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[nicenicegaijin]

http://world.time.com/2013/03/10/two-years-after-fukushima-japan-worries-about-the-next-big-quake/

from the Earthquake research institute.

Has anyone made any plans? I have cut out any travel to Tokyo and I have given up my uni classes in Tokyo I used to do on my research day. I found some extra classes near my house. Do people think this article is scaremongering and if so why would Earthquake Research Institute, at the University of Tokyo conduct research on it, if it was not a possibility?

[Pitarou]

The article is two years old. The "70% chance by 2016" figures have certainly been revised since then.

In any case, it's common knowledge that the next "big one" could strike at any time, and we have to prepare for it. The information in that article changes nothing about that.

In my family's case, we do the standard disaster preparedness stuff. We have a few days' supplies of food, fuel, sanitary supplies, and so on in a cupboard somewhere.

When I'm traveling, I also think about what might happen if I'm stuck away from home for a few days. I have to take medicine every day, so I bring a few days' supply with me. If it's cold, I might pack a mylar blanket. That kind of thing.

[water rat]

Why propagate such trash? You are nothing but an agitating troll, OP.

I practically minored in earth science, and have read every geology article I could get my hands on for decades now. What this has taught me is that one does not have to have minored, or majored, in earth science or have read more than half a dozen articles on news articles on earthquake prediction to know that there is no such thing as precise earthquake prediction. Unless one can hear a prolonged creaking sound that seems to be coming from maybe ten miles beneath one's feet, no one, but no one, can have much of an idea that an earthquake is imminent.

It is utter nonsense to imagine geologists can predict a precise time and place of an quake a handful of years in advance. Either you are completely stupid, or you believe we are.

Your post is nothing but self-serving scare-mongering to call attention to yourself. Give it up.

[nicenicegaijin]

trash, so you are calling the university of Tokyo's research team trash? I am sure they wouldn't be too pleased. Everyone knows that earthquakes cannot be predicted precisely, that is why they say a 70% chance. I.e. there is a 30% chance it won't happen. I find it amusing someone with a minor in earth science thinks they know more than geologists who study these things.

Pitarou,

do you know if there have been any revised articles on this subject you have come across?

I for one never stock water or supplies, we keep stocking up but then end up using the earthquake stocks instead of going to the store to buy more cause we are lazy about that kind of thing. I remember the day of 3/11 I hadn't charged my cell phone, didn't have any gas car in the or water. Luckily where I live it wasn't a problem.

[water rat]

[nicenicegaijin]

Ok so the researchers at the University of Tokyo, the #1 ranked university in Japan and I think something like 10th or so in the world have research findings that are trash. By saying such statements you some across as a person of less than normal intelligence. Maybe you are just trolling. I am impressed by panels of experts, I would say most intelligent people are. I am sure most people would find their opinions based on their research more valid than than those of an English conversation teacher in China who is just stating an opinion.

I didn't just see the article in Time, similar things have been on Japanese tv, but since you don't live here you wouldn't know that.

Yes, I refuse to go into Tokyo. I don't need to go into Tokyo and I quit the uni where I was teaching 4 koma on my research day. I lost 160.000 per month due to this, but I felt it was better than having to into Tokyo and have to worry.

Earthquake safety techniques, you make me laugh. When the big one hits hiding under a table isn't going to help you. Millions of people will be burnt alive in the ensuing fires, fukushima will probably release more radiation and people may die suffer from radiation sickness if the winds are blowing north east. People will not be able to get home for days on end and there will be a shortage of food. People will die of thirst and hunger. Did you not see what happened in Kobe? it won't be any different if it happens in Tokyo. I plan to not be there if it happens. Say your prayers? I really doubt god exists as he wouldn't have created dispatch companies or eikaiwas.

[water rat]

[water rat]

Also consider: The University of Tokyo is in Tokyo, correct? So these hotshot geologists are just sitting there in their offices waiting for the big one to strike? If they truly thought their city was going to be destroyed why aren't they moving out of Tokyo?

