; edited 2 times in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
sigmoid
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 1276
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
half moon
Joined: 17 Jul 2007
Posts: 49
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 11:17 am Post subject: |
|
|
I am pasting the article posted by Sigmoid because it is worth reading.
Warning***
If you have a sizable amount of VND in a bank account (read: savings from teaching) I highly suggest you consider selling at least some of it. Use VND for your daily transactions like paying rent, going out, etc., etc.,
The gov has been spouting this rhetoric (that all governments spout) that it has "monetary plans and policies to contain inflation." But....it's not working. Note the last sentence about the "lag effect" at the bottom. This is what was said last year, the year before, and the year before the year before......
Also, the authorities have passed a decree (for real) that transactions in Gold will be prohibited in the near future. (Source: all of the VNese newspapers). Yes, most (almost all) house are still built on gold.
Buying dollars if FORBIDDEN now. You cannot buy dollars, even at your own bank. You have to go on the street corner and pay an exorbitant rate.
They only want VND to be the currency of transactions inside the country.
I'm not negative, but when your savings from teaching goes down by over 9% overnight (the last devaluation, and the 4th devaluation) you ARE losing money.
There's a lot of unhappy talk about this by the locals.....
I advice all teachers and prospective teachers coming here to watch the situation. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
half moon
Joined: 17 Jul 2007
Posts: 49
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 11:21 am Post subject: |
|
|
Sorry, I forgot to past the article. Here is the article:
| Quote: |
Vietnam Inflation Accelerates to Fastest Pace Since 2008, Government Says
By Bloomberg News - Apr 24, 2011
Vietnam�s inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since 2008, putting pressure on the government to tighten policy further after almost doubling a key interest rate in less than six months.
Consumer prices climbed 17.51 percent in April from a year earlier, according to figures released by the General Statistics Office in Hanoi today. The rate is the highest since December 2008 and compares with the 13.89 percent pace last month. Prices rose 3.32 percent in April from March.
Policy makers have boosted the repurchase rate to 13 percent from 7 percent in November and cut the target for 2011 credit growth to tame inflation and regain investor confidence in the government�s ability to prevent the economy from overheating. Still, food and commodities make up a large share of household spending and increases in gasoline and power costs will fuel inflation, Standard & Poor�s said this month.
�Inflation shows little signs of responding to monetary and fiscal austerity just yet,� said Bill Stoops, chief investment officer at Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager Dragon Capital. �Government policies to slow inflation operate with a lag effect.� |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
1st Sgt Welsh
Joined: 13 Dec 2010
Posts: 946
Location: Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei
|
| Posted: Sun Apr 24, 2011 11:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
| half moon wrote: |
I am pasting the article posted by Sigmoid because it is worth reading.
Warning***
If you have a sizable amount of VND in a bank account (read: savings from teaching) I highly suggest you consider selling at least some of it. Use VND for your daily transactions like paying rent, going out, etc., etc.,
The gov has been spouting this rhetoric (that all governments spout) that it has "monetary plans and policies to contain inflation." But....it's not working. Note the last sentence about the "lag effect" at the bottom. This is what was said last year, the year before, and the year before the year before......
Also, the authorities have passed a decree (for real) that transactions in Gold will be prohibited in the near future. (Source: all of the VNese newspapers). Yes, most (almost all) house are still built on gold.
Buying dollars if FORBIDDEN now. You cannot buy dollars, even at your own bank. You have to go on the street corner and pay an exorbitant rate.
They only want VND to be the currency of transactions inside the country.
I'm not negative, but when your savings from teaching goes down by over 9% overnight (the last devaluation, and the 4th devaluation) you ARE losing money.
There's a lot of unhappy talk about this by the locals.....
I advice all teachers and prospective teachers coming here to watch the situation. |
Oh, absolutely! Unless you work for one of those schools that pay in greenbacks (which is the exception rather than the rule) you should be mindful of this. Whatever you do, don't close your bank account in your home country prior to coming over. Keep it open so you can you wire money back home regularly. Keep your savings there, not here. To squirrel away large amounts of dong into a Vietnamese bank account is, quite frankly, madness. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
spycatcher reincarnated
Joined: 19 May 2005
Posts: 236
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 2:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
I have a very different opinion to some other posters.
