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sigmoid
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 1276
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 Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:41 am Post subject: Trying to stabilise an economy beset by multiple challenges |
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It looks like VN's economy is still in danger. If you're teaching there you should probably have a good plan B to implement when the house of cards falls.
Donors urge Vietnam to speed up economic reforms
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/donors-urge-vietnam-speed-economic-reforms-083739808.html
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International donors on Tuesday urged Vietnam to accelerate efforts to restructure its economy and warned the communist country to improve its rights record or risk jeopardising its economic success.
Vietnam, which earlier this year refocused its attention away from growth to stabilising the economy, is battling Asia's highest inflation rate of around 20 percent and urgently needs to push through economic reforms, donors said.
"It would be much easier for Vietnam to pursue its restructuring agenda now than have to restructure after it's hit by a crisis," said Victoria Kwakwa, World Bank country director for Vietnam, at the donors' meeting in Hanoi.
Since February, policy makers have been trying to stabilise an economy beset by multiple challenges including dwindling foreign reserves, a yawning trade deficit, downward pressure on the dong and runaway inflation.
The country needs to proceed with reform of the banking sector, privatise state-owned enterprises, simplify administrative procedures and do more to fight rampant corruption, donors said at the meeting.
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TimkinMS
Joined: 18 Oct 2005
Posts: 86
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| Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 5:04 am Post subject: |
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Enrollments are down all over, in both Saigon and Hanoi.
Many directors, coordinators and teachers are speculating on why.
There is no study or comprehensive survey available, of course.
We think the logical assumption is the slowing economy has caused some to suspend their English studies.
If the reason for declining enrollments was a maturing market or changing market, these students would be enrolled in different schools, not just disappear off the radar all-together. |
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The Mad Hatter
Joined: 16 May 2010
Posts: 165
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| Posted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 7:50 pm Post subject: |
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| Well where is all this money to keep putting up these new skyscrapers coming from? It is so wealthy from the looks of it it seems like the economy is doing just fine with a huge potential for unlimited growth. |
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bertsell
Joined: 13 Dec 2010
Posts: 1
Location: Vietnam
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| Posted: Sat Dec 10, 2011 4:22 am Post subject: Money for Skyscrapers |
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| Is it possible that a lot of this money for skyscrapers is borrowed or subsidized by the government? |
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The Mad Hatter
Joined: 16 May 2010
Posts: 165
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| Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:02 am Post subject: |
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| The Fed reserve made massive direct loans all over the world without telling anyone. Maybe it has something to do with that. |
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Biaom
Joined: 18 Dec 2011
Posts: 19
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| Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:58 am Post subject: |
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Did the fed give loans to banks all over the world?  |
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sigmoid
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 1276
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| Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2012 7:27 am Post subject: |
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Vietnam to adjust interest rates, weaken currency, chief banker says
http://www.thanhniennews.com/index/pages/20120111-vietnam-to-adjust-interest-rates--weaken-currency--chief-banker-says.aspx
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Vietnam will adjust policy interest rates to �more suitable� levels after the first quarter and weaken the dong as much as 3 percent this year, central bank Governor Nguyen Van Binh said.
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Vietnam faces Asia�s fastest price gains, a trade deficit, risks in the banking sector and slowing economic growth as the global recovery falters. While Indonesia and Thailand have cut borrowing costs in recent weeks to shield expansion, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund said in December that Vietnam may undermine progress toward economic stability if it loosens monetary policy too soon.
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The banking sector is showing signs of stress and asset quality remains a �concern� given �unusually high� credit growth in recent years, the World Bank said last month.
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Vietnam�s inflation rate in December moderated from 19.83 percent in November. It remains the fastest in a basket of 17 Asia-Pacific economies tracked by Bloomberg. |
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spycatcher reincarnated
Joined: 19 May 2005
Posts: 236
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| Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 7:10 am Post subject: |
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Think it was about 6 months ago this guy said the VND wouldn't depreciate by more than 1% during the rest of the year (2011), and of course nobody believed him. Turns out that he was correct. So now, for the first time for a few years at least, a Vietnamese with finance clout actually has some credibility.