You didn't answer my question about what if a big quake hits the place you live? Have your experts addressed that, or are places that are not Tokyo beneath their dignity to worry about?

If you're anywhere in Japan major earthquakes are a thing to be concerned about. How can you be sure the next big one won't have its epicenter just below your feet? Where will your experts be then? My guess will be that they'll be on TV boasting that their prediction was only some 30 km off and nine months early - a mere millimeter and a microsecond in geological terms.

[water rat]

One other thing. I love talking to you because I am a teacher and you are so obviously in need of instruction.

What is U of T's admirable reputation and ranking based upon? Is it their stunning record of earthquake prediction or is it they they have high entry standards and that anyone who gets in must do well for years on multiple-choice tests?

Are the UT experts graduates of UT, or did they come from less prestigious universities where the academic standards and precision of the earthquake predictions are absolute crap?

I really think you ought to have thought this through before you deprived yourself of 160,000 Yen a month. You are too easily impressed by suits on TV, my friend.

[nicenicegaijin]

universities rankings are based on may criteria, you can google them based on the ranking system you choose. It is not based on how difficult it is to pass their entrance exam.

Usually if you are working at a university, you need to have graduated from a university of a better or similar rank, not lower. That is a general unwritten rule.

I didn't deprive myself of all the money as I picked up 3 other koma just near my house. It wasn't that much of a loss of income as I would would always take the special train into tokyo that cost a fair bit. So the fact I drive a few minutes away offsets it. Besides that was my own decision, as I said I did not feel comfortable going into tokyo.

Good point why isn't anyone moving out of Tokyo? As you said it is a prediction and they clearly state there is a 30% chance it won't happen. Japanese are very stubborn, sentimental and fatalistic when it comes to where they live and work and if you told them there is a 100% chance of a quake, they would likely not move either.

I think I already addressed your question about if the quake hit my place, which is won't since there hasn't been one predicted there as there aren't any fault lines it would not be so large and the ground is solid. I would make my way to the nearest airport and fly out as soon as they resumed flights or go as far west as possible and assess the situation and plan the next move.

I doubt that I need instruction from a teacher as I am a professor at a university. That in itself shows I have reached a higher level of critical thinking and intellectualism than you. I do listen to what teachers have to say as I am not as arrogant as most university professors; however, you are talking rubbish. You do not know about how universities work or are run or how university research is carried out. So before you talk smack about the best university in Japan, you should at least have a PhD and have a good research record before you realize how difficult it is to carry out research that would be published in 1st tier journals and you would find out how it is no BS as you call it.

[Pitarou]

[kzjohn]

When I think of Tokyo population, I think of greater Tokyo.

So like 35 million.

(Who don't seem too spooked.)

[Pitarou]

Water rat, give it a rest. You're coming across as a pompous ass.

[nicenicegaijin]

http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/?page_id=173#title_1_10

here is the list of the people working in the research center. Waterrat, take a look at their bios and resumes. It is funny you think you know more than them. I have had a read of your posts and found out where you stand in the grand scheme of things. You have considered accepting unsolicited offers from universities in China where you currently work. If you are that low on the ladder, why do you go around criticizing such highly respected researchers at the ones at Todai?

These are your words water rat:
I've never taught in a Chinese university, only high schools. While it may be more prestigious to be a university professor rather than a high school teacher, high school students are a lot more motivated and willing, while college students just want to coast - or so I hear from virtually everyone I talk to about it here in China.

So you are a high school teacher with a BA, those are you qualifications, you have never even taught at a university, yet you know so much about them. You can probably get away with those kind of things in a hick backwater in China where everyone things the bs you spout is gospel just because you are a white, but here in Japan we are different and so is the Japan forum, so if you intend to post something here make sure it is of value.

[Pitarou]

And you're just as bad, nicenicegaijin, with an outburst like that.

Pack it in, the pair of you.