I believe that keeping your money in VND is an excellent option at this precise moment and is worth considering at other times as well.
Let's look at the present situation:
The VND is appreciating against the usd (for the last few days at least), and I don't feel it will substantially depreciate against the usd in the next 3-6 months (my gut feeling)
Interest rate achievable on VND is 14%
Interest rate achievable on usd in the States is about 0.5%
I feel it may be the best currency bet in the world at present!!
I agree that one has to be careful asnd if you see the black market rate begin to surpass the bank rate then you should think about switching currency.
If you put your VND in the bank at 14% pre annum for a 3 month period and after 2 months the black market starts to diverge from the bank rate you can get a 1 month loan, from the bank equivalent to your deposit and to also mature on the same date. This way you will not be officially be penalised for an early withdrawal, but in effect you are being penalised. This works out much better than just withdrawing the lot and forfeiting all your interest.
Let's see. Let's say I put 10,000,000 VND in to the bank at 14% pa. today at the exchange rate of 20,760
http://www.vietcombank.com.vn/en/Exchange%20Rate.asp
I'll will not manage this at all, regardless of what happens with blackmarket rates, etc. and wait and see the result in 3 months' time. I believe I will be substantially better off, in usd terms, than if I had this in usd in the States. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
1st Sgt Welsh
Joined: 13 Dec 2010
Posts: 946
Location: Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 2:51 am Post subject: |
|
|
| spycatcher reincarnated wrote: |
I have a very different opinion to some other posters.
I believe that keeping your money in VND is an excellent option at this precise moment and is worth considering at other times as well.
Let's look at the present situation:
The VND is appreciating against the usd (for the last few days at least), and I don't feel it will substantially depreciate against the usd in the next 3-6 months (my gut feeling)
Interest rate achievable on VND is 14%
Interest rate achievable on usd in the States is about 0.5%
I feel it may be the best currency bet in the world at present!!
I agree that one has to be careful asnd if you see the black market rate begin to surpass the bank rate then you should think about switching currency.
If you put your VND in the bank at 14% pre annum for a 3 month period and after 2 months the black market starts to diverge from the bank rate you can get a 1 month loan, from the bank equivalent to your deposit and to also mature on the same date. This way you will not be officially be penalised for an early withdrawal, but in effect you are being penalised. This works out much better than just withdrawing the lot and forfeiting all your interest.
Let's see. Let's say I put 10,000,000 VND in to the bank at 14% pa. today at the exchange rate of 20,760
http://www.vietcombank.com.vn/en/Exchange%20Rate.asp
I'll will not manage this at all, regardless of what happens with blackmarket rates, etc. and wait and see the result in 3 months' time. I believe I will be substantially better off, in usd terms, than if I had this in usd in the States. |
Very interesting and thoughtful post spycatcher and good to hear a contrasting view. You may well be right but personally I don't want to risk it, at least not at the moment. Maybe I'm just too cautious. Also I have heard too many horror stories of people losing out because of devaluation and inflation. I'll certainly keep my ear to the ground and bear in mind what you have said and, who knows, in the not-too-distant future maybe I'll be doing a complete backflip on this  . |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
spycatcher reincarnated
Joined: 19 May 2005
Posts: 236
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 6:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
Inflation is a different topic.
I can get 14% on my VND at the moment and I bet that in one year�s time inflation in Vietnam (the trailing CPI figure) will be lower than 14%. I feel Vietnam will keep good control over causes of domestic inflation, but it can�t do much about imported inflation. IE rises in commodity prices.
I see the long term rates are lower than the short term rates so this suggests the banks feel that inflation will fall.
http://www.vietcombank.com.vn/en/Interest%20Rate.asp |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Brighton Blade
Joined: 12 Oct 2010
Posts: 16
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 10:18 am Post subject: |
|
|
| GemGem wrote: |
Hey guys,
Been reading this thread with interest as I'm also heading out to HCMC mid-May, really looking forward to it! And yes, I know it will be tough - moving anywhere new is - especially when it's going to be so different to UK life, but hey ho is my motto - everywhere has downsides - it's just a case of how much you let them bother you.