Before he recently came out with his 2-3% depreciation for this year, most were forecasting considerably more (5-8%). More recently however, and with the black market down to about 21,000 people are beginning to listen to him even more. |
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The Mad Hatter
Joined: 16 May 2010
Posts: 165
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| Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2012 8:27 pm Post subject: |
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| What role does the world bank play? Aren't they purveying loans that can never be repaid to move in for collateral when they default? |
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London Bridge
Joined: 06 May 2008
Posts: 34
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:20 am Post subject: |
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The bottom line is: the VN economy is slowing down. There is still growth in the 5-6% range, as I recall reading that yesterday in one of the financial rags.
But prices on staples like food have many adult students of mine talking about it.
It is not possible to calculate the unemployment rate in VN, but we can assume there is a slow down, if even a small one.
Real estate is frozen as it's over-valued.
Has anyone heard of the new controversial annual tax on ALL motorbikes and cars.
The govt is embezzling and wasting lots of money, even though it realizes it needs revenue to improve infrastructure it the 2 largests cities.
It's possible within 5 years there could be discontent. Enough discontent for the people here to even express it. |
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London Bridge
Joined: 06 May 2008
Posts: 34
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| Posted: Sat Jan 21, 2012 4:28 am Post subject: |
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The bottom line is: the VN economy is slowing down. There is still growth in the 5-6% range, as I recall reading that yesterday in one of the financial rags.
But prices on staples like food have many adult students of mine talking about it.
It is not possible to calculate the unemployment rate in VN, but we can assume there is a slow down, if even a small one.
Real estate is frozen as it's over-valued.
Has anyone heard of the new controversial annual tax on ALL motorbikes and cars.
The govt is embezzling and wasting lots of money, even though it realizes it needs revenue to improve infrastructure it the 2 largests cities.
It's possible within 5 years there could be discontent. Enough discontent for the people here to even express it. |
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sigmoid
Joined: 21 Jan 2003
Posts: 1276
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| Posted: Mon Mar 05, 2012 3:40 pm Post subject: Risk of Collapse |
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Vietnam to Buy Bad Debt From Banks to Ease Risk of Collapse
full article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/vietnam-to-buy-bad-debt-from-banks-to-ease-risk-of-collapse.html
Some excerpts:
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Vietnam will buy bad debt from lenders under a plan approved by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung this month, as the Southeast Asian nation seeks to prevent a collapse in the banking system.
�It sounds something like a bailout or at least putting things in place to allow them to bail out the banks if necessary,� Marc Djandji, Ho Chi Minh City-based head of research at Viet Capital Securities Joint-Stock Company, said in a telephone interview today. �What they want is to avoid any type of banking system crisis.�
Questions about the health of Vietnam�s lenders are underpinning concerns over the stability of the country�s economy, with the nation stepping up efforts to fix a banking system hobbled by bad debt. Rapid credit growth in recent years has fueled a trade deficit and Asia�s fastest inflation, prompting depositors to favor short-term savings and crimping funding for long-term loans.
Vietnam�s central bank said last week it�s ready to force mergers among weak lenders, and Dung has ordered the authority to �solve� a shortage of funds after the credit crunch forced thousands of companies out of business.
Bad Debt
Bad loans in Vietnam may exceed official forecasts by as much as three times, and bad debt may �rise sharply,� according to U.K.-based Capital Economics. The Vietnam Association of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises estimates about 150,000 companies failed or shut down operations due to financial difficulties last year, or about a third of the country�s companies.
�The key question, which is still very unclear in Vietnam, is how they will define bad debt,� said Alain Cany, the Ho Chi Minh City-based chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam. �The government is not rich enough to absorb too much.�
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LettersAthruZ
Joined: 25 Apr 2010
Posts: 466
Location: North Viet Nam
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Risk of Collapse |
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| sigmoid wrote: |
Vietnam to Buy Bad Debt From Banks to Ease Risk of Collapse
full article: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-05/vietnam-to-buy-bad-debt-from-banks-to-ease-risk-of-collapse.html
Some excerpts:
| Quote: |
Vietnam will buy bad debt from lenders under a plan approved by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung this month, as the Southeast Asian nation seeks to prevent a collapse in the banking system.