It may have changed, it may not be the "golden age" etc etc but that's all relative surely and relatively Vietnam is still going to be a fantastic place to live and work in - personally I can't wait!
Soooo I'm hoping before I get out there next month some of you expert ex pats may be able to offer some expert advice - I'm really into running, also want to carry on my interest in literature, maybe join a book club?, LOVE jazz music and would like to take up some kind of (very very) amateur art interest - any suggestions or contacts much appreciated!
Gem |
I think we could be friends! Send me a message. I wonder if we're heading to the same school...
Last edited by Brighton Blade on Tue Apr 26, 2011 10:34 am; edited 2 times in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Mattingly
Joined: 03 Jul 2008
Posts: 249
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 10:31 am Post subject: |
|
|
| spycatcher reincarnated wrote: |
Let's see. Let's say I put 10,000,000 VND in to the bank at 14% pa. today at the exchange rate of 20,760
http://www.vietcombank.com.vn/en/Exchange%20Rate.asp
I'll will not manage this at all, regardless of what happens with blackmarket rates, etc. and wait and see the result in 3 months' time. I believe I will be substantially better off, in usd terms, than if I had this in usd in the States. |
Spy C,
Thanks for the information. It helps. I've been wondering is the persistent negativity toward the VND is warranted.
One question about the 14% savings rate, as I am a bit confused of how it works.
I actually have 9,000,000 (9 Million Dong) in my savings account at my bank and yes it states it pays 14%.
However.....I've had this 9 million in my saving account for 4-5 months, and I have never, not once, gotten the interest payment added to my account.
So.....How often is the 14% deposited to my savings account? Every quarter (3 months)? Once a year? Every month?
It's the "Aussie New Zealand bank."
Thank if you can help with information on this. I'm curious. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
The Mad Hatter
Joined: 16 May 2010
Posts: 165
|
| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 7:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
I don't get it Spycatcher. If you have %17 inflation in April over last year as the article states, and your bank gives you %14 interest....do we factor in the devaluation of %9 in Dong Dollar Cary trade- or will that just further confuse things. Doesnt look exactly like one keeps ahead of inflation. Do you mean its good because we stand to lose less than at home?
And who pays in dollars these days? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
spycatcher reincarnated
Joined: 19 May 2005
Posts: 236
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:34 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
| Thanks for the information. It helps. I've been wondering is the persistent negativity toward the VND is warranted. |
Don�t get me wrong, for historical reasons (very poor government management over the last few years) I am still negative on the VND. The issue is how negative one is and whether this is compensated for by high interest rates.
I believe at sometime the VND will start a long upward surge against the usd, but when this will happen is anyone�s guess (1-5 years), and only if the government gets its act together. IMHO the main problem at the moment is not the fundamentals, but the loss in confidence in the currency, both by locals and foreigners.
| Quote: |
One question about the 14% savings rate, as I am a bit confused of how it works.
I actually have 9,000,000 (9 Million Dong) in my savings account at my bank and yes it states it pays 14%.
However.....I've had this 9 million in my saving account for 4-5 months, and I have never, not once, gotten the interest payment added to my account.
So.....How often is the 14% deposited to my savings account? Every quarter (3 months)? Once a year? Every month? |
I guess you have your money in a current account so you are probably earning no or negligible interest. You need to put your money in for a fixed term (not sure of bank terminology). Go to the bank and ask. http://www.vietcombank.com.vn/en/Interest%20Rate.asp
If you put 9 million VND in at 14% for 3 months I would imagine they would calculate as follows:
9,000,000 VND x 0.14 interest rate /12months x 3 months= 315,000 VND payable when it matures in 3 months� time
| Quote: |
| I don't get it Spycatcher. If you have %17 inflation in April over last year as the article states, and your bank gives you %14 interest....do we factor in the devaluation of %9 in Dong Dollar Cary trade- or will that just further confuse things. Doesnt look exactly like one keeps ahead of inflation. Do you mean its good because we stand to lose less than at home? |
You either need to think in Vietnam terms or foreign country terms. You can not add 17 and 9 together.
Looking back over the last year then yes we have probably lost money as inflation has been 17% and I guess this is higher than the 1 year interest rate was offered a year ago.
Here we need to look forward. We can get 14% now and to achieve a real return on our money the inflation rate in 1 year�s time will need to be less than 14%.
This may or may not explain it better:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_interest_rate
One has to remember that the headline figures that we see for interest rates are forward rates, and the inflation rates we see are trailing rates. IE they cover different periods.
I do feel that for the UK and USA the next 12 months will see negative real interest rates. So I believe /hope we will have positive rates here, and negative rates in the west.
BTW - I'm no economist, just take an interest in these things. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
I'm With Stupid
Joined: 03 Sep 2010
Posts: 432
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 10:16 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| spycatcher reincarnated wrote: |
| Quote: |
| Thanks for the information. It helps. I've been wondering is the persistent negativity toward the VND is warranted. |
Don�t get me wrong, for historical reasons (very poor government management over the last few years) I am still negative on the VND. The issue is how negative one is and whether this is compensated for by high interest rates. |
I don't think it is, because when they devalue the currency, they also effectively increase the interest of any USD savings you have. Your VND savings have an interest rate of 14% minus the recent 9% devaluation. Your USD savings have an interest rate of 3% (Vietcombank rate) plus the 9% increase in value against the VND. So within Vietnam, you're looking at a rate of 5% for VND savings versus 12% for USD savings. Of course, all of this depends on the assumption of further currency devaluations, but from what I've heard, this is a pretty safe bet.
One thing that always confused me, though, is that we always hear about how much the Vietnamese economy is growing. I thought countries with fast-growing economies tended to have currencies that increase in value, not decrease? The value of Brazil's currency has increased massively, and we all know about the dodgy practices of China desperately trying to stop their's increasing. So why is the Dong not rocketing if the economy is expanding as quickly as claimed? |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
spycatcher reincarnated
Joined: 19 May 2005
Posts: 236
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 28, 2011 7:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Quote: |
spycatcher reincarnated wrote:
Quote:
Thanks for the information. It helps. I've been wondering is the persistent negativity toward the VND is warranted.
Don�t get me wrong, for historical reasons (very poor government management over the last few years) I am still negative on the VND. The issue is how negative one is and whether this is compensated for by high interest rates.
I don't think it is, because when they devalue the currency, they also effectively increase the interest of any USD savings you have. Your VND savings have an interest rate of 14% minus the recent 9% devaluation. Your USD savings have an interest rate of 3% (Vietcombank rate) plus the 9% increase in value against the VND. So within Vietnam, you're looking at a rate of 5% for VND savings versus 12% for USD savings. Of course, all of this depends on the assumption of further currency devaluations, but from what I've heard, this is a pretty safe bet. |
NB: I admit that we have probably lost money over the last year, but I am looking forward so the 9% devaluation (which I believe was really a 7% devaluation because the trading range was altered as well) is not relevent to my argument. In your argument I agree that you can take the 9% off the 14% to get to 5%, but can't see how you can also add 9% to the 3% as well. You can't have it both ways. Anyway I think there may have been more than 1 devaluation over the last year.
So I am saying that you can get 3% in Vietnam on the usd and 14% on the VND. If you went fro VND and in 1 year's time the VND devalued by less than 11% then VND would have been the better decision. NB: I think it is very difficult to forecast what the VND will do more than 3-6 months from here so I have suggested a 3 month term.
| Quote: |
| One thing that always confused me, though, is that we always hear about how much the Vietnamese economy is growing. I thought countries with fast-growing economies tended to have currencies that increase in value, not decrease? The value of Brazil's currency has increased massively, and we all know about the dodgy practices of China desperately trying to stop their's increasing. So why is the Dong not rocketing if the economy is expanding as quickly as claimed? |
Many issues here, but many of these countries have trade surpluses whereas Vietnam officially has a trade deficit. But as I have mentioned before I believe the main reason the currency is devaluing is because the Vietnamese have no faith in their own currency and have been selling it as fast as they can. Maybe when sentiment changes it will start apreciating. |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
This page is maintained by the one and only Dave Sperling.
Contact Dave's ESL Cafe
Copyright © 2018 Dave Sperling. All Rights Reserved.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