�It sounds something like a bailout or at least putting things in place to allow them to bail out the banks if necessary,� Marc Djandji, Ho Chi Minh City-based head of research at Viet Capital Securities Joint-Stock Company, said in a telephone interview today. �What they want is to avoid any type of banking system crisis.�
Questions about the health of Vietnam�s lenders are underpinning concerns over the stability of the country�s economy, with the nation stepping up efforts to fix a banking system hobbled by bad debt. Rapid credit growth in recent years has fueled a trade deficit and Asia�s fastest inflation, prompting depositors to favor short-term savings and crimping funding for long-term loans.
Vietnam�s central bank said last week it�s ready to force mergers among weak lenders, and Dung has ordered the authority to �solve� a shortage of funds after the credit crunch forced thousands of companies out of business.
Bad Debt
Bad loans in Vietnam may exceed official forecasts by as much as three times, and bad debt may �rise sharply,� according to U.K.-based Capital Economics. The Vietnam Association of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises estimates about 150,000 companies failed or shut down operations due to financial difficulties last year, or about a third of the country�s companies.
�The key question, which is still very unclear in Vietnam, is how they will define bad debt,� said Alain Cany, the Ho Chi Minh City-based chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam. �The government is not rich enough to absorb too much.�
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I think it's really cool that they're starting to put articles like this in Thanh Nien News online and they're putting articles about Government corruption in The Viet Nam News!
You would have never seen this piece in print anywhere in Viet Nam as recently as one year ago because of Government censorship and trying to hide the bad news to keep the picture roses and rainbows!!
I'M VERY concerned about hyper-inflation here....."zombie" banks......(banks that, right now, don't have the liquidity on hand to cover deposits because the cash has already been sent out in the form of bad loans).....it's not a rosy future here economically....don't think that South Korea and Japan and Singapore are going to give us a Greece-style bailout.....I MIGHT hafta look at heading out, sadly!!  |
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mark_in_saigon
Joined: 20 Sep 2009
Posts: 837
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| Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 4:18 pm Post subject: how can this be? |
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| 150,000 companies failed or shut down operations due to financial difficulties last year, or about a third of the country�s companies. |
This is one of those things you read that just drive you batty. No way can 1/3 of the nation's companies failed. I mean, there are huge numbers of independent folks selling food and stuff, those are not companies, right? Not in my definition, and they would be the ones going under in greater number, or it would seem. If 1/3 of a nation's companies had gone under, it would be worse than a depression, it would be a massive wipe out. Yet, people are still eating, drinking coffee and beer, smoking, driving in circles, life is going on pretty much as normal. I will be the first to admit, the more I understand this system the more I understand how little I really understand about this system. But I just cannot find that 1/3 to be a credible number, and really, I think any assumptions we make about the economy have to always consider that we can never really know what is going on inside the guts of the machine. Not to say things are great, just saying, we never know, but what we think we know, we don't know that either.
I could talk all night about the businesses sitting empty, with lots of stock on the shelves, seems like we have about 4 times as many coffee shops, karaoke places, shoe stores, clothing stores, you name it, as needed. Yet this has been going on for a long time. One could talk forever about the housing going up, crazy, quarter million dollar houses or more, nothing cheap going up, in a land where one would not earn that in two lifetimes. Young people driving nice motos everywhere, certainly they have never earned enough to buy a nice moto, but most of them have one. It really just makes no real sense to me, and I think whatever we think we know is suspect. |
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Mattingly
Joined: 03 Jul 2008
Posts: 249
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| Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:22 am Post subject: |
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One thing that is certain is that there are indeed a lot of bad loans out there.
How deep and far it goes, we don't know. I am not even sure if the authorities know, even though they try to monitor and regulate the banks closely.
T.I.V.
One poster noted the high inflation. Add to that, VND devaluation.
Enrollments are down, and competition is stronger for teaching jobs now. |
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